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The Banking View of Bond Risk Premia

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  • Valentin Haddad
  • David A. Sraer

Abstract

Banks' balance-sheet exposure to fluctuations in interest rates strongly forecasts excess Treasury bond returns. This result is consistent with optimal risk management, a banking counterpart to the household Euler equation. In equilibrium, the bond risk premium compensates banks for bearing fluctuations in interest rates. When banks' exposure to interest rate risk increases, the price of this risk simultaneously rises. We present a collection of empirical observations supporting this view, but also discuss several challenges to this interpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentin Haddad & David A. Sraer, 2019. "The Banking View of Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 26369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26369
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    3. Kai Li & Chenjie Xu, 2023. "Asset pricing with a financial sector," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 67-95, March.
    4. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2021. "Banking on Deposits: Maturity Transformation without Interest Rate Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1091-1143, June.
    5. Libo Yin & Jing Nie, 2021. "Intermediary asset pricing in currency carry trade returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1241-1267, August.
    6. Du, Wenxin & Hébert, Benjamin & Li, Wenhao, 2023. "Intermediary balance sheets and the treasury yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    7. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson & Dimitri Vayanos, 2023. "Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 31879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Dong, Mei & Huangfu, Stella & Sun, Hongfei & Zhou, Chenggang, 2021. "A macroeconomic theory of banking oligopoly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    9. Paul, Pascal, 2023. "Banks, maturity transformation, and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    10. Hanson, Samuel G. & Malkhozov, Aytek & Venter, Gyuri, 2024. "Demand-and-supply imbalance risk and long-term swap spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    11. Sinclair, Andrew J., 2023. "Do prime brokers intermediate capital?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    12. Adriano A. Rampini & S. Viswanathan & Guillaume Vuillemey, 2020. "Retracted: Risk Management in Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 591-637, April.
    13. Altunok, Fatih & Arslan, Yavuz & Ongena, Steven, 2023. "Monetary Policy Transmission with Adjustable and Fixed Rate Mortgages: The Role of Credit Supply," CEPR Discussion Papers 18293, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2018. "Banking on Deposits: Maturity Transformation without Interest Rate Risk," NBER Working Papers 24582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Zhang, Heming & Wang, Guanying, 2021. "Reversal effect and corporate bond pricing in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    16. Busetto, Filippo, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 1058, Bank of England.
    17. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-049, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Valentin Haddad & Tyler Muir, 2021. "Do Intermediaries Matter for Aggregate Asset Prices?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2719-2761, December.
    19. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein & Adi Sunderam, 2020. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 27615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Valentin Haddad & Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2020. "When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed’s Response," NBER Working Papers 27168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Indrajit Mitra & Yu Xu, 2020. "Limited Household Risk Sharing: General Equilibrium Implications for the Term Structure of Interest Rates," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    22. Ge, Futing & Zhang, Weiguo, 2022. "The determinants of cross-border bond risk premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    23. Li, Kai & Xu, Chenjie, 2024. "Intermediary-based equity term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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