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Greg Duffee

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Working papers

  1. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Forecasting interest rates," Economics Working Paper Archive 599, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Wright, Jonathan H., 2019. "Some observations on forecasting and policy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1186-1192.
    2. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," IZA Discussion Papers 6720, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Richard K. Crump & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2022. "On the Factor Structure of Bond Returns," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(1), pages 295-314, January.
    4. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2019. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model," Working Papers 2019-32, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Pincheira, Pablo M. & West, Kenneth D., 2016. "A comparison of some out-of-sample tests of predictability in iterated multi-step-ahead forecasts," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 304-319.
    6. Minchul Shin & Molin Zhong, 2015. "Does Realized Volatility Help Bond Yield Density Prediction?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-115, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Timmermann, Allan & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Gargano, Antonio, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 10104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    9. Rasmus Fatum & Naoko Hara & Yohei Yamamoto, 2019. "Negative Interest Rate Policy and the Influence of Macroeconomic News on Yields," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    10. Horváth, Lajos & Liu, Zhenya & Rice, Gregory & Wang, Shixuan, 2020. "A functional time series analysis of forward curves derived from commodity futures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 646-665.
    11. Chernov, Mikhail & Creal, Drew & Hördahl, Peter, 2023. "Sovereign credit and exchange rate risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific local currency bonds," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    12. Peter Feldhütter & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen & Philipp Illeditsch, 2018. "Risk Premia and Volatilities in a Nonlinear Term Structure Model [Quadratic term structure models: theory and evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 337-380.
    13. Samuel G Hanson & David O Lucca & Jonathan H Wright, 2021. "Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1719-1781.
    14. Stolyarov, Dmitriy & Tesar, Linda L., 2021. "Interest rate trends in a global context," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    15. Yin, Ximing & Yang, Ge, 2024. "Instantaneous volatility of the yield curve, variance risk premium and bond return predictability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    17. Zhang, Yugui & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2021. "Global bond risk premia under falling stars," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    18. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2020. "Machine Learning Treasury Yields," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1-65.
    19. Peter Feldhütter, 2016. "Can Affine Models Match the Moments in Bond Yields?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-56, June.
    20. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2020. "Machine Learning Treasury Yields," Papers 2003.05095, arXiv.org.
    21. Giuseppe Arbia & Michele Di Marcantonio, 2015. "Forecasting Interest Rates Using Geostatistical Techniques," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, November.
    22. Bretscher, Lorenzo & Hsu, Alex & Tamoni, Andrea, 2020. "Fiscal policy driven bond risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 53-73.
    23. Davis, Josh & Fuenzalida, Cristian & Huetsch, Leon & Mills, Benjamin & Taylor, Alan M., 2024. "Global natural rates in the long run: Postwar macro trends and the market-implied r∗ in 10 advanced economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    24. Huang, Dashan & Jiang, Fuwei & Li, Kunpeng & Tong, Guoshi & Zhou, Guofu, 2023. "Are bond returns predictable with real-time macro data?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    25. Realdon, Marco, 2024. "The efficiency of the Estr overnight index swap market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

  2. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Bond pricing and the macroeconomy," Economics Working Paper Archive 598, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Kees E. Bouwman & Elvira Sojli & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Aggregate Stock Market Illiquidity and Bond Risk Premia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-140/IV/DSF46, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models with Spanned or Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 20115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2015. "Can behavioral biases explain the rejections of the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 179-193.
    5. Nitschka, Thomas & Satkurunathan, Shajivan, 2021. "Habits die hard: implications for bond and stock markets internationally," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242358, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Halberstadt, Arne, 2021. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," Discussion Papers 27/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Valentin Haddad & Serhiy Kozak & Shrihari Santosh, 2017. "Predicting Relative Returns," NBER Working Papers 23886, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Disaster Risk and its Implications for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 20926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. J. David Lopez-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande & Pierlauro Lopez, 2015. "Macro-Finance Separation by Force of Habit," 2015 Meeting Papers 980, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Forecasting interest rates," Economics Working Paper Archive 599, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    11. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2021. "Modeling persistent interest rates with double-autoregressive processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    14. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Switching Nelson-Siegel Models," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19106, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    15. Indrajit Mitra & Yu Xu, 2020. "Limited Household Risk Sharing: General Equilibrium Implications for the Term Structure of Interest Rates," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    16. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    17. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Koijen, Ralph S.J., 2017. "The term structure of returns: Facts and theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-21.
    18. Halberstadt, Arne, 2023. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 25-39.
    19. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2017. "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Lioui, Abraham & Tarelli, Andrea, 2019. "Macroeconomic environment, money demand and portfolio choice," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 357-374.
    21. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2018. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Working Paper Series 355, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    22. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Rudi Steinbach, 2020. "Forecasting output growth using a DSGE-based decomposition of the South African yield curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 351-378, January.
    23. Nimark, Kristoffer P & Barillas, Francisco, 2015. "Speculation and the Bond Market: An Empirical No-arbitrage Framework," CEPR Discussion Papers 10892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Andrea Buraschi & Paul Whelan, 2022. "Speculation, Sentiment, and Interest Rates," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2308-2329, March.
    25. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Rahman, Shahidur, 2015. "A regime-switching Nelson–Siegel term structure model of the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-17.
    26. Pierlauro Lopez & J. David López-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "Nominal Rigidities and the Term Structures of Equity and Bond Returns," Working Papers 23-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    27. Ikeda, Ryoichi & Igarashi, Yoske, 2024. "How far can the long-run risk model with durable goods explain the variation of the yield curve?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 444-459.
    28. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro & Jean-Paul Renne & Guillaume Roussellet, 2017. "Staying at zero with affine processes : an application to term structure modelling," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 52, november.
    29. Gregory R. Duffee, 2023. "Macroeconomic News in Asset Pricing and Reality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1499-1543, June.
    30. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.

  3. Greg Duffee, 2011. "Forecasting with the term structure: The role of no-arbitrage restrictions," Economics Working Paper Archive 576, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Bond portfolio optimization using dynamic factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-158.
    2. Michael D. Bauer & Christopher J. Neely, 2012. "International channels of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2012-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Alberto Caruso & Laura Coroneo, 2023. "Does Real‐Time Macroeconomic Information Help to Predict Interest Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2027-2059, December.
    4. Wellmann, Dennis & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Factors of the term structure of sovereign yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 56-75.
    5. Mirko Abbritti & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2016. "Term Structure Persistence," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 331-352.
    6. Daniela Kubudi & José Valentim Vicente, 2016. "A Joint Model of Nominal and Real Yield Curves," Working Papers Series 452, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Presidential Address: How Much “Rationality” Is There in Bond‐Market Risk Premiums?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1611-1654, August.
    8. Minchul Shin & Molin Zhong, 2015. "Does Realized Volatility Help Bond Yield Density Prediction?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-115, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Christensen, Bent Jesper & van der Wel, Michel, 2019. "An asset pricing approach to testing general term structure models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 165-191.
    10. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 63844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Marco Giacoletti & Kristoffer T. Laursen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Learning From Disagreement in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 395-441, February.
    12. Christoph Berninger & Almond Stöcker & David Rügamer, 2022. "A Bayesian time‐varying autoregressive model for improved short‐term and long‐term prediction," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 181-200, January.
    13. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Fabricio Tourrucôo & João F. Caldeira & Guilherme V. Moura & André A. P. Santos, 2016. "Forecasting The Yield Curve With The Arbitrage-Free Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model: Brazilian Evidence," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 028, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    15. Cao, Shuo & Crump, Richard K. & ,, 2020. "Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 15122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Joslin, Scott & Le, Anh & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2013. "Why Gaussian macro-finance term structure models are (nearly) unconstrained factor-VARs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 604-622.
    17. Márcio Poletti Laurini & Armênio Westin Neto, 2014. "Arbitrage in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: a Bayesian Approach," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 6(2), pages 77-99, September.
    18. Feiyan Zhang & Dewen Chen, 2019. "The short-term spillover effects of the Fed on Chinese financial market The overshooting model or the portfolio balance theory," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(5), pages 1-5.
    19. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson–Siegel model under stochastic volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 205-223.
    20. Peter Feldhütter & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen & Philipp Illeditsch, 2018. "Risk Premia and Volatilities in a Nonlinear Term Structure Model [Quadratic term structure models: theory and evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 337-380.
    21. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Forecasting interest rates," Economics Working Paper Archive 599, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    22. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models," Working Paper Series 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    23. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 3-46, February.
    24. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
    25. Koopman, Siem Jan & van der Wel, Michel, 2013. "Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using a macroeconomic smooth dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 676-694.
    26. Fausto Vieira & Fernando Chague, Marcelo Fernandes, 2016. "A dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with forward-looking indicators for the yield curve in the US," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2016_31, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    27. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Testable implications of affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 231-242.
    28. Goliński, Adam & Spencer, Peter, 2017. "The advantages of using excess returns to model the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 163-181.
    29. Scott Joslin & Anh Le, 2021. "Interest Rate Volatility and No-Arbitrage Affine Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7391-7416, December.
    30. Chen, Ying & Niu, Linlin, 2014. "Adaptive dynamic Nelson–Siegel term structure model with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 98-115.
    31. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    32. Håvard Hungnes, 2016. "Fractionality and co-fractionality between Government Bond yields," Discussion Papers 838, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    33. Carlos Castro-Iragorri & Juan Felipe Peña & Cristhian Rodríguez, 2021. "A Segmented and Observable Yield Curve for Colombia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(2), pages 179-200.
    34. Januj Juneja, 2018. "Empirical performance of Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models in the presence of autocorrelation misspecification bias," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 695-715, April.
    35. Jiazi Chen & Zhiwu Hong & Linlin Niu, 2022. "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints: The Role of the Demographic Age Structure," Working Papers 2022-06-25, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    36. Eran Raviv, 2013. "Prediction Bias Correction for Dynamic Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-041/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    37. Haitham A. Al-Zoubi, 2024. "An affine model for short rates when monetary policy is path dependent," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 151-201, July.
    38. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
    39. Juneja, Januj, 2017. "How Germany benefits the most from its Eurozone membership," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1074-1088.
    40. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
    41. Constantino Hevia & Martin Sola, 2018. "Bond Risk Premia and Restrictions on Risk Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-22, October.
    42. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2012. "Identification and estimation of Gaussian affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 315-331.
    43. Raviv, Eran, 2015. "Prediction bias correction for dynamic term structure models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 112-115.
    44. Greg Duffee, 2011. "Information in (and not in) the term structure," Economics Working Paper Archive 577, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    45. Richard K. Crump & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2019. "Deconstructing the yield curve," Staff Reports 884, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    46. Al-Zoubi, Haitham A., 2019. "Bond and option prices with permanent shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 272-290.
    47. Konstantinos Bisiotis & Stelios Psarakis & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2022. "Affine Term Structure Models: Applications in Portfolio Optimization and Change Point Detection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-33, November.
    48. Engle, Robert & Roussellet, Guillaume & Siriwardane, Emil, 2017. "Scenario generation for long run interest rate risk assessment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 333-347.
    49. Gaus, Eric & Sinha, Arunima, 2018. "What does the yield curve imply about investor expectations?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 248-265.
    50. Juneja, Januj, 2014. "Term structure estimation in the presence of autocorrelation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 119-129.
    51. Wali ULLAH & Khadija Malik BARI, 2018. "The Term Structure of Government Bond Yields in an Emerging Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-28, September.
    52. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.
    53. Fernandes, Marcelo & Vieira, Fausto, 2019. "A dynamic Nelson–Siegel model with forward-looking macroeconomic factors for the yield curve in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.

  4. Greg Duffee, 2011. "Information in (and not in) the term structure," Economics Working Paper Archive 577, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    2. Chernov, Mikhail & Bauer, Michael, 2021. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," CEPR Discussion Papers 16274, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
    4. Pegoraro, F. & Siegel, A. F. & Tiozzo Pezzoli, L., 2014. "Specification Analysis of International Treasury Yield Curve Factors," Working papers 490, Banque de France.
    5. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2024. "What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt‐to‐Output Ratio? The Dogs that Did not Bark," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2603-2665, August.
    6. Berndt, Antje & Yeltekin, Şevin, 2015. "Monetary policy, bond returns and debt dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 119-136.
    7. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo, 2012. "An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2012001, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    8. Giacomini, Raffaella & Ragusa, Giuseppe & Altavilla, Carlo, 2013. "Anchoring the Yield Curve Using Survey Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 9738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Kees E. Bouwman & Elvira Sojli & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Aggregate Stock Market Illiquidity and Bond Risk Premia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-140/IV/DSF46, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Richard K. Crump & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2022. "On the Factor Structure of Bond Returns," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(1), pages 295-314, January.
    11. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models with Spanned or Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 20115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench, 2008. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Staff Reports 340, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Hao Zhou, 2019. "Short-Run Bond Risk Premia," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-34, September.
    14. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2019. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model," Working Papers 2019-32, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Yun, Jaeho, 2019. "Bond risk premia in a small open economy with volatile capital flows: The case of Korea," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 223-243.
    16. Mirko Abbritti & Salvatore Dell’Erba & Antonio Moreno & Sergio Sola, 2018. "Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 301-340, March.
    17. Anna Cieslak & Pavol Povala, 2016. "Information in the Term Structure of Yield Curve Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1393-1436, June.
    18. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2016. "The economic value of predicting bond risk premia," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 247-267.
    19. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
    20. Timmermann, Allan & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Gargano, Antonio, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 10104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    22. Christensen, Bent Jesper & van der Wel, Michel, 2019. "An asset pricing approach to testing general term structure models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 165-191.
    23. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 63844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Casper de Vries & Xuedong Wang, 2015. "Inflation, Endogenous Market Segmentation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-066/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    25. Stefano Giglio & Ian Dew-Becker & David Berger, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 403, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    26. Tack Yun & Eunmi Ko & Jinsook Kim, 2013. "The Role of Bounded Rationality in Macro-Finance Affine Term-Structure Models," 2013 Meeting Papers 527, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    27. Eric T. Swanson, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 23311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    29. Januj Amar Juneja, 2021. "How do invariant transformations affect the calibration and optimization of the Kalman filtering algorithm used in the estimation of continuous-time affine term structure models?," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 73-97, January.
    30. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
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    90. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2015. "Financial conditions, macroeconomic factors and disaggregated bond excess returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 80-94.
    91. Carlos Alberto Cuadros Lara, 2015. "Descomposicion de la estructura a terminos de la tasa de interes de los bonos soberanos de Estados Unidos y Colombia," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 18(2), pages 309-342, December.
    92. Connolly, Robert & Dubofsky, David & Stivers, Chris, 2018. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the distant forward-rate slope," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 140-161.
    93. Caio Almeida & Kym Ardison & Daniela Kubudi & Axel Simonsen & José Vicente, 2018. "Forecasting Bond Yields with Segmented Term Structure Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 1-33.
    94. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2014. "Bond Risk Premia and Gaussian Term Structure Models," Staff Working Papers 14-13, Bank of Canada.
    95. Li, Haitao & Ye, Xiaoxia & Yu, Fan, 2020. "Unifying Gaussian dynamic term structure models from a Heath–Jarrow–Morton perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 1153-1167.
    96. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong & Xiye Yang, 2020. "Predicting interest rates using shrinkage methods, real‐time diffusion indexes, and model combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 587-613, August.
    97. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2014. "Financial conditions, macroeconomic factors and (un)expected bond excess returns," Discussion Papers 35/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    98. Yun, Jaeho, 2023. "International linkages of term structures: US and Korea Treasury bond yields," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    99. Adam Golinski & Peter Spencer, 2019. "Estimating the term structure with linear regressions: Getting to the roots of the problem," Discussion Papers 19/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
    100. Nyholm, Ken, 2015. "A rotated Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with macro-financial applications," Working Paper Series 1851, European Central Bank.
    101. Juneja, Januj, 2017. "Invariance, observational equivalence, and identification: Some implications for the empirical performance of affine term structure models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 292-305.
    102. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Zhaogang Song & Hao Zhou, 2015. "Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-run and Long-run Risks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-95, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    103. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
    104. Dmitriy Stolyarov & Linda L. Tesar, 2019. "Interest Rate Trends in a Global Context," Working Papers wp402, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    105. Laborda, Ricardo & Olmo, Jose, 2014. "Investor sentiment and bond risk premia," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 206-233.
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    109. Hanson, Samuel G., 2014. "Mortgage convexity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 270-299.
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    111. Almeida, Caio & Ardison, Kym & Kubudi, Daniela, 2014. "Approximating Risk Premium on a Parametric Arbitrage-free Term Structure Model," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 34(2), November.
    112. Andrea Berardi & Michael Markovich & Alberto Plazzi & Andrea Tamoni, 2019. "Mind the (Convergence) Gap: Bond Predictability Strikes Back!," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-52, Swiss Finance Institute.
    113. Davis, Josh & Fuenzalida, Cristian & Huetsch, Leon & Mills, Benjamin & Taylor, Alan M., 2024. "Global natural rates in the long run: Postwar macro trends and the market-implied r∗ in 10 advanced economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    114. Realdon, Marco, 2016. "Tests of non linear Gaussian term structure models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 128-147.
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    116. Lin-Yee Hin & Nikolai Dokuchaev, 2016. "Short Rate Forecasting Based On The Inference From The Cir Model For Multiple Yield Curve Dynamics," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-33, March.
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    129. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela, 2019. "Forecasting and trading monetary policy effects on the riskless yield curve with regime switching Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
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    131. Xinglin Yang, 2023. "Unspanned macro risks in VIX futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(9), pages 1305-1328, September.
    132. Jing-Zhi Huang & Zhan Shi, 2023. "Machine-Learning-Based Return Predictors and the Spanning Controversy in Macro-Finance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1780-1804, March.
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  5. Greg Duffee, 2010. "Sharpe ratios in term structure models," Economics Working Paper Archive 575, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench, 2008. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Staff Reports 340, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2016. "The economic value of predicting bond risk premia," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 247-267.
    3. Andrea Frazzini & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2012. "Betting Against Beta," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 12-17, Swiss Finance Institute.
    4. Timmermann, Allan & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Gargano, Antonio, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 10104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Halberstadt, Arne, 2021. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," Discussion Papers 27/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Greg Duffee, 2011. "Forecasting with the term structure: The role of no-arbitrage restrictions," Economics Working Paper Archive 576, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    7. Joslin, Scott & Le, Anh & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2013. "Why Gaussian macro-finance term structure models are (nearly) unconstrained factor-VARs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 604-622.
    8. Chiarella, Carl & Hsiao, Chih-Ying & Tô, Thuy-Duong, 2016. "Stochastic correlation and risk premia in term structure models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 59-78.
    9. Chernov, Mikhail & Creal, Drew & Hördahl, Peter, 2023. "Sovereign credit and exchange rate risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific local currency bonds," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    10. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    11. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Forecasting interest rates," Economics Working Paper Archive 599, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    12. Fan, Longzhen & Tian, Shu & Zhang, Chu, 2012. "Why are excess returns on China’s Treasury bonds so predictable? The role of the monetary system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 239-248.
    13. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    14. Li, Junye & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2024. "Risks and risk premia in the US Treasury market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. Goliński, Adam & Spencer, Peter, 2017. "The advantages of using excess returns to model the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 163-181.
    16. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley Zin, 2011. "Sources of Entropy in Representative Agent Models," Working Papers 11-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    17. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Anh Le & Christian Lundblad, 2022. "Tractable Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8411-8429, November.
    18. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    19. Mirkov, Nikola, 2012. "International Financial Transmission of the US Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers on Finance 1201, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    20. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Koijen, Ralph S.J., 2017. "The term structure of returns: Facts and theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-21.
    21. Halberstadt, Arne, 2023. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 25-39.
    22. Peter Feldhütter, 2016. "Can Affine Models Match the Moments in Bond Yields?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-56, June.
    23. Chan R. Mang, 2014. "Uncertain Risk and Return in Bond Markets, I," 2014 Papers pma1706, Job Market Papers.
    24. Gideon Magnus, 2016. "A plausible model of yield curve dynamics," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(2), pages 205-228, May.
    25. Greg Duffee, 2011. "Information in (and not in) the term structure," Economics Working Paper Archive 577, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    26. J. Benson Durham, 2015. "Betting against beta (and gamma) using government bonds," Staff Reports 708, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    27. P. Lopez, 2014. "The Term Structure of the Welfare Cost of Uncertainty," Working papers 521, Banque de France.
    28. Alain MONFORT & Jean-Paul RENNE & Guillaume ROUSSELLET, 2020. "Affine Modeling of Credit Risk, Pricing of Credit Events and Contagion," Working Papers 2020-01, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    29. Kim, Don H. & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2012. "Term structure models and the zero bound: An empirical investigation of Japanese yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 32-49.
    30. Cejnek, Georg & Randl, Otto, 2016. "Risk and return of short-duration equity investments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 181-198.
    31. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Bond pricing and the macroeconomy," Economics Working Paper Archive 598, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    32. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2013. "International Bond Risk Premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 17-32.
    33. Berardi, Andrea, 2023. "Term premia and short rate expectations in the euro area," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    34. Jing-Zhi Huang & Zhan Shi, 2023. "Machine-Learning-Based Return Predictors and the Spanning Controversy in Macro-Finance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1780-1804, March.

  6. Greg Duffee, 2005. "Term structure estimation without using latent factors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 103, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ege, Yazgan & Huseyin, Kaya, 2010. "Has inflation targeting increased predictive power of term structure about future inflation: evidence from an emerging market ?," MPRA Paper 24810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2008. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel Model?," Working Paper Series 874, European Central Bank.
    3. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2010. "No-arbitrage macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 166-182, November.
    4. Argyropoulos Efthymios & Tzavalis Elias, 2015. "Term spread regressions of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure allowing for risk premium effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 49-70, February.
    5. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
    6. Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Le, Anh & Lundblad, Christian, 2015. "Why do term structures in different currencies co-move?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 58-83.
    7. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2005. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 05-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    8. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2009. "The Term Structures of Equity and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 14698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Andrew Ang & Jean Boivin & Sen Dong & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2009. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 15270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Staff Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada.
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    16. Kim, Hwagyun & Park, Hail, 2013. "Term structure dynamics with macro-factors using high frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 78-93.
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    19. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2015. "Real term structure forecasts of consumption growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-222.
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    21. Jiang, George & Yan, Shu, 2009. "Linear-quadratic term structure models - Toward the understanding of jumps in interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 473-485, March.
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  7. Gregory R. Duffee, 2001. "Asymmetric cross-sectional dispersion in stock returns: evidence and implications," Working Paper Series 2000-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Chun-Da & Demirer, Riza & Jategaonkar, Shrikant P., 2015. "Risk and return in the Chinese stock market: Does equity return dispersion proxy risk?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 23-37.
    2. Das, Sonali & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Mangisa, Siphumlile, 2019. "The effect of global crises on stock market correlations: Evidence from scalar regressions via functional data analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 132-147.
    3. Ren, Boru & Lucey, Brian, 2023. "Herding in the Chinese renewable energy market: Evidence from a bootstrapping time-varying coefficient autoregressive model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Ceylan, Ozcan, 2010. "Limited Information-Processing Capacity and Asymmetric Stock Correlations," MPRA Paper 61587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Demirer, Rıza & Jategaonkar, Shrikant P., 2013. "The conditional relation between dispersion and return," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 125-134.
    6. Susan Sunila Sharma & Paresh Narayan & Kannan Thuraisamy, 2015. "Time-Varying Herding Behavior, Global Financial Crisis, and the Chinese Stock Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(02), pages 1-31.
    7. Economou, Fotini & Katsikas, Epameinondas & Vickers, Gregory, 2016. "Testing for herding in the Athens Stock Exchange during the crisis period," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 334-341.
    8. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Zhihui Lv & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Equity Return Dispersion and Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Multivariate Linear and Nonlinear Causality Tests," Working Papers 201846, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Thomas Chiang & Lin Tan & Jiandong Li & Edward Nelling, 2013. "Dynamic Herding Behavior in Pacific-Basin Markets: Evidence and Implications," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 17(3-4), pages 165-200, September.
    10. Fei, Tianlun & Liu, Xiaoquan & Wen, Conghua, 2019. "Cross-sectional return dispersion and volatility prediction," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

  8. Gregory R. Duffee, 2000. "Term premia and interest rate forecasts in affine models," Working Paper Series 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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    1. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin & Kenc, Turalay & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2004. "On Model Selection and Markov Switching: A Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    4. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    5. Allan Jonathan da Silva & Jack Baczynski & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2020. "Efficient Solutions for Pricing and Hedging Interest Rate Asian Options," Working Papers Series 513, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Andrés Mirantes & Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2015. "Commodity derivative valuation under a factor model with time-varying market prices of risk," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 75-93, April.
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    43. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2008. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel Model?," Working Paper Series 874, European Central Bank.
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    83. Antonio Nicolo' & Loriana Pelizzon, 2005. "Credit Derivatives: Capital Requirements and Strategic Contracting," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0006, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    84. Matt Darst & Ehraz Refayet, 2019. "Mixed Signals: Investment Distortions with Adverse Selection," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    85. Liu, Luke, 2011. "Securitization and moral hazard: Does security price matter?," MPRA Paper 35004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    86. Dawood Ashraf & Yener Altunbas & John Goddard, 2007. "Who Transfers Credit Risk? Determinants of the Use of Credit Derivatives by Large US Banks," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 483-500.
    87. Roshanthi Dias, 2017. "The role of managerial risk-taking in the ‘rise and fall’ of the CDS market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57, pages 117-145, April.
    88. Cerasi, Vittoria & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2014. "Rethinking the regulatory treatment of securitization," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 20-31.
    89. Allen, Franklin & Carletti, Elena, 2005. "Credit risk transfer and contagion," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/25, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    90. Marti G. Subrahmanyam & Dragon Yongjun Tang & Sarah Qian Wang, 2012. "Does the Tail Wag the Dog? The Effect of Credit Default Swaps on Credit Risk," Working Papers 292012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    91. Qi-An Chen & Fangzhou Du, 2017. "Hedging Of Credit Derivatives, Systematic Fluctuation And Banking Stability In China," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(04), pages 809-836, September.
    92. James R. Thompson, 2007. "Counterparty Risk In Insurance Contracts: Should The Insured Worry About The Insurer?," Working Paper 1136, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    93. Martin Mayer, 1999. "Risk Reduction in the New Financial Architecture: Realities, Fallacies, and Proposals," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_268, Levy Economics Institute.
    94. Hallak, Issam, 2009. "Renegotiation and the pricing structure of sovereign bank loans: Empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 89-103, January.
    95. Batchimeg Sambalaibat, 2012. "Credit Default Swaps and Sovereign Debt with Moral Hazard and Debt Renegotiation," 2012 Meeting Papers 1093, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    96. Martin Mayer, "undated". "Risk Reduction in the New Financial Architecture: Realities and Fallacies in International Financial Reform," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_56, Levy Economics Institute.
    97. Rhys M. Bidder & John Krainer & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2019. "De-leveraging or De-risking? How Banks Cope with Loss," Working Paper Series 2017-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    98. Stefan ARPING,, 2002. "Playing Hardball: Relationship Banking in the Age of Credit Derivatives," FAME Research Paper Series rp49, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    99. Deku, Solomon Y. & Kara, Alper & Zhou, Yifan, 2019. "Securitization, bank behaviour and financial stability: A systematic review of the recent empirical literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 245-254.
    100. Fecht, Falko & Wagner, Wolf, 2009. "The marketability of bank assets, managerial rents and banking stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 272-282, September.
    101. Lean Yu & Xinxie Li & Ling Tang & Zongyi Zhang & Gang Kou, 2015. "Social credit: a comprehensive literature review," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, December.

  10. Gregory R. Duffee & Stephen D. Prowse, 1996. "What's good for GM...? Using auto industry stock returns to forecast business cycles and test the Q-theory of investment," Working Papers 9610, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Ozlem Goktas & Aycan Hepsag, 2011. "Do stock returns lead real economic activity? Evidence from seasonal cointegration analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2117-2127.
    2. John V. Duca, 1997. "Has long-run profitability risen in the 1990s," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 2-14.

  11. Gregory R. Duffee, 1996. "Rethinking risk management for banks: lessons from credit derivatives," Proceedings 514, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

    Cited by:

    1. Henke, Sabine & Burghof, Hans-Peter & Rudolph, Bernd, 1998. "Credit securitization and credit derivatives: Financial instruments and the credit risk management of middle market commercial loan portfolios," CFS Working Paper Series 1998/07, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Duffee, Gregory R. & Zhou, Chunsheng, 2001. "Credit derivatives in banking: Useful tools for managing risk?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 25-54, August.

  12. Credit Derivatives: Is It Always Good to Have More Risk Management Tools? Gregory Duffee 96-42 Banks & Chungsheng Zhou, 1996. "Banks and Credit Derivatives: Is It Always Good to Have More Risk Management Tools?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-42, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.

    Cited by:

    1. Milind M. Shrikhande & Larry D. Wall, 2000. "Managing the risk of loans with basis risk: sell, hedge, or do nothing?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

  13. Gregory R. Duffee, 1994. "On measuring credit risks of derivative instruments," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Jobst, Andreas A., 2002. "The Pricing puzzle: The default term structure of collateralised loan obligations," CFS Working Paper Series 2002/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Lucas, André & Klaassen, Pieter & Spreij, Peter, 1999. "An analytic approach to credit risk of large corporate bond and loan portfolios," Serie Research Memoranda 0018, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    3. Jobst, Andreas A., 2002. "Loan securitisation: default term structure and asset pricing based on loss prioritisation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Jones, David & Mingo, John, 1999. "Credit risk modeling and internal capital allocation processes: implications for a models-based regulatory bank capital standard," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 79-108, March.
    5. Son-Nan Chen & Pao-Peng Hsu & Chang-Yi Li, 2016. "Pricing credit-risky bonds and spread options modelling credit-spread term structures with two-dimensional Markov-modulated jump-diffusion," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 573-592, April.
    6. Thomas, Lyn C. & Allen, David E. & Morkel-Kingsbury, Nigel, 2002. "A hidden Markov chain model for the term structure of bond credit risk spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 311-329.
    7. Houweling, P. & Hoek, J. & Kleibergen, F.R., 1999. "The Joint Estimation of Term Structures and Credit Spreads," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9916-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    8. Michel Aglietta, 1996. "Financial Market Failures and Systemic Risk," Working Papers 1996-01, CEPII research center.
    9. Chateau, J. -P. & Dufresne, D., 2002. "The stochastic-volatility American put option of banks' credit line commitments:: Valuation and policy implications," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 159-181.
    10. Oda, Nobuyuki & Muranaga, Jun, 1997. "A New Framework for Measuring the Credit Risk of a Portfolio: The "ExVaR" Model," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 15(2), pages 27-62, December.
    11. Chunsheng Zhou, 1997. "A jump-diffusion approach to modeling credit risk and valuing defaultable securities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Jane Mpapalika, 2020. "Alternative Financing Instruments for African Economies," 2020 Papers pmp2, Job Market Papers.
    13. Hugues Pirotte, 1999. "Implementing a Structural Valuation Model of Swap Credit-Sensitive Rates," Working Papers CEB 99-001.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Riadh Belhaj, 2006. "The Valuation of Options on Bonds with Default Risk," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 10(3-4), pages 277-306, September.
    15. Gibson, Rajna & Murawski, Carsten, 2013. "Margining in derivatives markets and the stability of the banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1119-1132.
    16. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.

  14. Gregory R. Duffee, 1994. "Idiosyncratic variation of Treasury bill yields," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
    2. Mr. Manmohan Singh, 2012. "Puts in the Shadow," IMF Working Papers 2012/229, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Dankenbring, Henning, 1998. "Volatility estimates of the short term interest rate with an application to German data," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,96, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    4. Mark A Carlson & David C Wheelock, 2016. "Near-money premiums, monetary policy, and the integration of money markets: lessons from deregulation," BIS Working Papers 581, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Manmohan Singh, 2013. "The Economics of Shadow Banking," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Matthew Lilley & Mark Manning (ed.),Liquidity and Funding Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Challe, E. & Le Grand, F. & Ragot, X., 2010. "Incomplete markets, liquidation risk, and the term structure of interest rates," Working papers 301, Banque de France.
    7. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Hao Zhou, 2019. "Short-Run Bond Risk Premia," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-34, September.
    8. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Bermudez, Ana & Hatgioannides, John, 2003. "Two-factor convertible bonds valuation using the method of characteristics/finite elements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1801-1831, August.
    9. Michael J. Fleming & Giang Nguyen & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2007. "How do treasury dealers manage their positions?," Staff Reports 299, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Bredemeier, Christian & Juessen, Falko & Schabert, Andreas, 2022. "Why are fiscal multipliers moderate even under monetary accommodation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    11. Saki Bigio & Galo Nuño & Juan Passadore, 2019. "A framework for debt-maturity management," Working Papers 1919, Banco de España.
    12. Chrétien, Stéphane, 2012. "Bounds on the autocorrelation of admissible stochastic discount factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1943-1962.
    13. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian P. Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Christophe Pérignon & Daniel R. Smith, 2007. "Yield-factor volatility models," Post-Print hal-00461067, HAL.
    15. Greg Duffee, 2011. "Forecasting with the term structure: The role of no-arbitrage restrictions," Economics Working Paper Archive 576, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    16. Robert R. Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2001. "Recovering risk aversion from options," Working Paper Series WP-01-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    18. Renò, Roberto, 2008. "Nonparametric Estimation Of The Diffusion Coefficient Of Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1174-1206, October.
    19. Gary Gorton & Ping He, 2016. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Collateralized Economy," NBER Working Papers 22599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
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    22. Fleming, Michael J, 2002. "Are Larger Treasury Issues More Liquid? Evidence from Bill Reopenings," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 707-735, August.
    23. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
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    25. Michael J. Fleming, 2001. "Financial market implications of the federal debt paydown," Staff Reports 120, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    26. Griffiths, Mark D. & Lindley, James T. & Winters, Drew B., 2010. "Market-making costs in Treasury bills: A benchmark for the cost of liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2146-2157, September.
    27. Orphanides, Athanasios & Kim, Don H., 2005. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Jordan, Bradford D. & Jorgensen, Randy D. & Kuipers, David R., 2000. "The relative pricing of U.S. Treasury STRIPS: empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 89-123, April.
    29. Roberto Reno' & Antonio Roma & Stephen Schaefer, 2004. "A Comparison of Alternative Nonparametric Estimators of the Short Rate Diffusion Coefficient," Department of Economics University of Siena 445, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    30. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff, 2018. "Floating Rate Money? The Stability Premium in Treasury Floating Rate Notes," NBER Working Papers 25216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Fan, Longzhen & Tian, Shu & Zhang, Chu, 2012. "Why are excess returns on China’s Treasury bonds so predictable? The role of the monetary system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 239-248.
    32. Song Han & Hao Zhou, 2011. "Effects of Liquidity on the Nondefault Component of Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from Intraday Transactions Data," Working Papers 022011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    33. Mahdavi, Mahnaz, 2008. "A comparison of international short-term rates under no arbitrage condition," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 303-318.
    34. Davide Dottori & Michele Manna, 2015. "Strategy and tactics in public debt management," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1005, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    35. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 2000-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    36. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas & Steffensen, Sigurd A.M., 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 841-858.
    37. Robert R. Bliss, 1997. "Movements in the term structure of interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 82(Q 4), pages 16-33.
    38. Hördahl, Peter, 2000. "Estimating the implied distribution of the future short term interest rate using the Longstaff-Schwartz model," Working Paper Series 16, European Central Bank.
    39. Robert R. Bliss & David C. Smith, 1997. "The stability of interest rate processes," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    40. Huber, Amy Wang, 2023. "Market power in wholesale funding: A structural perspective from the triparty repo market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 235-259.
    41. Aytek Malkhozov & Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Gyuri Venter, 2017. "International Illiquidity," International Finance Discussion Papers 1201, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    42. Zhiguo He & Stefan Nagel & Zhaogang Song, 2020. "Treasury Inconvenience Yields during the COVID-19 Crisis," Working Papers 2020-79, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    43. Greg Duffee, 2010. "Sharpe ratios in term structure models," Economics Working Paper Archive 575, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    44. Diana Zigraiova & Petr Jakubik, 2017. "Updating the Long Term Rate in Time: A Possible Approach," Working Papers IES 2017/03, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Mar 2017.
    45. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
    46. Tobias Adrian & Michael J. Fleming & Erik Vogt, 2017. "The Evolution of Treasury Market Liquidity: Evidence from 30 Years of Limit Order Book Data," Staff Reports 827, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    47. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff, 2024. "Treasury Richness," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2797-2844, August.
    48. Emanuel R. Leao & Sergio C. Lagoa & David McMillan, 2015. "A contribution to the study of the German treasury bills market," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1024927-102, December.
    49. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & René Garcia & Sermin Gungor, 2016. "Funding Liquidity, Market Liquidity and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-21, CIRANO.
    50. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2002. "Regime Switching in the Yield Curve," Finance Working Papers 02-13, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    51. Fleckenstein, Matthias & Longstaff, Francis A., 2020. "The US Treasury floating rate note puzzle: Is there a premium for mark-to-market stability?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 637-658.
    52. Christopher S. Jones, 2003. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in the Short-Term Interest Rate," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 793-843, July.
    53. Dell'Aquila, Rosario & Ronchetti, Elvezio & Trojani, Fabio, 2003. "Robust GMM analysis of models for the short rate process," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 373-397, May.
    54. Roberto Reno', 2004. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Diffusion Coefficient via Fourier Analysis, with Aplication to Short Rate Modeling," Department of Economics University of Siena 440, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    55. Kucuk, Ugur N., 2010. "Non-default Component of Sovereign Emerging Market Yield Spreads and its Determinants: Evidence from Credit Default Swap Market," MPRA Paper 27428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    56. Mr. Manmohan Singh, 2013. "Collateral and Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2013/186, International Monetary Fund.
    57. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2005. "Level-ARCH Short Rate Models with Regime Switching: Bivariate Modeling of US and European Short Rates," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2005-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    58. Caio Almeida & Kym Ardison & Daniela Kubudi & Axel Simonsen & José Vicente, 2018. "Forecasting Bond Yields with Segmented Term Structure Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 1-33.
    59. Bams, Dennis & Schotman, Peter C., 2003. "Direct estimation of the risk neutral factor dynamics of Gaussian term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 179-206, November.
    60. Longstaff, Francis A., 2000. "The term structure of very short-term rates: New evidence for the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 397-415, December.
    61. Livingston, Miles & Wu, Yanbin & Zhou, Lei, 2019. "The decline in idiosyncratic values of US Treasury securities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    62. Brand, Claus & Ferrante, Lorenzo & Hubert, Antoine, 2019. "From cash- to securities-driven euro area repo markets: the role of financial stress and safe asset scarcity," Working Paper Series 2232, European Central Bank.
    63. Gann, Philipp & Laut, Amelie, 2008. "Einflussfaktoren auf den Credit Spread von Unternehmensanleihen," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 4231, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    64. Choi, Hwan-sik & Jeong, Minsoo & Park, Joon Y., 2014. "An asymptotic analysis of likelihood-based diffusion model selection using high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 539-557.
    65. Diana Zigraiova & Petr Jakubik, 2017. "Updating the Ultimate Forward Rate over Time: A Possible Approach," Working Papers 2017/03, Czech National Bank.
    66. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2010. "Do Bonds Span Volatility Risk in the U.S. Treasury Market? A Specification Test for Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 603-653, April.
    67. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
    68. Díaz, Antonio & Escribano, Ana, 2017. "Liquidity measures throughout the lifetime of the U.S. Treasury bond," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 42-74.
    69. Lenel, Moritz & Piazzesi, Monika & Schneider, Martin, 2019. "The short rate disconnect in a monetary economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 59-77.
    70. Jinfan Zhang & Hongjun Yan & Dong Lou, 2011. "Anticipated and Repeated Shocks in Liquid Markets," 2011 Meeting Papers 1446, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    71. Piazzesi, Monika & Lenel, Moritz & Schneider, Martin, 2019. "The Short Rate Disconnect in a Monetary Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 13947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    72. Thomas B. King, 2003. "Discipline and liquidity in the market for federal funds," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2003-02, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    73. Marco Lippi & Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "A dynamic factor analysis of the response of U. S. interest rates to news," Working Papers 2004-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    74. Doerr, Sebastian & Eren, Egemen & Malamud, Semyon, 2024. "Money Market Funds and the Pricing of Near-Money Assets," CEPR Discussion Papers 18813, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    75. Saki Bigio & Galo Nuño & Juan Passadore, 2023. "Debt-Maturity Management with Liquidity Costs," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 119-190.
    76. Andreas Reschreiter, 2011. "Real and nominal UK interest rates, ERM membership, and inflation targeting," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 559-579, May.
    77. Philippe Mueller & Gyuri Venter & Andrea Vedolin & Aytek Malkhozov, 2014. "International Liquidity CAPM," 2014 Meeting Papers 1165, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    78. Jia, Pengfei, 2021. "Understanding a New Keynesian Model with Liquidity," MPRA Paper 108286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  15. Gregory R. Duffee, 1992. "Trading volume and return reversals," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 192, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Lillyn L. Teh & Werner F. M. de Bondt, 1997. "Herding Behavior and Stock Returns: An Exploratory Investigation," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 133(II), pages 293-324, June.
    2. Cetin Ciner, 2003. "Dynamic Linkages Between Trading Volume and Price Movements: Evidence for Small Firm Stocks," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 8(1), pages 87-102, Spring.
    3. Wang, Jiang & Grossman, Sanford & Campbell, John, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3128710, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Germán G. Creamer & Tal Ben-Zvi, 2021. "Volatility and Risk in the Energy Market: A Trade Network Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-17, September.
    5. Gagnon, Louis & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2009. "Information, Trading Volume, and International Stock Return Comovements: Evidence from Cross-Listed Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 953-986, August.
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    1. K. Ronnie Sircar & George Papanicolaou, 1998. "General Black-Scholes models accounting for increased market volatility from hedging strategies," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 45-82.
    2. Uppal, Raman & Das, Sanjiv Ranjan, 2002. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 3305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    1. Janet Napoli, 1992. "Derivative markets and competitiveness," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 16(Jul), pages 13-24.
    2. Edgar L. Feige, 2000. "Taxation for the 21st century: the automated payment transaction (APT) tax," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 474-511.

  18. Gregory R. Duffee, "undated". "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Dec 2019.

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    1. Masakazu Miura & Kenichiro Tamaki & Takayuki Shiohama, 2013. "Asymptotic Expansion for Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds with Non-Gaussian Dependent Innovations," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(4), pages 311-344, November.
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    3. Heidari, Massoud & Wu, Liuren, 2009. "A Joint Framework for Consistently Pricing Interest Rates and Interest Rate Derivatives," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 517-550, June.
    4. Xie, Yan Alice & Liu, Sheen & Wu, Chunchi & Anderson, Bing, 2009. "The effects of default and call risk on bond duration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1700-1708, September.
    5. Kwamie Dunbar, . "An Empirical Review of United States Corporate Default Swap Valuation: The Implications of Functional Forms," Fordham Economics Dissertations, Fordham University, Department of Economics, number 2005.2, June.
    6. Gurdip Bakshi & Dilip B. Madan & Frank X. Zhang, 2001. "Understanding the role of recovery in default risk models: empirical comparisons and implied recovery rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    8. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Ornthanalai, Chayawat & Wang, Yintian, 2008. "Option valuation with long-run and short-run volatility components," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 272-297, December.
    9. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2010. "Default, Liquidity and Crises : An Econometric Framework," Working Papers 2010-46, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    10. Cremers, Martijn & Driessen, Joost & Maenhout, Pascal & Weinbaum, David, 2008. "Individual stock-option prices and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2706-2715, December.
    11. Arakelyan, Armen & Serrano, Pedro, 2016. "Liquidity in Credit Default Swap Markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 139-157.
    12. Anginer, Deniz & Warburton, A. Joseph, 2014. "The Chrysler effect: The impact of government intervention on borrowing costs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 62-79.
    13. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2007. "Equilibrium Interest Rate and the Yield Curve in a Low Interest Rate Environment," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-18, Bank of Japan.
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    15. Frank de Jong & Joost Driessen & Antoon Pelsser, 2004. "On the Information in the Interest Rate Term Structure and Option Prices," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 99-127, August.
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    18. Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau, 2004. "Entre la peste et le choléra: le détenteur d'obligations peut préférer la répudiation au défaut," Working Papers CEB 04-021.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    19. Albanese, Claudio & Chen, Oliver X., 2006. "Implied migration rates from credit barrier models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 607-626, February.
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    24. Marco Realdon, 2007. "A Two Factor Black-Karasinski Credit Default Swap Pricing Model (forthcoming in the Icfai Journal of Derivatives Markets, Vol IV, No 4, October 2007; all copyrights rest with the Icfai University Pres," Discussion Papers 07/25, Department of Economics, University of York.
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    28. Davide Radi & Vu Phuong Hoang & Gabriele Torri & Hana Dvořáčková, 2021. "A revised version of the Cathcart & El-Jahel model and its application to CDS market," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 669-705, December.
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    33. Delianedis, Gordon & Geske, Robert, 2001. "The Components of Corporate Credit Spreads: Default, Recovery, Tax, Jumps, Liquidity, and Market Factors," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt32x284q3, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
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  19. Gregory R. Duffee, "undated". "Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads: An Empirical Analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.

    Cited by:

    1. Xie, Yan Alice & Liu, Sheen & Wu, Chunchi & Anderson, Bing, 2009. "The effects of default and call risk on bond duration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1700-1708, September.
    2. Carol Alexandra & Jacques Pezier, 2003. "On the Aggregation of Market and Credit Risks," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-13, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    3. Jeremy Leake, 2003. "Credit spreads on sterling corporate bonds and the term structure of UK interest rates," Bank of England working papers 202, Bank of England.
    4. Jonathan Batten & Francis In, 2006. "Dynamic interaction and valuation of quality yen Eurobonds in a multivariate EGARCH framework," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 881-892.
    5. Acharya, Viral & Carpenter, Jennifer, 2002. "Corporate Bond Valuation and Hedging with Stochastic Interest Rates and Endogenous Bankruptcy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3328, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Dailami, Mansoor & Hauswald, Robert, 2001. "Contract risks and credit spread determinants in the international project bond market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2712, The World Bank.
    7. Charles S. Morris & Robert Neal & Doug Rolph, 1998. "Credit spreads and interest rates : a cointegration approach," Research Working Paper 98-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    8. Masazumi Hattori & Koji Koyama & Tatsuya Yonetani, 2001. "Analysis of credit spread in Japan's corporate bond market," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The changing shape of fixed income markets: a collection of studies by central bank economists, volume 5, pages 113-146, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Alejandro Revéiz Hérault, 2002. "Factores determinantes de los márgenes entre bonos del gobierno y bonos corporativos en los Estados Unidos," Lecturas en Finanzas 2710, Banco de la República.
    10. Santos, Joao A.C., 2006. "Why firm access to the bond market differs over the business cycle: A theory and some evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2715-2736, October.
    11. Gregory R. Duffee, "undated". "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Dec 2019.
    12. Galina Hale & João A. C. Santos, 2006. "Evidence on the costs and benefits of bond IPOs," Working Paper Series 2006-42, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Yap Chee Jin & Gannon Gerard, 2011. "Announcement Effect on the Credit Spreads of US Dollar Malaysian Bonds," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(03), pages 449-484.
    14. George Athanassakos & Peter Carayannopoulos, 2001. "An empirical analysis of the relationship of bond yield spreads and macro economic factors," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 197-207.

Articles

  1. Gregory R. Duffee, 2023. "Macroeconomic News in Asset Pricing and Reality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1499-1543, June.

    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & José Alves & Wojciech Grabowski & Sofia Monteiro, 2025. "Stock and Sovereign Returns Linkages: Time-Varying Causality and Extreme-Quantile Determinants," CESifo Working Paper Series 11667, CESifo.

  2. Gregory R. Duffee, 2018. "Expected Inflation and Other Determinants of Treasury Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(5), pages 2139-2180, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    2. Adam Kucera & Evzen Kocenda & Ales Marsal, 2022. "Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Working Papers IES 2022/04, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2022.
    3. Alexandre Corhay & Thilo Kind & Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales, 2021. "Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory," Staff Working Papers 21-58, Bank of Canada.
    4. Marco Giacoletti & Kristoffer T. Laursen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Learning From Disagreement in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 395-441, February.
    5. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2020. "Time-Varying Consumer Disagreement and Future Inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Granziera, Eleonora & Sihvonen, Markus, 2024. "Bonds, currencies and expectational errors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    8. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Pradhan, H.K. & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Sensoy, Ahmet & Dann, Susan, 2024. "Anatomy of sovereign yield behaviour using textual news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    9. Wenxin Du & Carolin E. Pflueger & Jesse Schreger, 2020. "Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3097-3138, December.
    10. Jordan Brooks & Michael Katz & Hanno Lustig, 2018. "Post-FOMC Announcement Drift in U.S. Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 25127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Karahan, Cenk C. & Soykök, Emre, 2022. "Term premium dynamics in an emerging market: Risk, liquidity, and behavioral factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Stefania D’Amico & N Aaron Pancost, 2022. "Special Repo Rates and the Cross-Section of Bond Prices: The Role of the Special Collateral Risk Premium [Pr icing the term structure with linear regressions]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 117-162.
    13. Andrés Schneider, 2022. "Risk‐Sharing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2331-2374, August.
    14. Andrews, Spencer & Colacito, Riccardo & Croce, Mariano M. & Gavazzoni, Federico, 2024. "Concealed carry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    15. Haitham A. Al-Zoubi, 2024. "An affine model for short rates when monetary policy is path dependent," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 151-201, July.
    16. Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-086, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    18. Verner, Robert & Tkáč, Michal, 2023. "On the predictability of bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    19. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin, 2019. "The Topology of Time Series: Improving Recession Forecasting from Yield Spreads," Working Papers 2019-02, Swansea University, School of Management.
    20. Gregory R Duffee, 2023. "Macroeconomic News and Stock–Bond Comovement," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(5), pages 1859-1882.
    21. Ermolov, Andrey, 2022. "Time-varying risk of nominal bonds: How important are macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 1-28.
    22. Valentin Haddad & David A. Sraer, 2019. "The Banking View of Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 26369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Bretscher, Lorenzo & Hsu, Alex & Tamoni, Andrea, 2020. "Fiscal policy driven bond risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 53-73.
    24. Al-Zoubi, Haitham A., 2019. "Bond and option prices with permanent shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 272-290.
    25. Cieslak, Anna & Pang, Hao, 2021. "Common shocks in stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 880-904.
    26. Chen, Yong & Fang, Jing & Liu, Dingming, 2023. "The effects of Trump’s trade war on U.S. financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    27. Box, Travis & Davis, Ryan & Evans, Richard & Lynch, Andrew, 2021. "Intraday arbitrage between ETFs and their underlying portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1078-1095.
    28. Konstantinos Bisiotis & Stelios Psarakis & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2022. "Affine Term Structure Models: Applications in Portfolio Optimization and Change Point Detection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-33, November.
    29. Alexandros Kontonikas & Charles Nolan & Zivile Zekaite & Michael Lamla, 2019. "Treasuries variance decomposition and the impact of monetary policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 1506-1519, October.
    30. Mauro Costantini & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2020. "Consumption, asset wealth, equity premium, term spread, and flight to quality," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(3), pages 778-807, June.
    31. Gregory R. Duffee, 2023. "Macroeconomic News in Asset Pricing and Reality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1499-1543, June.
    32. Kroencke, Tim A., 2022. "Recessions and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 61-77.
    33. Gozluklu, Arie & Morin, Annaïg, 2019. "Stock vs. Bond yields and demographic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

  3. Gregory R. Duffee & Richard H. Stanton, 2012. "Estimation of Dynamic Term Structure Models," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 1-51.

    Cited by:

    1. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Mauad, Roberto Baltieri, 2012. "Non-Parametric Pricing of Interest Rates Options," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 32(2), April.
    2. Andrea Carriero & Lorenzo Ricci & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2022. "Expectations and term premia in EFSF bond yields," Working Papers 54, European Stability Mechanism.
    3. Recchioni, Maria Cristina & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2017. "From bond yield to macroeconomic instability: A parsimonious affine model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(3), pages 1116-1135.
    4. S. Mouabbi, 2014. "An arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel term structure model with stochastic volatility for the determination of currency risk premia," Working papers 527, Banque de France.
    5. Juneja, Januj A., 2016. "Financial crises and estimation bias in international bond markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 593-607.
    6. Peter Christoffersen & Christian Dorion & Kris Jacobs & Lotfi Karoui, 2014. "Nonlinear Kalman Filtering in Affine Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(9), pages 2248-2268, September.
    7. Januj Amar Juneja, 2021. "How do invariant transformations affect the calibration and optimization of the Kalman filtering algorithm used in the estimation of continuous-time affine term structure models?," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 73-97, January.
    8. Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Kalogeropoulos, Konstantinos & Karouzakis, Nikolaos, 2024. "Sequential learning and economic benefits from dynamic term structure models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123659, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2013. "A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Staff Working Papers 13-10, Bank of Canada.
    10. Zhang, Yuhua & Niu, Yingjie & Wu, Ting, 2020. "Stochastic interest rates under rational inattention," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. Geiger, Felix & Schupp, Fabian, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," Discussion Papers 27/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Hitesh Doshi & Kris Jacobs & Rui Liu, 2021. "Information in the Term Structure: A Forecasting Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5255-5277, August.
    14. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2014. "No Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 9848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    16. Andrea Berardi, 2013. "Inflation Risk Premia, Yield Volatility and Macro Factors," Working Papers 27/2013, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    17. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    18. Cheng, Benjamin & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Schlögl, Erik, 2018. "Pricing of long-dated commodity derivatives: Do stochastic interest rates matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 148-166.
    19. esposito, francesco paolo & cummins, mark, 2015. "Filtering and likelihood estimation of latent factor jump-diffusions with an application to stochastic volatility models," MPRA Paper 64987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. S. Dang-Nguyen & Y. Rakotondratsimba, 2016. "Control of price acceptability under the univariate Vasicek model," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-40, September.
    21. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2017. "Optimal Estimation of Multi-Country Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Using Linear Regressions," Staff Working Papers 17-33, Bank of Canada.
    22. Michele Leonardo Bianchi, 2018. "Are multi-factor Gaussian term structure models still useful? An empirical analysis on Italian BTPs," Papers 1805.09996, arXiv.org.
    23. Sungjun Cho & Liu Liu, 2023. "Correcting estimation bias in regime switching dynamic term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1093-1127, October.
    24. Almeida, Caio & Ardison, Kym & Kubudi, Daniela, 2014. "Approximating Risk Premium on a Parametric Arbitrage-free Term Structure Model," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 34(2), November.
    25. Januj Juneja, 2015. "An evaluation of alternative methods used in the estimation of Gaussian term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-24, January.
    26. Al-Zoubi, Haitham A., 2019. "Bond and option prices with permanent shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 272-290.
    27. Guarin, Alexander & Liu, Xiaoquan & Ng, Wing Lon, 2014. "Recovering default risk from CDS spreads with a nonlinear filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 87-104.
    28. Zehra Eksi & Damir Filipovi'c, 2020. "Affine Pricing and Hedging of Collateralized Debt Obligations," Papers 2011.10101, arXiv.org.
    29. Jingnan Chen & Mark D. Flood & Richard B. Sowers, 2015. "Measuring the Unmeasurable: An Application of Uncertainty Quantification to Financial Portfolios," Working Papers 15-19, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    30. Gao, Xin & Li, Bingxin & Liu, Rui, 2023. "The relative pricing of WTI and Brent crude oil futures: Expectations or risk premia?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    31. Nikolaos Karouzakis, 2021. "The role of time‐varying risk premia in international interbank markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5720-5745, October.
    32. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2024. "Modeling volatility in dynamic term structure models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

  4. Gregory R. Duffee, 2011. "Information in (and not in) the Term Structure," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 2895-2934.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Duffee, Greg, 2009. "Moral hazard and adverse selection in the originate-to-distribute model of bank credit," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 744-747, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Zagonov, Maxim, 2011. "Securitization and bank intermediation function," MPRA Paper 34961, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2011.
    2. Butzbach Olivier & von Mettenheim Kurt E., 2015. "Alternative Banking and Theory," Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 105-171, July.
    3. Liu, Luke, 2011. "Securitization and moral hazard: Does security price matter?," MPRA Paper 35004, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  6. Gregory R. Duffee, 2008. "Evidence on Simulation Inference for Near Unit-Root Processes with Implications for Term Structure Estimation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 108-142, Winter.

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Fuleky & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Indirect Inference Based on the Score," Working Papers UWEC-2010-08, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    2. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Lyrio, Marco, 2018. "A macro-financial analysis of the corporate bond market," Working Paper Series 2214, European Central Bank.
    3. Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Revisiting the predictability of bond risk premia," Working Papers 2009-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Perea, Maite de Sola, 2015. "A macro-financial analysis of the euro area sovereign bond market," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2015009, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    5. Chiarella, Carl & Hsiao, Chih-Ying & Tô, Thuy-Duong, 2016. "Stochastic correlation and risk premia in term structure models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 59-78.
    6. Golombek, Rolf & Raknerud, Arvid, 2018. "Exit dynamics of start-up firms: Structural estimation using indirect inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 204-225.
    7. Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2015. "A Quadratic Kalman Filter," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 43-56.
    8. Juneja, Januj, 2017. "How Germany benefits the most from its Eurozone membership," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1074-1088.
    9. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2012. "Identification and estimation of Gaussian affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 315-331.
    10. Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working papers 234, Banque de France.

  7. Duffee, Gregory R., 2006. "Term structure estimation without using latent factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 507-536, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Gregory R. Duffee, 2005. "Time Variation in the Covariance between Stock Returns and Consumption Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1673-1712, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Söderlind, Paul, 2005. "C-CAPM Without Ex Post Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Are Stock and Housing Returns Complements or Substitutes? Evidence from OECD Countries," NIPE Working Papers 33/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
    4. Matteo Maggiori, 2013. "The U.S. Dollar Safety Premium," 2013 Meeting Papers 75, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Paul Söderlind, 2006. "C-CAPM Refinements and the Cross-Section of Returns," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2006 2006-07, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    6. Quijano, Margot, 2012. "A refined consumption–wealth ratio and its role on time-varying consumption risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 88-90.
    7. Jonathan Berk & Johan Walden, 2010. "Limited Capital Market Participation and Human Capital Risk," NBER Working Papers 15709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Consumption, Wealth, Stock and Housing Returns: Evidence from Emerging Markets," NIPE Working Papers 32/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    9. Elkamhi, Redouane & Jo, Chanik, 2023. "Asset holders’ consumption risk and tests of conditional CCAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 220-244.
    10. Li, George, 2008. "Aggregate stock market behavior and investors' low risk aversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2349-2369, July.
    11. Sousa, João & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Asset returns under model uncertainty: evidence from the euro area, the U.S. and the U.K," Working Paper Series 1575, European Central Bank.
    12. Margot Quijano, 2013. "Consumption, change in expectations and equity returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(24), pages 1839-1851, December.
    13. Anisha Ghosh & George M. Constantinides, 2017. "What Information Drives Asset Prices?," NBER Working Papers 23689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Martin Berka & Christian Zimmermann, 2011. "Basel Accord and financial intermediation: the impact of policy," Working Papers 2011-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau & Daniel Greenwald, 2014. "The Origins of Stock Market Fluctuations," 2014 Meeting Papers 542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2006. "Consumption, (Dis)Aggregate Wealth and Asset Returns," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 212, Society for Computational Economics.
    17. Sousa, João & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Predicting risk premium under changes in the conditional distribution of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 204-218.
    18. Boguth, Oliver & Carlson, Murray & Fisher, Adlai & Simutin, Mikhail, 2011. "Conditional risk and performance evaluation: Volatility timing, overconditioning, and new estimates of momentum alphas," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 363-389.
    19. Bandi, Federico M. & Bretscher, Lorenzo & Tamoni, Andrea, 2023. "Return predictability with endogenous growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    20. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: An alternative view," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 455-466, December.
    21. Xu, Nancy R., 2021. "Procyclicality of the comovement between dividend growth and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 288-312.
    22. Juan M. Londono & Nancy R. Xu, 2019. "Variance Risk Premium Components and International Stock Return Predictability," International Finance Discussion Papers 1247, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. João Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Eveidence from the euro area, the U.K and the U.S," NIPE Working Papers 21/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    24. Hongye Guo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. ""Superstitious" Investors," NBER Working Papers 25603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Cho, Sungjun, 2014. "What drives stochastic risk aversion?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 44-63.
    26. Nicolae Gârleanu & Stavros Panageas & Jianfeng Yu, 2012. "Technological Growth and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1265-1292, August.
    27. Roussanov, Nikolai, 2014. "Composition of wealth, conditioning information, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 352-380.
    28. Huang, Lin & Wang, Zijun, 2014. "Is the investment factor a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities? The US and international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 219-232.
    29. Sarkar, Asani & Zhang, Lingjia, 2009. "Time varying consumption covariance and dynamics of the equity premium: Evidence from the G7 countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 613-631, September.
    30. Miguel Palacios, 2010. "Human Capital as an Asset Class: Implications from a General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 2011-016, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    31. Kraus, Alan & Sagi, Jacob S., 2006. "Asset pricing with unforeseen contingencies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 417-453, November.
    32. Viceira, Luis M., 2012. "Bond risk, bond return volatility, and the term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 97-117.
    33. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2010. "Collateralizable Wealth, Asset Returns, and Systemic Risk: International Evidence," NIPE Working Papers 15/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    34. Jonathan B. Berk & Johan Walden, 2013. "Limited Capital Market Participation and Human Capital Risk," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 1-37.
    35. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906, Elsevier.
    36. Jessica Leutert, 2018. "The Swiss franc safety premium," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-21, December.
    37. Wang, Zijun & Khan, M. Moosa, 2017. "Market states and the risk-return tradeoff," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 314-327.

  9. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Duffee, Gregory R. & Zhou, Chunsheng, 2001. "Credit derivatives in banking: Useful tools for managing risk?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 25-54, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Duffee, Gregory R, 1996. "Idiosyncratic Variation of Treasury Bill Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 527-551, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Duffee, Gregory R., 1996. "On measuring credit risks of derivative instruments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 805-833, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Duffee, Gregory R., 1995. "Stock returns and volatility A firm-level analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 399-420, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Jondeau, Eric & Zhang, Qunzi & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2019. "Average skewness matters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 29-47.
    2. el Alaoui, AbdelKader O. & Ismath Bacha, Obiyathulla & Masih, Mansur & Asutay, Mehmet, 2017. "Leverage versus volatility: Evidence from the capital structure of European firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 145-160.
    3. A. W. Rathgeber & J. Stadler & S. Stöckl, 2021. "The impact of the leverage effect on the implied volatility smile: evidence for the German option market," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 95-133, July.
    4. Foucault, Thierry & Themar, David & Sraer, David, 2008. "Individual investors and volatility," HEC Research Papers Series 899, HEC Paris.
    5. Christos Floros & Konstantinos Gkillas & Christoforos Konstantatos & Athanasios Tsagkanos, 2020. "Realized Measures to Explain Volatility Changes over Time," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-19, June.
    6. Jiao, Peiran & Veiga, André & Walther, Ansgar, 2020. "Social media, news media and the stock market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 63-90.
    7. de Andrés, Pablo & de la Fuente, Gabriel & Velasco, Pilar, 2016. "Are real options a missing piece in the diversification-value puzzle?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 261-271.
    8. Giulia Di Nunno & Kk{e}stutis Kubilius & Yuliya Mishura & Anton Yurchenko-Tytarenko, 2023. "From constant to rough: A survey of continuous volatility modeling," Papers 2309.01033, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    9. Thomakos, Dimitrios D. & Wang, Tao, 2003. "Realized volatility in the futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 321-353, May.
    10. Faisal Khan & Saif-Ur-Rehman Khan & Hashim Khan, 2016. "Pricing of Risk, Various Volatility Dynamics and Macroeconomic Exposure of Firm Returns: New Evidence on Age Effect," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 551-561.
    11. Xiaoquan Jiang & Bong‐Soo Lee, 2006. "The Dynamic Relation Between Returns and Idiosyncratic Volatility," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 43-65, June.
    12. Ana Isabel Ramos Domingues & António de Melo da Costa Cerqueira & Elísio Fernando Moreira Brandão, 2016. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and Earnings Quality: Evidence from United Kingdom," FEP Working Papers 579, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    13. Michael S. Gibson, 2001. "Incorporating event risk into value-at-risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Christophe Chorro & Dominique Guegan & Florian Ielpo & Hanjarivo Lalaharison, 2014. "Testing for Leverage Effects in the Returns of US Equities," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14022r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Jan 2017.
    15. Proelss, Juliane & Schweizer, Denis & Seiler, Volker, 2020. "The economic importance of rare earth elements volatility forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    16. Shih-Yung Wei & Jao-Hong Cheng & Li-Wei Lin & Su-Mei Gan, 2020. "Volatility Asymmetry of Scale Indexes - Taking China as an Example," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 158-169.
    17. Jin, Xiaoye, 2017. "Time-varying return-volatility relation in international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 157-173.
    18. Yueh-Neng Lin & Ken Hung, 2008. "Is Volatility Priced?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(1), pages 39-75, May.
    19. Price, Joseph M. & Sun, Wenbin, 2017. "Doing good and doing bad: The impact of corporate social responsibility and irresponsibility on firm performance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 82-97.
    20. Arısoy, Yakup Eser & Altay-Salih, Aslıhan & Akdeniz, Levent, 2015. "Aggregate volatility expectations and threshold CAPM," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 231-253.
    21. Chien-Liang Chiu & Shu-Mei Chiang & Feng Kao, 2006. "The relationship between the S&P 500 spot and futures indices: brothers or cousins?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 405-412.
    22. Bhuyan, Md Nazmul Hasan & Okafor, Collins E. & Cho, Eunho, 2022. "Do friendly boards impact the value of real options?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    23. Bollerslev, Tim & Zhou, Hao, 2006. "Volatility puzzles: a simple framework for gauging return-volatility regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 123-150.
    24. Lorne N. Switzer & Cagdas Tahaoglu & Yun Zhao, 2017. "Volatility measures as predictors of extreme returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 1-10, November.
    25. Hyun-Han Shin & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "Firm Value, Risk, and Growth Opportunities," NBER Working Papers 7808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Gregory R. Duffee, 1995. "The variation of default risk with Treasury yields," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 29-58.

    Cited by:

    1. Hugues Pirotte & Didier Cossin, 1997. "Swap Credit Risk: An Empirical Investigation on Transaction Data," Working Papers CEB 97-001, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Hugues Pirotte, 1999. "Implementing a Structural Valuation Model of Swap Credit-Sensitive Rates," Working Papers CEB 99-001.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Steven B. Kamin & Karsten von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging market credit spreads in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 653, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Chapters

  1. Duffee, Gregory, 2013. "Forecasting Interest Rates," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 385-426, Elsevier.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Duffee, Gregory R., 2013. "Bond Pricing and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 907-967, Elsevier.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.
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