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Synthetic or real? The equilibrium effects of credit default swaps on bond markets

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  • Oehmke, Martin
  • Zawadowski, Adam

Abstract

We provide a model of nonredundant credit default swaps (CDSs), building on the observation that CDSs have lower trading costs than bonds. CDS introduction involves a trade-off: it crowds out existing demand for the bond, but improves the bond allocation by allowing long-term investors to become levered basis traders and absorb more of the bond supply. We characterize conditions under which CDS introduction raises bond prices. The model predicts a negative CDS-bond basis, as well as turnover and price impact patterns that are consistent with empirical evidence. We also show that a ban on naked CDSs can raise borrowing costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Oehmke, Martin & Zawadowski, Adam, 2015. "Synthetic or real? The equilibrium effects of credit default swaps on bond markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 84511, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:84511
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gilchrist, Simon & Wei, Bin & Yue, Vivian Z. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2022. "Sovereign risk and financial risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
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    4. Chaumont, Gaston & Gordon, Grey & Sultanum, Bruno & Tobin, Elliot, 2024. "Sovereign debt and credit default swaps," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
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    6. Buse, Rebekka & Schienle, Melanie & Urban, Jörg, 2019. "Effectiveness of policy and regulation in European sovereign credit risk markets: A network analysis," Working Paper Series in Economics 125, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    7. Feixue Gong & Gregory Phelan, 2023. "Collateral constraints, tranching, and price bases," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 75(2), pages 317-340, February.
    8. Oehmke, Martin & Zawadowski, Adam, 2016. "The anatomy of the CDS market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118964, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Kim, Gi H., 2016. "Credit derivatives as a commitment device: Evidence from the cost of corporate debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 67-83.
    10. Sudheer Chava & Rohan Ganduri & Chayawat Ornthanalai, 2019. "Do Credit Default Swaps Mitigate the Impact of Credit Rating Downgrades?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(3), pages 471-511.
    11. D’Errico, Marco & Battiston, Stefano & Peltonen, Tuomas & Scheicher, Martin, 2018. "How does risk flow in the credit default swap market?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 53-74.
    12. Wang, Xinjie & Wu, Yangru & Yan, Hongjun & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2021. "Funding liquidity shocks in a quasi-experiment: Evidence from the CDS Big Bang," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 545-560.
    13. Rajesh Narayanan & Cihan Uzmanoglu, 2018. "Credit Insurance, Distress Resolution Costs, and Bond Spreads," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 931-951, December.
    14. Gong, Yaxian, 2020. "Credit default swap and two-sided moral hazard," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    15. Salomao, Juliana, 2017. "Sovereign debt renegotiation and credit default swaps," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 50-63.
    16. Anouk Levels & René de Sousa van Stralen & Sînziana Kroon Petrescu & Iman van Lelyveld, 2018. "CDS market structure and risk flows: the Dutch case," DNB Working Papers 592, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Wei Jiang & Jitao Ou & Zhongyan Zhu, 2021. "Mutual Fund Holdings of Credit Default Swaps: Liquidity, Yield, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 537-586, April.
    18. Feixue Gong & Gregory Phelan, 2016. "Debt Collateralization, Structured Finance, and the CDS Basis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016-06, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Aug 2017.
    19. Aragon, George O. & Li, Lei & Qian, Jun ‘QJ’, 2019. "The use of credit default swaps by bond mutual funds: Liquidity provision and counterparty risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 168-185.
    20. Gong Feixue & Gregory Phelan, 2017. "Debt Collateralization, Structured Finance, and the CDS Basis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2017-06, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    21. Buse, Rebekka & Schienle, Melanie & Urban, Jörg, 2022. "Assessing the impact of policy and regulation interventions in European sovereign credit risk networks: What worked best?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    22. Augustin, Patrick & Sokolovski, Valeri & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide, 2022. "How sovereign is sovereign credit risk? Global prices, local quantities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 92-111.
    23. R. Matthew Darst & Ehraz Refayet, 2018. "Credit Default Swaps in General Equilibrium: Endogenous Default and Credit‐Spread Spillovers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1901-1933, December.
    24. Wu, Dexiang & Dash Wu, Desheng, 2019. "An enhanced decision support approach for learning and tracking derivative index," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 63-76.

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