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Model-based Business Cycle and Financial Cycle Decomposition for Europe and the U.S

Author

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  • Siem Jan Koopman

    (VU University Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

  • Rutger Lit

    (VU University Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

  • Andre Lucas

    (VU University Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

Abstract

We develop a multivariate unobserved components model to extract business cycle and financial cycle indicators from a panel of economic and financial time series of four large developed economies. Our model is flexible and allows for the inclusion of cycle components in different selections of economic variables with different scales and with possible phase shifts. We find clear evidence of the presence of a financial cycle with a length that is approximately twice the length of a regular business cycle. Moreover, cyclical movements in credit related variables largely depend on the financial cycle, and only marginally on the business cycle. Property prices appear to have their own idiosyncratic dynamics and do not substantially load on business or financial cycle components. Systemic surveillance policies should therefore account for the different dynamic components in typical macro financial variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Siem Jan Koopman & Rutger Lit & Andre Lucas, 2016. "Model-based Business Cycle and Financial Cycle Decomposition for Europe and the U.S," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-051/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20160051
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. R. Basselier & G. Langenus & P. Reusens, 2017. "The potential growth of the Belgian economy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 37-53, september.
    2. Škare, Marinko & Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata, 2020. "Multi-channel singular-spectrum analysis of financial cycles in ten developed economies for 1970–2018," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 567-575.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial cycle; business cycle; phase shift; multivariate state space model; Kalman filtering; panel time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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