IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/18836.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Growth Options and Firm Valuation

Author

Listed:
  • Holger Kraft
  • Eduardo S. Schwartz
  • Farina Weiss

Abstract

This paper studies the relation between firm value and a firm's growth options. We find strong empirical evidence that (average) Tobin's Q increases with firm-level volatility. The significance mainly comes from R&D firms, which have more growth options than non-R&D firms. By decomposing firm-level volatility into its systematic and unsystematic part, we document that only idiosyncratic volatility has a significant effect on valuation. Second, we analyze the relation of stock returns to realized contemporaneous idiosyncratic volatility and R&D expenses. Single sorting on idiosyncratic volatility yields a significant negative relation between portfolio alphas and contemporaneous idiosyncratic volatility for non-R&D portfolios, whereas in a four-factor model the portfolio alphas of R&D portfolios are all positive. Double sorting on idiosyncratic volatility and R&D expenses also reveals these differences between R&D and non-R&D firms. To control for several explanatory variables simultaneously, we also run panel regressions of firm-level alphas which confirm the relative importance of idiosyncratic volatility that is amplified by R&D expenses. Finally, we show that our results are robust to the definition of idiosyncratic volatility. We tease out the "true" idiosyncratic volatilities by performing a principal-component analysis on the residuals of Fama-French regressions and find that our main results still hold for this alternative definition of idiosyncratic volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Kraft & Eduardo S. Schwartz & Farina Weiss, 2013. "Growth Options and Firm Valuation," NBER Working Papers 18836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18836
    Note: AP
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18836.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Murray Carlson & Adlai Fisher & Ron Giammarino, 2010. "SEO Risk Dynamics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(11), pages 4026-4077, November.
    2. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 29-58, March.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1987. "A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    4. Ang, Andrew & Hodrick, Robert J. & Xing, Yuhang & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2009. "High idiosyncratic volatility and low returns: International and further U.S. evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-23, January.
    5. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    6. Ľuboš Pástor & Veronesi Pietro, 2003. "Stock Valuation and Learning about Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1749-1789, October.
    7. Dirk Czarnitzki & Bronwyn H. Hall & Raffaele Oriani, 2006. "Market Valuation of US and European Intellectual Property," Chapters, in: Derek Bosworth & Elizabeth Webster (ed.), The Management of Intellectual Property, volume 0, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Fu, Fangjian, 2009. "Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 24-37, January.
    9. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2012. "A Theory of Firm Characteristics and Stock Returns: The Role of Investment-Specific Shocks," NBER Working Papers 17975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    11. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    12. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    13. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    14. Felipe L. Aguerrevere, 2009. "Real Options, Product Market Competition, and Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 957-983, April.
    15. Charles Cao & Timothy Simin & Jing Zhao, 2008. "Can Growth Options Explain the Trend in Idiosyncratic Risk?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2599-2633, November.
    16. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:5:p:1749-1790 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    18. Jason D. Fink & Kristin E. Fink & Hui He, 2012. "Expected Idiosyncratic Volatility Measures and Expected Returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 519-553, September.
    19. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    20. Roll, Richard & Schwartz, Eduardo & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2009. "Options trading activity and firm valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 345-360, December.
    21. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1999. "Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1553-1607, October.
    22. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    23. Gustavo Grullon & Evgeny Lyandres & Alexei Zhdanov, 2012. "Real Options, Volatility, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1499-1537, August.
    24. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    25. Zhanhui Chen & Ralitsa Petkova, 2012. "Does Idiosyncratic Volatility Proxy for Risk Exposure?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2745-2787.
    26. Louis K. C. Chan & Josef Lakonishok & Theodore Sougiannis, 2001. "The Stock Market Valuation of Research and Development Expenditures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2431-2456, December.
    27. McConnell, John J. & Muscarella, Chris J., 1985. "Corporate capital expenditure decisions and the market value of the firm," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 399-422, September.
    28. Duffee, Gregory R., 1995. "Stock returns and volatility A firm-level analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 399-420, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vegard Høghaug Larsen, 2021. "Components Of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 769-788, May.
    2. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    4. Samaniego, Roberto & Sun, Juliana, 2016. "Gray's Anatomy: Understanding Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 72787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Suzuki, Kazuyuki & Chida, Ryokichi, 2017. "Contribution of R&D capital to differences in Tobin's q among Japanese manufacturing firms: Evidence from an investment-based asset pricing model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 38-58.
    6. Binding, Garret & Dibiasi, Andreas, 2017. "Exchange rate uncertainty and firm investment plans evidence from Swiss survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-27.
    7. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Şerban Miclea & Simina Silvana Suciu & Matei Tămăşilă, 2018. "Firm-level investment in the extractive industry from CEE countries: the role of macroeconomic uncertainty and internal conditions," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 193-208, June.
    8. Rodrigo Cerda & Álvaro Silva & José Tomás Valente, 2018. "Impact of economic uncertainty in a small open economy: the case of Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(26), pages 2894-2908, June.
    9. Xiaofen Tan & Yongjiao Ma, 2017. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on international commodity prices," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 163-184, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kraft, Holger & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Weiss, Farina, 2017. "Growth options and firm valuation," SAFE Working Paper Series 6, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2017.
    2. Holger Kraft & Eduardo Schwartz & Farina Weiss, 2018. "Growth options and firm valuation," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(2), pages 209-238, March.
    3. Huang, Chia-Wei & Ho, Po-Hsin & Lin, Chih-Yung & Yen, Ju-Fang, 2014. "Firm age, idiosyncratic risk, and long-run SEO underperformance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 246-266.
    4. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    5. Yunting Liu, 2022. "The Short-Run and Long-Run Components of Idiosyncratic Volatility and Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 1573-1589, February.
    6. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    7. Bhamra, Harjoat S. & Shim, Kyung Hwan, 2017. "Stochastic idiosyncratic cash flow risk and real options: Implications for stock returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 400-431.
    8. Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen & Neophytos Lambertides & Christos S. Savva, 2019. "Idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: influence of macro-finance factors," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 381-401, February.
    9. Su, Zhi & Shu, Tengjia & Yin, Libo, 2018. "The pricing effect of the common pattern in firm-level idiosyncratic volatility: Evidence from A-Share stocks of China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 497(C), pages 218-235.
    10. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2010. "Relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1637-1649, July.
    11. Aboulamer, Anas & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2016. "Are idiosyncratic volatility and MAX priced in the Canadian market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-36.
    12. Kumari, Jyoti & Mahakud, Jitendra & Hiremath, Gourishankar S., 2017. "Determinants of idiosyncratic volatility: Evidence from the Indian stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 172-184.
    13. Shi, Yanlin & Liu, Wai-Man & Ho, Kin-Yip, 2016. "Public news arrival and the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 159-172.
    14. Vozlyublennaia, Nadia, 2013. "Do firm characteristics matter for the dynamics of idiosyncratic risk?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 35-46.
    15. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Cao, Xu & Lazrak, Skander & Wang, Yan, 2019. "Do idiosyncratic skewness and kurtosis really matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Holger Kraft & Eduardo Schwartz, 2015. "Cash Flow Multipliers and Optimal Investment Decisions," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(3), pages 399-429, June.
    17. Turan G. Bali & Florian Weigert, 2018. "Have Hedge Funds Solved the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle?," Working Papers on Finance 1827, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    18. Liu, Hao & Chen, Yue & Wan, Wei & Zhang, Qun, 2021. "A novel explanation for idiosyncratic volatility anomaly: An asset decomposition perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    19. Fenner, Richard G. & Han, Yufeng & Huang, Zhaodan, 2020. "Idiosyncratic volatility shocks, behavior bias, and cross-sectional stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 276-293.
    20. Lee, Seunghyup, 2022. "Political orientation and compensation for idiosyncratic risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18836. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.