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A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  • Vayanos, Dimitri
  • ,

Abstract

We model the term structure of interest rates as resulting from the interaction between investor clienteles with preferences for specific maturities and risk-averse arbitrageurs. Because arbitrageurs are risk averse, shocks to clienteles' demand for bonds affect the term structure---and constitute an additional determinant of bond prices to current and expected future short rates. At the same time, because arbitrageurs render the term structure arbitrage-free, demand effects satisfy no-arbitrage restrictions and can be quite different from the underlying shocks. We show that the preferred-habitat view of the term structure generates a rich set of implications for bond risk premia, the effects of demand shocks and of shocks to short-rate expectations, the economic role of carry trades, and the transmission of monetary policy.

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  • Vayanos, Dimitri & ,, 2009. "A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 7547, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7547
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    Keywords

    Bond risk premia; Carry trades; Limited arbitrage; Preferred habitat; Term structure of interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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