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Time-varying estimates of the natural rate of unemployment: a revisitation of Okun's law

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  • Grant, Alan P.

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  • Grant, Alan P., 2002. "Time-varying estimates of the natural rate of unemployment: a revisitation of Okun's law," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 95-113.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:42:y:2002:i:1:p:95-113
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    3. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    4. Salop, Steven C, 1979. "A Model of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 117-125, March.
    5. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    6. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
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    8. Phelps, Edmund S & Zoega, Gylfi, 1997. "The Rise and Downward Trend of the Natural Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 283-289, May.
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    12. James Tobin & Sergio Parrinello & Paolo Sylos Labini, 1999. "Supply Constraints on Employment and Output: NAIRU Versus Natural Rate," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Giancarlo Gandolfo & Ferruccio Marzano (ed.), Economic Theory and Social Justice, chapter 1, pages 35-62, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    14. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    15. Adrian W. Throop, 1988. "An evaluation of alternative measures of expected inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 27-43.
    16. Chu, Chia-Shang James & White, Halbert, 1992. "A Direct Test for Changing Trend," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 289-299, July.
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    19. Calvo, Guillermo, 1979. "Quasi-Walrasian Theories of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 102-107, May.
    20. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    21. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Detrending and turning points," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 614-623, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aysun, Uluc & Bouvet, Florence & Hofler, Richard, 2014. "An alternative measure of structural unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 592-603.
    2. Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Time-varying model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 974-992.
    3. Ángel L. Martín‐Román & Jaime Cuéllar‐Martín & Alfonso Moral, 2023. "Natural and cyclical unemployment: A stochastic frontier decomposition and economic policy implications," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 5-39, January.
    4. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Wakita, Shigeru, 2004. "Do Structural Breaks exist in Okun’s Law? Evidence from the Lost Decade in Japan," MPRA Paper 87392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Cuéllar Martín, Jaime & Martín-Román, Ángel L. & Moral, Alfonso, 2017. "A composed error model decomposition and spatial analysis of local unemployment," MPRA Paper 79783, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Victor Claar, 2006. "Is the NAIRU more useful in forecasting inflation than the natural rate of unemployment?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(18), pages 2179-2189.
    7. Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 73-103.
    8. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E.A., 2007. "Natural rate doubts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 797-825, March.
    10. Mohamad A. Abou Hamia, 2016. "Jobless growth: empirical evidences from the Middle East and North Africa region [Wachstum ohne Beschäftigung – empirische Evidenz aus Nahost und Nordafrika]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 49(3), pages 239-251, November.
    11. James Morley & Tara M. Sinclair, 2005. "Testing for Stationarity and Cointegration in an Unobserved Components Framework," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 451, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Abou Hamia, Mohamad A., 2024. "Why developing countries need a new central bank paradigm: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa region," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(4).

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