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Speculation in Commodity Futures Markets, Inventories and the Price of Crude Oil

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  • Sung Je Byun

Abstract

This paper examines the role of inventories in refiners’ gasoline production and develops a structural model of the relationship between crude oil prices and inventories. Using data on inventories and prices of oil futures, I show that convenience yields decrease at a diminishing rate as inventories increase, consistent with the theory of storage. In addition to exhibiting seasonal and procyclical behaviors, I show that the historical convenience yield averages about 18 percent of the oil price from March 1989 to November 2014. Although some have argued that a breakdown of the relationship between crude oil inventories and prices following increased financial investors’ participation after 2004 was evidence of a speculative effect, I find that the proposed price-inventory relationship is stable over time. The empirical evidence indicates that crude oil prices remained tied to oil-market fundamentals such as inventories, suggesting that the contribution of financial investors’ activities was weak.

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  • Sung Je Byun, 2017. "Speculation in Commodity Futures Markets, Inventories and the Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(5), pages 93-113, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:38:y:2017:i:5:p:93-113
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.38.5.sbyu
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    Cited by:

    1. Chi Zhang & Zhengning Pu & Qin Zhou, 2018. "Sustainable Energy Consumption in Northeast Asia: A Case from China’s Fuel Oil Futures Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Maryam Ahmadi & Niaz Bashiri Behmiri & Matteo Manera, 2020. "The theory of storage in the crude oil futures market, the role of financial conditions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1160-1175, July.
    3. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Miffre, Joelle, 2021. "The risk premia of energy futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Niaz Bashiri Behmiri, Maryam Ahmadi, Juha-Pekka Junttila, and Matteo Manera, 2021. "Financial Stress and Basis in Energy Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    5. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Financial Speculation Impact on Agricultural and Other Commodity Return Volatility: Implications for Sustainable Development and Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-27, November.
    6. Celso Brunetti & Jeffrey H. Harris & Bahattin Büyükşahin, 2024. "Crude Oil Price Movements and Institutional Traders," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, February.
    7. Krzysztof Drachal, 2022. "Forecasting the Crude Oil Spot Price with Bayesian Symbolic Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-29, December.
    8. Mason, Charles F. & Wilmot, Neil A., 2020. "Jumps in the convenience yield of crude oil," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    9. Reinhard Ellwanger, 2017. "On the Tail Risk Premium in the Oil Market," Staff Working Papers 17-46, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Convenience yield; Forecasting oil prices; Speculation; Stable oil; price-inventory relationship; Theory of storage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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