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The Banking View of Bond Risk Premia

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  • David Sraer

    (UC Berkeley)

  • Valentin Haddad

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

Banks’ exposure to fluctuations in interest rates strongly forecasts excess Treasury bond returns. This result is consistent with a bank-centric view of the market for interest rate risk. Banks’ activities — accepting deposits and making loans — naturally exposes their balance sheets to changes in interest rates. In equilibrium, the bond risk premium compensates banks for bearing these fluctuations: for instance, when consumers demand for fixed rate mortgages increases, banks have to scale up their exposure to interest rate risk and are compensated by an increase in bond risk premium. A key insight is that the net exposure of banks, rather than quantities of particular types of loans or deposits, reveals the risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • David Sraer & Valentin Haddad, 2016. "The Banking View of Bond Risk Premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 814, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:814
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    Cited by:

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    2. Baltzer, Markus & Koehl, Alexandra & Reitz, Stefan, 2020. "Procyclical leverage in Europe and its role in asset pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
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    4. Kai Li & Chenjie Xu, 2023. "Asset pricing with a financial sector," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 67-95, March.
    5. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2021. "Banking on Deposits: Maturity Transformation without Interest Rate Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1091-1143, June.
    6. Fatih Altunok & Yavuz Arslan & Steven Ongena, 2023. "Monetary Policy Transmission with Adjustable and Fixed Rate Mortgages: The Role of Credit Supply," Working Papers 202305, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    7. Libo Yin & Jing Nie, 2021. "Intermediary asset pricing in currency carry trade returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1241-1267, August.
    8. Du, Wenxin & Hébert, Benjamin & Li, Wenhao, 2023. "Intermediary balance sheets and the treasury yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    9. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson & Dimitri Vayanos, 2023. "Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 31879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Dong, Mei & Huangfu, Stella & Sun, Hongfei & Zhou, Chenggang, 2021. "A macroeconomic theory of banking oligopoly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
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    13. Sinclair, Andrew J., 2023. "Do prime brokers intermediate capital?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    14. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein & Adi Sunderam, 2020. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 27615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    16. Valentin Haddad & Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2020. "When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed’s Response," NBER Working Papers 27168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Adriano A. Rampini & S. Viswanathan & Guillaume Vuillemey, 2020. "Retracted: Risk Management in Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 591-637, April.
    18. Indrajit Mitra & Yu Xu, 2020. "Limited Household Risk Sharing: General Equilibrium Implications for the Term Structure of Interest Rates," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    19. Ge, Futing & Zhang, Weiguo, 2022. "The determinants of cross-border bond risk premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. Li, Kai & Xu, Chenjie, 2024. "Intermediary-based equity term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    21. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2018. "Banking on Deposits: Maturity Transformation without Interest Rate Risk," NBER Working Papers 24582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Zhang, Heming & Wang, Guanying, 2021. "Reversal effect and corporate bond pricing in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    23. Busetto, Filippo, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 1058, Bank of England.

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    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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