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Indicateurs de conjoncture et marchés financiers

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  • Patrick Artus

Abstract

[eng] Indicators on the Current Economic Situation and Financial Markets, . by Patrick Artus.. . Traders on the financial markets follow the indicators on the current economic situation closely. Making use of these indicators, however, raises a number of problems, such as: are they reliable? Do they correspond to the real economic situation? Aren't the revised figures so different from the first figures published that the first ones do not mean anything at all? Is their effect actually felt over the short term or over the long term? The effect they are expected to have is often based on the reactions central banks are expected to have; do they follow the same indicators? We aim to answer these questions on the basis of the cases of France and the United States. [fre] Indicateurs de conjoncture et marchés financiers, . par Patrick Artus.. . Les opérateurs sur les marchés financiers suivent de près l'évolution des indicateurs de conjoncture. Leur utilisation soulève cependant un certain nombre de questions : sont-ils fiables ? Correspondent-ils à l'évolution économique réelle ? Leurs révisons ne sont-elles pas si importantes que le premier chiffre publié est sans signification ? Ont-ils effectivement un effet sur les marchés à court-terme ou à long terme ? Leur effet supposé résulte souvent des anticipations des réactions des banques centrales ; celles-ci suivent-elles les mêmes indicateurs ? Nous essayons de répondre à ces questions à partir des cas de la France et des Etats-Unis. [ger] Konjunkturindikatoren und Finanzmärkte, . von Patrick Artus.. . Die Akteure auf den Finanzmärkten verfolgen aufmerksam die Entwicklung der Konjunkturindikatoren. Ihre Auswertung wirft jedoch eine gewisse Anzahl von Fragen auf : sind sie zuverlässig ? Entsprechen sie der tatsächlichen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung ? Sind die Berichtigungen so unerheblich, dass der ersten veröffentlichten Zahl keine Bedeutung beizumessen ist ? Wirken sie sich kurz- oder langfristig tatsächlich auf die Märkte aus ? Ihre vermutete Auswirkung ist oftmals auf die Vorausberechnung der Reaktionen der Zentralbanken zurückzufiihren ; richten sich diese nach denselben Indikatoren aus ? Auf der Grundlage der französischen und amerikanischen Daten versuchen wir, diese Fragen zu beantworten. [spa] Indicadores de coyuntura y mercados financières, . por Patrick Artus.. . Los operadores de los mercados financières analizan con precision la evolución de los indicadores de coyuntura. No obstante, su utilización plantea algunos interrogates : ¿son fiables estos indicadores ? ¿Corresponden a la evolución económica real? ¿Acaso no pierde todo su significado la primera cifra publicada debido a la importancia de las revisiones? ¿Tienen realmente un efecto sobre los mercados a corto o a largo plazo? Su supuesto efecto suele ser el resultado de las anticipaciones de las reacciones de los bancos centrales, pero ¿utilizan estos bancos los mismos indicadores? En el presente artículo se intenta responder a estos interrogantes tomando como base el caso de Frantia y de los Estados Unidos de América.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Artus, 1991. "Indicateurs de conjoncture et marchés financiers," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 99(3), pages 31-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1991_num_99_3_5240
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1991.5240
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1991.5240
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