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Has the American Output Growth Path Experienced a Permanent Change?

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  • Thomas Lustenberger

Abstract

In this paper, I derive and apply three univariate methods and one bi-variate method to estimate permanent and transitory components of the American output growth path during the 1790 to 2017 period. The results show that statistical tests give little support to the hypothesis of significant permanent growth rate changes (univariate methods). The "special century" (1870-1970, as defined by Gordon (2016)) exhibited more volatile permanent shifts in the output level compared to recent decades (bivariate method).

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Lustenberger, 2018. "Has the American Output Growth Path Experienced a Permanent Change?," Working Papers 2018-14, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2018-14
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output growth; business cycle; permanent and transitory components;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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