IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/28987.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Survey of Literature

Author

Listed:
  • Siregar, Reza

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to review and examine a collection of ‘most commonly applied’ theoretical and empirical models of equilibrium exchange rate. The presentation on each model starts with an introduction of core theoretical frameworks. It will then be followed by discussions on relevant empirical steps to estimate the equilibrium rate. The rest of the paper will focus on assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the model and how each relates to the other.

Suggested Citation

  • Siregar, Reza, 2011. "The Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Survey of Literature," MPRA Paper 28987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28987
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28987/1/MPRA_paper_28987.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniela Federici & Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2002. "Endogenous Growth in an Open Economy and the Real Exchange Rate," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 499-518, December.
    2. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 2001. "Long-Horizon Exchange Rate Predictability?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 81-91, February.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
    4. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Rahmatsyah, Teuku & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran & Siregar, Reza Y., 2002. "Exchange-rate volatility, trade and "fixing for life" in Thailand," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 445-470, December.
    6. James R. Tybout, 2000. "Manufacturing Firms in Developing Countries: How Well Do They Do, and Why?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 11-44, March.
    7. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    8. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    9. Colin Hargreaves (ed.), 1992. "Macroeconomic Modelling Of The Long Run," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 207.
    10. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
    11. Francisco Maeso–Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2002. "Determinants of the Euro Real Effective Exchange Rate: A BEER/PEER Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 437-461, December.
    12. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 1998/067, International Monetary Fund.
    13. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Krueger, Thomas H, 1994. "The Behavior of Nontradable-Goods Prices in Europe: Evidence and Interpretation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 284-305, October.
    14. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    15. Jerome L. Stein & Giovanna Paladino, 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and Crises," CESifo Working Paper Series 205, CESifo.
    16. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    18. Stein, Jerome L. & Paladino, Giovanna, 1997. "Recent developments in international finance: A guide to research," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1685-1720, December.
    19. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Reza Siregar, 2002. "Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: Currency Board (Hong Kong) or Monitoring Band (Singapore)?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 538-556, December.
    20. Isard, Peter, 1977. "How Far Can We Push the "Law of One Price"?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 942-948, December.
    21. Ms. G. C. Lim, 2000. "Misalignment and Managed Exchange Rates: An Application to the Thai Baht," IMF Working Papers 2000/063, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Balázs Égert, 2005. "The Balassa‐Samuelson Hypothesis in Estonia: Oil Shale, Tradable Goods, Regulated Prices and Other Culprits," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 259-286, February.
    23. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
    24. Romain Duval, 2002. "What Do We Know About Long–run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates? PPPs vs Macroeconomic Approaches," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 382-403, December.
    25. Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Modelling the Long–run Real Effective Exchange Rate of the New Zealand Dollar," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 519-537, December.
    26. David O. Cushman, 2000. "The failure of the monetary exchange rate model for the Canadian-U.S. dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 591-603, August.
    27. Berben, R-P. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1998. "Does the absence of cointegration explain the typical findings in long horizon regressions?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9814, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    28. Carsten Detken & Alistair Dieppe & Jérôme Henry & Frank Smets & Carmen Marin, 2002. "Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 404-436, December.
    29. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, April.
    30. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
    31. Barrell, Ray & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1989. "Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the G7," CEPR Discussion Papers 323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "International capital mobility and crowding-out in the U.S. economy: imperfect integration of financial markets or of goods markets?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 33-74.
    33. Clark, Peter B. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004. "Filtering the BEER: A permanent and transitory decomposition," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-56.
    34. Shang-Jin Wei & David C. Parsley, 1995. "Purchasing Power Disparity During the Floating Rate Period: Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade Barriers and Other Culprits," NBER Working Papers 5032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Baillie, Richard T. & Pecchenino, Rowena A., 1991. "The search for equilibrium relationships in international finance: the case of the monetary model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 582-593, December.
    36. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
    37. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
    38. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    39. Jerome L. Stein & K. Sauernheimer, 1995. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of Germany," Working Papers 95-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    40. Glen, Jack D., 1992. "Real exchange rates in the short, medium, and long run," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 147-166, August.
    41. BRUNETTI, AYMO AART OLIVER & Kisunko,Gregory & Weder,Beatrice Silvia, 1997. "Institutional obstacles to doing business : region-by-region results from a worldwide survey of the private sector," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1759, The World Bank.
    42. Vincent Koen & Laurence Boone & Alain de Serres & Nicola Fuchs, 2001. "Tracking the Euro," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 298, OECD Publishing.
    43. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    44. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    45. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Stein, Jerome L. & Allen, Polly Reynolds, 1998. "Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293064.
    47. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
    48. Richardson, J. David, 1978. "Some empirical evidence on commodity arbitrage and the law of one price," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 341-351, May.
    49. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
    50. Reza Yamora Siregar, 1999. "Real exchange rate targeting and inflation in Indonesia: theory and empirical evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 329-336.
    51. Breuer, Janice Boucher & Lippert, Alston Flynn, 1997. "Internal Relative Price Stationarity in Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 195-203, May.
    52. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2007. "The Yen, the US dollar, and the trade weighted basket of currencies: Does the choice of anchor currencies matter in identifying incidences of speculative attacks?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 214-235, March.
    53. Husted, Steven & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "Monetary-based models of the exchange rate: a panel perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, January.
    54. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. Nakorji & E. Udeaja & F. Ismail & S. Zimboh & T. Obiezue & O. Asuzu, 2019. "Computation of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) using the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) Methodology," Economic and Financial Review, Central Bank of Nigeria, vol. 57(3), August.
    2. Christian K. Tipoy & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2017. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Misalignments: The Case of Homogenous Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 201769, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Tunaer Vural, Burçak Müge, 2019. "Determinants of Turkish real effective exchange rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 151-158.
    4. Waqar Khalid & Javed Iqbal & Nosheen Nasir & Misbah Nosheen, 2024. "Do real exchange rate misalignments have threshold effects on economic growth? Asymmetric evidence from Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1-40, December.
    5. Parantap Basu & Yoseph Getachew, 2020. "Redistributive innovation policy, inequality, and efficiency," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(3), pages 532-554, June.
    6. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Tipo de cambio real en la República Dominicana: Enfoques alternativos de equilibrio y desalineamiento [Real exchange rate in the Dominican Republic: Alternative approaches to equilibrium and misali," MPRA Paper 70943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Christian K. Tipoy & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2016. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Misalignments: The Case of Homogenous Emerging Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(4), pages 3-25, October-D.
    8. Torój, Andrzej & Bednarek, Elżbieta & Bęza-Bojanowska, Joanna & Osińska, Joanna & Waćko, Katarzyna & Witkowski, Dariusz, 2012. "EMU: the (post-)crisis perspective. Literature survey and implications for the euro-candidates," MF Working Papers 12, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 06 Mar 2012.
    9. Wright, Nicholas Anthony, 2013. "Examining measures of the equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Macroeconomic Balance and the Natural Real Exchange Rate Approaches," MPRA Paper 61170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Brankica Pažun & Zlatko Langović & Ana Langovic Milićević, 2016. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Assessment of the Serbian Dinar: The MB approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 76-87, March.
    11. Ramos-Herrera María del Carmen, 2022. "How Equilibrium Exchange Rate Misalignments Influence on Economic Growth? Evidence for European Countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 199-211, January.
    12. Juda Agung & Solikin M Juhro & Harmanta & Tarsidin, 2016. "Managing monetary and financial stability in a dynamic global environment: Bank Indonesia s policy perspectives," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 157-188, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Tipoy Christian K. & Breitenbach Marthinus C. & Zerihun Mulatu F., 2018. "Exchange rate misalignment and economic growth: evidence from nonlinear panel cointegration and granger causality tests," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 1-16, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Reza Siregar & Ramkishen Rajan, 2006. "Models of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Revisited: A Selective Review of the Literature," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2006-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    2. Rimgailaite, Ramune, 2012. "Exchange rate modelling for Lithuania and Switzerland," MPRA Paper 43451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    4. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    5. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    6. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Measuring the dollar–euro permanent equilibrium exchange rate using the unobserved components model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-35.
    7. Nelson Mark, 1998. "Fundamentals of the Real Dollar-Pound Rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers 98-14, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2014-12, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    9. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
    10. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-05, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
    12. Ekong, Christopher N. & Onye, Kenneth U., 2013. "The Failure of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for the Naira-Dollar," MPRA Paper 88238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
    14. Kul B. Luintel, 2000. "Real exchange rate behaviour: evidence from black markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 161-185.
    15. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
    18. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2004. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: a closer look at panels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 867-895, October.
    19. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    20. Nilsson, Kristian, 2002. "Do Fundamentals Explain the Behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate?," Working Papers 78, National Institute of Economic Research.
    21. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium; Exchange Rate Models; PPP; Monetary Model; BEER; DEER; FEER; PEER and NATREX;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28987. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.