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Measuring monetary policy expectations from financial market instruments

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  • Joyce, Michael A. S.
  • Relleen, Jonathan
  • Sorensen, Steffen

Abstract

This paper reviews the main instruments and associated yield curves that can be used to measure financial market participants' expectations of future UK monetary policy rates. We attempt to evaluate these instruments and curves in terms of their ability to forecast policy rates over the period from October 1992, when the United Kingdom first adopted an explicit inflation target, to March 2007. We also investigate several model-based methods of estimating forward term premia, in order to calculate risk-adjusted forward interest rates. On the basis of both in and out-of-sample test results, we conclude that, given the uncertainties involved, it is unwise to rely on any one technique to measure policy rate expectations and that the best approach is to take an inclusive approach, using a variety of methods and information. JEL Classification: E43, E44, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Joyce, Michael A. S. & Relleen, Jonathan & Sorensen, Steffen, 2008. "Measuring monetary policy expectations from financial market instruments," Working Paper Series 978, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008978
    Note: 2595529
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    1. Peter Lildholdt & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & Chris Peacock, 2007. "An affine macro-factor model of the UK yield curve," Bank of England working papers 322, Bank of England.
    2. Joyce, Michael A.S. & Lildholdt, Peter & Sorensen, Steffen, 2010. "Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: A joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 281-294, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Florackis, Chris & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Kostakis, Alexandros, 2014. "Stock market liquidity and macro-liquidity shocks: Evidence from the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 97-117.
    2. Florackis, Chris & Kostakis, Alexandros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2011. "Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-31, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    3. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Gregory Thwaites & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2016. "Monetary Policy Transmission in an Open Economy: New Data and Evidence from the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers 1612, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Aug 2016.
    4. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-01411824, HAL.
    5. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Mauro Gallegati, 2020. "Long-run expectations in a learning-to-forecast experiment: a simulation approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 75-116, January.
    7. Chris Florackis & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2010. "Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis," Working Papers 2011_22, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 2011.
    8. Flavien Fokou Noumbissie, 2014. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Financial Market in South Africa: A VAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(8), pages 636-646.
    9. Alvin Andhika Zulen & Okiriza Wibisono, 2019. "Measuring stakeholders’ expectations for the central bank’s policy rate," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The use of big data analytics and artificial intelligence in central banking, volume 50, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Peter Aling & Shakill Hassan, 2012. "No-Arbitrage One-Factor Models Of The South African Term Structure Of Interest Rates," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 80(3), pages 301-318, September.
    11. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2015. "Unsurprising Shocks: Information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmission," Discussion Papers 1613, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Apr 2016.
    12. Carlo Rosa, 2012. "How "unconventional" are large-scale asset purchases? The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Staff Reports 560, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Lloyd, Simon P., 2020. "Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: Overnight indexed swaps and the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    14. Ye, Xiaoxia, 2012. "Market expectations of the short rate and the term structure of interest rates: a new perspective from the classic model," MPRA Paper 41093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Alvin Andhika Zulen & Okiriza Wibisono, 2019. "Measuring stakeholders’ expectation on central bank’s policy rate," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?, volume 49, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Renne Jean-Paul, 2017. "A model of the euro-area yield curve with discrete policy rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 99-116, February.
    17. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04141591, HAL.
    18. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Thwaites, Gregory & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission in the United Kingdom: A high frequency identification approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    19. Vijay A Murik, 2013. "Measuring monetary policy expectations," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; interest rates; term premia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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