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Do currency futures prices follow random walks?

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  • Pan, Ming-Shiun
  • Chan, Kam C.
  • C.W. Fok, Robert

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  • Pan, Ming-Shiun & Chan, Kam C. & C.W. Fok, Robert, 1997. "Do currency futures prices follow random walks?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:4:y:1997:i:1:p:1-15
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    1. Myung Jig Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1991. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 515-528.
    2. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    3. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1987. "Foreign currency futures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 1-24, February.
    4. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    5. Leuthold, Raymond M, 1972. "Random Walk and Price Trends: The Live Cattle Futures Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 879-889, September.
    6. Barnhart, Scott W. & Szakmary, Andrew C., 1991. "Testing the Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis: Evidence on Unit Roots, Co-Integration, and Stochastic Coefficients," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 245-267, June.
    7. Hall, Joyce A. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Irwin, Scott H., 1989. "The Distribution of Futures Prices: A Test of the Stable Paretian and Mixture of Normals Hypotheses," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 105-116, March.
    8. Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Temporary Components of Stock Prices: A Skeptic's View," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 199-207, April.
    9. Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1989. "The size and power of the variance ratio test in finite samples : A Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 203-238, February.
    10. Doukas, John & Rahman, Abdul, 1987. "Unit Roots Tests: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Futures Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 101-108, March.
    11. McCurdy, Thomas H. & Morgan, Ieuan G., 1987. "Tests of the martingale hypothesis for foreign currency futures with time-varying volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 131-148.
    12. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    13. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    14. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    15. Cornell, Bradford & Reinganum, Marc R, 1981. "Forward and Futures Prices: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1035-1045, December.
    16. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    17. Cavanaugh, Kenneth L., 1987. "Price dynamics in foreign currency futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 295-314, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Lima & Benjamin Tabak, 2009. "Tests of Random Walk: A Comparison of Bootstrap Approaches," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 365-382, November.
    2. Eduardo José Araújo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2008. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Relationship between the Random Walk Hypothesis and Official Interventions," Working Papers Series 173, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. David Zhao & Alessandro Rinaldo & Christopher Brookins, 2019. "Cryptocurrency Price Prediction and Trading Strategies Using Support Vector Machines," Papers 1911.11819, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    4. Wang, Tao & Yang, Jian, 2010. "Nonlinearity and intraday efficiency tests on energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 496-503, March.
    5. Jae H. Kim, 2004. "Testing for the martingale hypothesis in Asian stock prices: evidence from a new joint variance ratio test," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 98, Econometric Society.
    6. Shyh-wei Chen, 2009. "Random walks in asian foreign exchange markets:evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1296-1307.
    7. Hamill, Philip A. & Opong, Kwaku K. & McGregor, Pat, 2002. "Equity option listing in the UK: a comparison of market-based research methodologies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 91-108, January.
    8. Lima, Eduardo Jose Araújo & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2007. "Testing for inefficiency in emerging markets exchange rates," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 617-622.
    9. Juan Reboredo & José Matías & Raquel Garcia-Rubio, 2012. "Nonlinearity in Forecasting of High-Frequency Stock Returns," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(3), pages 245-264, October.
    10. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Revisiting the weak-form efficiency of the EUR/CHF exchange rate market: Evidence from episodes of different Swiss franc regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 734-746.
    11. Lee, Chun I. & Pan, Ming-Shiun & Liu, Y. Angela, 2001. "On market efficiency of Asian foreign exchange rates: evidence from a joint variance ratio test and technical trading rules," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-214, June.

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