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The stability of interest rate processes

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  • Robert R. Bliss
  • David C. Smith

Abstract

This paper presents a careful reexamination of Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff, and Sanders (CKLS 1992). By redefining the possible regime shift period in line with evidence from known policy changes and past empirical research, we find evidence that contradicts the major results in their paper. The widely cited conclusion of their paper is that the elasticity of interest rate volatility is 1.5. CKLS also concluded that there was no structural shift in the interest rate process after October 1979. When the structural shift period is defined to be temporary and coincident with the Federal Reserve Experiment of October 1979 through September 1982, we find that there is strong evidence of a structural break. Furthermore, we find evidence that, contrary to CKLS's claim, a moderately elastic interest rate process can capture the dependence of volatility on the level of interest rates, while highly elastic models cannot. In particular, this study finds support for the square-root CIR process. These results are robust to changes in the short-rate data used and the treatment of outliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert R. Bliss & David C. Smith, 1997. "The stability of interest rate processes," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:97-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dennis Philip & Chihwa Kao & Giovanni Urga, 2007. "Testing for Instability in Factor Structure of Yield Curves," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 96, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    2. Beliaeva, Natalia & Nawalkha, Sanjay, 2012. "Pricing American interest rate options under the jump-extended constant-elasticity-of-variance short rate models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 151-163.
    3. Francis X. Diebold & Lei Ji & Canlin Li, 2006. "A Three-Factor Yield Curve Model: Non-Affine Structure, Systematic Risk Sources and Generalized Duration," Chapters, in: Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Long-run Growth and Short-run Stabilization, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Robert R. Bliss, 1997. "Movements in the term structure of interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 82(Q 4), pages 16-33.
    5. Roberds, William & Whiteman, Charles H., 1999. "Endogenous term premia and anomalies in the term structure of interest rates: Explaining the predictability smile," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 555-580, December.
    6. Michalis Ioannides & Frank Skinner, 2003. "Parametric estimation of different interest rate processes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 431-446.

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