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An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors

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  • Dewachter, Hans
  • Iania, Leonardo

Abstract

This paper extends the benchmark Macro-Finance model by introducing, next to the standard macroeconomic factors, additional liquidity-related and return forecasting factors. Liquidity factors are obtained from a decomposition of the TED spread while the return-forecasting (risk premium) factor is extracted by imposing a single factor structure on excess holding returns. The model is estimated on US data using MCMC techniques. Two findings stand out. First, the model outperforms Macro-Finance benchmark models in fitting the yield curve. Second, financial shocks, either in the form of liquidity or risk premium shocks, have a statistically and economically significant impact on the yield curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo, 2009. "An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors," MPRA Paper 18840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18840
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure; Macro-finance; TED spread; Interbank lending rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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