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Level-ARCH Short Rate Models with Regime Switching: Bivariate Modeling of US and European Short Rates

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This paper introduces regime switching volatility into level- ARCH models for the short rates of the US, the UK, and Germany. Once regime switching and level effects are included there are no gains from including ARCH effects. It is of secondary importance exactly how the regime switching is specified. The estimated level parameters are very different across countries. The corresponding new bivariate models for the US and UK short rates show that the states of the US and UK short rate volatilities are not independent nor identical. Equivalently, the US and German volatility states are neither independent nor identical

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  • Christiansen, Charlotte, 2005. "Level-ARCH Short Rate Models with Regime Switching: Bivariate Modeling of US and European Short Rates," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2005-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhb:aarbfi:2005-03
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    3. Nowman, K.B. & Yahia, B.B.H., 2008. "Euro and FIBOR interest rates: A continuous time modelling analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1029-1035, December.
    4. Peter Løchte Jørgensen & Domenico De Giovanni, 2010. "Time Charters with Purchase Options in Shipping: Valuation and Risk Management," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 399-430.
    5. Nowman, Khalid Ben, 2010. "Modelling the UK and Euro yield curves using the Generalized Vasicek model: Empirical results from panel data for one and two factor models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 334-341, December.
    6. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Thompson, Mark A., 2010. "Re-examining the dynamic causal oil-macroeconomy relationship," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 298-305, September.
    7. Høg, Esben, 2008. "Volatility and realized quadratic variation of differenced returns : A wavelet method approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2008-06, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    8. Choi Seungmoon, 2009. "Regime-Switching Univariate Diffusion Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-41, March.
    9. Chua, Chew Lian & Suardi, Sandy & Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2013. "Predicting short-term interest rates using Bayesian model averaging: Evidence from weekly and high frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-455.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bivariate short-rate model; International short rates; Level-ARCH model; Regime switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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