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The quality of public information and the term structure of interest rates

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  • Frederik Lundtofte

Abstract

This paper analyzes the term structure of interest rates in an exchange-only Lucas (Econometrica 46:1429–1445, 1978 ) economy where consumers learn about a stochastic growth rate through observations of the endowment process and an external public signal. We allow for deluded consumers, who exaggerate the degree of covariation between the external public signal and the growth rate. With such consumers, there can be a premium for noisy external public information in long-term bonds and the social value of more precise public information can be negative. Moreover, our model can create excessive yield volatility and deviations from the expectations hypothesis. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013

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  • Frederik Lundtofte, 2013. "The quality of public information and the term structure of interest rates," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 715-740, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:40:y:2013:i:4:p:715-740
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-012-0295-y
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    2. Januj Juneja, 2018. "Empirical performance of Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models in the presence of autocorrelation misspecification bias," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 695-715, April.
    3. Januj Juneja, 2015. "An evaluation of alternative methods used in the estimation of Gaussian term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-24, January.
    4. David Feldman & Charles Trzcinka & Russell Winer, 2015. "Pricing under noisy signaling," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 435-454, August.
    5. David Feldman, 2007. "Incomplete information equilibria: Separation theorems and other myths," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 119-149, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Learning; Information quality; Incomplete information; Term structure of interest rates; C13; G12;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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