IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/eufman/v16y2010i4p658-685.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Risk Microstructure of Corporate Bonds: A Case Study from the German Corporate Bond Market

Author

Listed:
  • Manfred Frühwirth
  • Paul Schneider
  • Leopold Sögner

Abstract

This article presents joint econometric analysis of interest rate risk, issuer†specific risk (credit risk) and bond†specific risk (liquidity risk) in a reduced†form framework. We estimate issuer†specific and bond†specific risk from corporate bond data in the German market. We find that bond†specific risk plays a crucial role in the pricing of corporate bonds. We observe substantial differences between different bonds with respect to the relative influence of issuer†specific vs. bond†specific spread on the level and the volatility of the total spread. Issuer†specific risk exhibits strong autocorrelation and a strong impact of weekday effects, the level of the risk†free term structure and the debt to value ratio. Moreover, we can observe some impact of the stock market volatility, the respective stock's return and the distance to default. For the bond†specific risk we find strong autocorrelation, some impact of the stock market index, the stock market volatility, weekday effects and monthly effects as well as a very weak impact of the risk†free term structure and the specific stock's return. Altogether, the determinants of the spread components vary strongly between different bonds/issuers.

Suggested Citation

  • Manfred Frühwirth & Paul Schneider & Leopold Sögner, 2010. "The Risk Microstructure of Corporate Bonds: A Case Study from the German Corporate Bond Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(4), pages 658-685, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:16:y:2010:i:4:p:658-685
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-036X.2009.00503.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-036X.2009.00503.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-036X.2009.00503.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keim, Donald B & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1984. "A Further Investigation of the Weekend Effect in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 819-835, July.
    2. repec:bla:eufman:v:4:y:1998:i:1:p:65-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jarrow, Robert A. & Turnbull, Stuart M., 2000. "The intersection of market and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 271-299, January.
    4. Antonio Díaz & Eliseo Navarro, 2002. "Yield Spread and Term to Maturity: Default vs. Liquidity," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 8(4), pages 449-477, December.
    5. Tang, Huarong & Xia, Yihong, 2007. "An International Examination of Affine Term Structure Models and the Expectations Hypothesis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 41-80, March.
    6. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    7. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    8. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Ravit E. Mandell, 2006. "The Market Price of Risk in Interest Rate Swaps: The Roles of Default and Liquidity Risks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2337-2360, September.
    9. Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Goldstein, Robert S. & Jones, Christopher S., 2009. "Can interest rate volatility be extracted from the cross section of bond yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 47-66, October.
    10. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    11. Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, February.
    12. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Fan Yu, 2008. "Default Risk And Diversification: Theory And Empirical Implications," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 19, pages 455-480, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. "An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
    14. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
    15. Cheridito, Patrick & Filipovic, Damir & Kimmel, Robert L., 2007. "Market price of risk specifications for affine models: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-170, January.
    16. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    17. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    18. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
    19. Jean‐François Gajewski, 1999. "Earnings Announcements, Asymmetric Information, Trades and Quotes," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 5(3), pages 411-424, November.
    20. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Kimmel, Robert L., 2010. "Estimating affine multifactor term structure models using closed-form likelihood expansions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 113-144, October.
    21. Florinda Silva & Maria do Céu Cortez & Manuel Rocha Armada, 2003. "Conditioning Information and European Bond Fund Performance," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(2), pages 201-230, June.
    22. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    23. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, February.
    24. Joost Driessen, 2005. "Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 165-195.
    25. Ariel, Robert A., 1987. "A monthly effect in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 161-174, March.
    26. Johnston, Elizabeth Tashijan & Kracaw, William A. & McConnell, John J., 1991. "Day-of-the-Week Effects in Financial Futures: An Analysis of GNMA, T-Bond, T-Note, and T-Bill Contracts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 23-44, March.
    27. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2225-2241 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, February.
    29. Abraham, Abraham & Ikenberry, David L., 1994. "The Individual Investor and the Weekend Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 263-277, June.
    30. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:2:p:431-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield‐Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406, October.
    32. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    33. Hugues Pirotte & Didier Cossin, 1998. "How well do classical credit risk pricing models fit swap transaction data?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/191829, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gündüz, Yalin & Ottonello, Giorgio & Pelizzon, Loriana & Schneider, Michael & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2018. "Lighting up the dark: Liquidity in the German corporate bond market," SAFE Working Paper Series 230, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    2. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Asia Aman, 2019. "Are CDS Spreads Sensitive to the Term Structure of the Yield Curve? A Sector-Wise Analysis under Various Market Conditions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jian Luo & Xiaoxia Ye & May Hu, 2016. "Counter-Credit-Risk Yield Spreads: A Puzzle in China's Corporate Bond Market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 203-241, June.
    2. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Zinna, Gabriele, 2013. "Sovereign default risk premia: Evidence from the default swap market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 15-35.
    4. Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2008. "Decomposing swap spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 375-405, May.
    5. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    6. Kris Jacobs & Xiaofei Li, 2008. "Modeling the Dynamics of Credit Spreads with Stochastic Volatility," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1176-1188, June.
    7. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    8. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    9. Sun, David & Lin, William T. & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2007. "Long run credit risk diversification: empirical decomposition of corporate bond spreads," MPRA Paper 37283, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2008.
    10. Liuren Wu & Frank Xiaoling Zhang, 2008. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of the Credit Spread Term Structure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1160-1175, June.
    11. Lin, William & Sun, David, 2006. "Diversification with idiosyncratic credit spreads: a pooled estimation on heterogeneous panels," MPRA Paper 37288, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2007.
    12. Arakelyan, Armen & Serrano, Pedro, 2016. "Liquidity in Credit Default Swap Markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 139-157.
    13. Peter Christoffersen & Christian Dorion & Kris Jacobs & Lotfi Karoui, 2014. "Nonlinear Kalman Filtering in Affine Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(9), pages 2248-2268, September.
    14. Becchetti, Leonardo & Carpentieri, Andrea & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2009. "The determinants of option-adjusted delta credit spreads : a comparative analysis of the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 34/2009, Bank of Finland.
    15. Filipović, Damir & Trolle, Anders B., 2013. "The term structure of interbank risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 707-733.
    16. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.
    17. Finbarr Murphy & Bernard Murphy, 2012. "A vector-autoregression analysis of credit and liquidity factor dynamics in US LIBOR and Euribor swap markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(2), pages 351-370, April.
    18. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
    19. Becchetti, Leonardo & Carpentieri, Andrea & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2009. "The determinants of option-adjusted delta credit spreads: a comparative analysis of the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 34/2009, Bank of Finland.
    20. Guo, Liang, 2013. "Determinants of credit spreads: The role of ambiguity and information uncertainty," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 279-297.
    21. Song Han & Hao Zhou, 2016. "Effects of Liquidity on the Non-Default Component of Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from Intraday Transactions Data," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-49, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:16:y:2010:i:4:p:658-685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efmaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.