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Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs

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  • MICHAEL BAUER
  • MIKHAIL CHERNOV

Abstract

Conditional skewness of Treasury yields is an important indicator of the risks to the macroeconomic outlook. Positive skewness signals upside risk to interest rates during periods of accommodative monetary policy and an upward‐sloping yield curve, and vice versa. Skewness has substantial predictive power for future bond excess returns, high‐frequency interest rate changes around Federal Open Market Committee announcements, and survey forecast errors for interest rates. The estimated expectational errors, or biases in beliefs, are quantitatively important for statistical bond risk premia. These findings are consistent with a heterogeneous‐beliefs model in which one of the agents is wrong about consumption growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Bauer & Mikhail Chernov, 2024. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 173-217, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:79:y:2024:i:1:p:173-217
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13276
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    2. Guljanov, Gaygysyz & Mutschler, Willi & Trede, Mark, 2022. "Pruned Skewed Kalman Filter and Smoother: With Application to the Yield Curve," Dynare Working Papers 78, CEPREMAP.
    3. Alistair Macaulay & Wenting Song, 2022. "Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media," Economics Series Working Papers 973, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Frédéric Vrins & Linqi Wang, 2023. "Asymmetric short-rate model without lower bound," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 279-295, February.
    5. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2024. "US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes," Working Paper Series 2919, European Central Bank.
    6. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2022. "Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2353-2392, July.
    7. Busetto, Filippo, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 1058, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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