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Univariate Unobserved-Component Model with Non-Random Walk Permanent Component

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  • Xu, Zhiwei

Abstract

In this note, we revisit the univariate unobserved-component (UC) model of US GDP by relaxing the traditional random-walk assumption of the permanent component. Since our general UC model is unidentified, we investigate the upper bound of the contribution of the transitory component, and find it is dominated by the permanent component.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Zhiwei, 2008. "Univariate Unobserved-Component Model with Non-Random Walk Permanent Component," MPRA Paper 12038, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12038
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    2. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
    3. Nagakura, Daisuke, 2008. "A note on the two assumptions of standard unobserved components models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 123-125, July.
    4. Oh, Kum Hwa & Zivot, Eric & Creal, Drew, 2008. "The relationship between the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions that are popular in economics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 207-219, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unobserved-Component Model; Random Walk Assumption; Permanent and Transitory Shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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