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The recent shift in term structure behavior from a no-arbitrage macro-finance perspective

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  • Glenn D. Rudebusch
  • Tao Wu

Abstract

This paper examines a recent shift in the dynamics of the term structure and interest rate risk. We first use standard yield-spread regressions to document such a shift in the U.S. in the mid-1980s. Over the pre- and post-shift subsamples, we then estimate dynamic, affine, no-arbitrage models, which exhibit a significant difference in behavior that can be largely attributed to changes over time in the pricing of risk associated with a ?level? factor. Finally, we suggest a link between the shift in term structure behavior and changes in the risk and dynamics of the inflation target as perceived by investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "The recent shift in term structure behavior from a no-arbitrage macro-finance perspective," Working Paper Series 2004-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2004-25
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    Cited by:

    1. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2007. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: an equilibrium‐based approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 561-583, May.
    2. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2008. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 71-92, March.
    3. Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2012. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 241-272, February.
    4. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro‐Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    5. Chattopadhyay, Siddhartha & Ghosh, Taniya, 2020. "Taylor Rule implementation of the optimal policy at the zero lower bound: Does the cost channel matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 351-366.
    6. Bennouna, Hicham & Bounader, Lahcen, 2018. "Analyse de la transmission de la politique monétaire vers les taux souverains," Document de travail 2018-2, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    7. EL FAIZ, Zakaria & ZIANI, Manal, 2016. "Influence de la politique monétaire sur le taux long Quelques évidences empiriques, cas du Maroc [The impact of monetary on long rates : Some empirical evidence from Morocco]," MPRA Paper 72817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. McGough, Bruce & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2005. "Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 855-879, July.
    9. Daniel Burren, 2010. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a New Keynesian Model with Time-Varying Macro Volatility," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(2), pages 277-299, November.
    10. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    11. Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Sharon Kozicki & Gordon H. Sellon, 2005. "Longer-term perspectives on the yield curve and monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-33.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Monetary policy; Econometric models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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