IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2023q1a8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary Policy and Stock Market Valuation

Author

Listed:
  • Olli-Matti Laine

    (Bank of Finland, Tampere University)

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of monetary policy on the term structure of stock market risk premia. The implied stock market risk premia are obtained using analysts' dividend forecasts and dividend future prices. The effect of monetary policy on risk premia is analyzed using local projections and VAR models. According to the results, monetary policy easing raises the average risk premium. The effect is driven by a rise in long-horizon risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Olli-Matti Laine, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Stock Market Valuation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 365-416, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2023:q:1:a:8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb23q1a8.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb23q1a8.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Paulo Maio, 2014. "Another Look at the Stock Return Response to Monetary Policy Actions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 321-371.
    3. Jules van Binsbergen & Michael Brandt & Ralph Koijen, 2012. "On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1596-1618, June.
    4. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    6. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Ralph S J Koijen & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 574-597.
    7. James Claus & Jacob Thomas, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    8. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
    9. Berg, Tobias, 2010. "The term structure of risk premia: new evidence from the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1165, European Central Bank.
    10. William R. Gebhardt & Charles M. C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2001. "Toward an Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 135-176, June.
    11. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    12. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo, 2020. "A hitchhiker guide to empirical macro models," CEPR Discussion Papers 15446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Jordi Gal?, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 721-752, March.
    14. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    15. Kortela, Tomi, 2016. "A shadow rate model with time-varying lower bound of interest rates," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2016, Bank of Finland.
    16. Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 714-746.
    17. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    18. Ralph S. J. Koijen & François Koulischer & Benoît Nguyen & Motohiro Yogo, 2017. "Euro-Area Quantitative Easing and Portfolio Rebalancing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 621-627, May.
    19. Michael A.S. Joyce & Zhuoshi Liu & Ian Tonks, 2017. "Institutional Investors and the QE Portfolio Balance Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1225-1246, September.
    20. Schotman, Peter C. & Schweitzer, Mark, 2000. "Horizon sensitivity of the inflation hedge of stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 301-315, November.
    21. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2015. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 233-257, January.
    22. Gust, Christopher & López-Salido, David, 2014. "Monetary policy and the cyclicality of risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 59-75.
    23. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    24. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    25. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
    26. Kewei Hou & Haitao Mo & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2021. "An Augmented q-Factor Model with Expected Growth [Abnormal returns to a fundamental analysis strategy]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 1-41.
    27. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hermans, Lieven & Kostka, Thomas & Vassallo, Danilo, 2023. "Asset allocation and risk taking under different interest rate regimes," Working Paper Series 2803, European Central Bank.
    2. Laine, Olli-Matti, 2022. "The term structure of equity premia and the macroeconomy: some results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Laine, Olli-Matti & Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2023. "Assessing targeted longer-term refinancing operations: Identification through search intensity," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2023, Bank of Finland.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laine, Olli-Matti, 2020. "Monetary policy and stock market valuation," Research Discussion Papers 16/2020, Bank of Finland.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Laine, Olli-Matti, 2022. "Evidence about the transmission of monetary policy," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number e53, March.
    4. Cenedese, Gino & Elard, Ilaf, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Hudepohl, Tom & van Lamoen, Ryan & de Vette, Nander, 2021. "Quantitative easing and exuberance in stock markets: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    7. Beckers, Benjamin & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Asset Mispricing," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145684, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    9. Ricardo De La O & Sean Myers, 2021. "Subjective Cash Flow and Discount Rate Expectations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1339-1387, June.
    10. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2023. "Sentiment Regimes and Reaction of Stock Markets to Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 365-381, July.
    11. Kroencke, Tim A. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2021. "The FOMC Risk Shift," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 21-39.
    12. Caraiani, Petre & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Nielsen, Joshua, 2023. "Monetary policy and bubbles in G7 economies using a panel VAR approach: Implications for sustainable development," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 133-155.
    13. Carrillo-Maldonado, Paul & Díaz-Cassou, Javier, 2023. "An anatomy of external shocks in the Andean region," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    14. Guofu Zhou, 2018. "Measuring Investor Sentiment," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 239-259, November.
    15. Uwe Vollmer, 2022. "Monetary policy or macroprudential policies: What can tame the cycles?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1510-1538, December.
    16. Filardo, Andrew & Hubert, Paul & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2022. "Monetary policy reaction function and the financial cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    17. Lyle, Matthew R. & Wang, Charles C.Y., 2015. "The cross section of expected holding period returns and their dynamics: A present value approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 505-525.
    18. Jeffrey L. Callen & Matthew R. Lyle, 2020. "The term structure of implied costs of equity capital," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 342-404, March.
    19. Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Time-varying impact of monetary policy shocks on US stock returns: The role of investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    20. Benjamin Beckers & Kerstin Bernoth, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Mispricing in Stock Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1605, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Myrna Hennequin & Cars Hommes, 2024. "Managing Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets with Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(2-3), pages 429-454, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2023:q:1:a:8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank for International Settlements (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijcb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.