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Forecastable default risk premia and innovations

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  • Patrick Traichal
  • Steve Johnson

Abstract

We examine the generating process for default risk premia in short-term and long-term debt sectors of the U.S. economy over the recent period of January 1977 through December 1996. Using weekly aggregates reported by the Federal Reserve, this research finds that all univariate series examined have unit roots which suggests a “long memory” for innovations in the series. Models presented here demonstrate an adjusted R 2 of 59 to 97 percent in sample with similar hold-out sample results. Long-term investment grade corporate bonds exhibit substantial feedback such that lagged innovations have predictive power for nearby risk classes. In the money markets, the flow of information is from less risky assets to more risky assets. Copyright Springer 1999

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Traichal & Steve Johnson, 1999. "Forecastable default risk premia and innovations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 23(3), pages 214-225, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:23:y:1999:i:3:p:214-225
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02757706
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
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    4. Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 85-107, March.
    5. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
    6. Cook, Timothy Q & Hendershott, Patric H, 1978. "The Impact of Taxes, Risk and Relative Security Supplies on Interest Rate Differentials," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1173-1186, September.
    7. Clinebell, John M. & Kahl, Douglas K. & Stevens, Jerry L., 1996. "Time series estimation of the bond default risk premium," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 475-484.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pekka Mannonen & Elias Oikarinen, 2013. "Risk premium, macroeconomic shocks, and information technology: an empirical analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 695-705, September.

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