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Linear credit risk models

Author

Listed:
  • Damien Ackerer

    (Swissquote Bank)

  • Damir Filipović

    (EPFL and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

We introduce a novel class of credit risk models in which the drift of the survival process of a firm is a linear function of the factors. The prices of defaultable bonds and credit default swaps (CDS) are linear–rational in the factors. The price of a CDS option can be uniformly approximated by polynomials in the factors. Multi-name models can produce simultaneous defaults, generate positively as well as negatively correlated default intensities, and accommodate stochastic interest rates. A calibration study illustrates the versatility of these models by fitting CDS spread time series. A numerical analysis validates the efficiency of the option price approximation method.

Suggested Citation

  • Damien Ackerer & Damir Filipović, 2020. "Linear credit risk models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 169-214, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:24:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s00780-019-00409-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s00780-019-00409-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. M.E. Mancino & S. Scotti & G. Toscano, 2020. "Is the Variance Swap Rate Affine in the Spot Variance? Evidence from S&P500 Data," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 288-316, July.
    3. Jin-Biao Lu & Zhi-Jiang Liu & Dmitry Tulenty & Liudmila Tsvetkova & Sebastian Kot, 2021. "RETRACTED: Implementation of Stochastic Analysis in Corporate Decision-Making Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-16, May.
    4. Damir Filipović & Sander Willems, 2020. "A term structure model for dividends and interest rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1461-1496, October.
    5. Christa Cuchiero & Francesco Guida & Luca di Persio & Sara Svaluto-Ferro, 2021. "Measure-valued affine and polynomial diffusions," Papers 2112.15129, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swap; Credit derivatives; Credit risk; Polynomial model; Survival process;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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