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Longer-term Yield Decomposition: An Analysis of the Czech Government Yield Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Kucera
  • Michal Dvorak
  • Lubos Komarek
  • Zlatuse Komarkova

Abstract

The term structure of yields is an important source of information on market expectations about future macroeconomic developments and investors' risk perceptions and preferences. This paper presents the methodology used by the Czech National Bank to obtain such information. It describes the decomposition of the Czech government bond yield curve into its components. The evolution of those components is interpreted in relation to the macro-financial environment, as embodied by selected variables. The practical use of the decomposition in estimating and interpreting the responses of the Czech government bond yield curve to macroeconomic and financial shocks is presented using a vector autoregression model.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Kucera & Michal Dvorak & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2017. "Longer-term Yield Decomposition: An Analysis of the Czech Government Yield Curve," Working Papers 2017/12, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2017/12
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    1. repec:cnb:ocpubc:fsr1617/3 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Martina Makarieva, 2021. "Yield curve modelling and forecasting in an undeveloped financial market: The case of Bulgaria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 61-83,84-10.
    3. Michal Dvorák & Zlatuše Komárková & Adam Kucera, 2019. "The Czech Government Yield Curve Decomposition at the Lower Bound," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 2-36, February.
    4. Marcin Dec, 2021. "Parsimonious yield curve modeling in less liquid markets," GRAPE Working Papers 52, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Affine model; decomposition; government bond; yield curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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