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Updating the Long Term Rate in Time: A Possible Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Diana Zigraiova

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic
    Czech National Bank)

  • Petr Jakubik

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)

Abstract

This study proposes the potential methodological approach to be utilized by regulators when setting up a Long-Term Rate (LTR) for the evaluation of insurers’ liabilities beyond the last liquid point observable in the market. Our approach is based on the optimization of two contradictory aspects – stability and accuracy implied by economic fundamentals. We use U.S. Treasury term structure data over the period 1985-2015 to calibrate an algorithm that dynamically revises LTR based on the distance between the value implied by long-term growth of economic fundamentals in a given year and the regulatory value of LTR valid in a year prior. We employ both Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models to extrapolate yields over maturities of 21-30 years employing the selected value of the LTR and compare them to the observed yields using mean square error statistic. Furthermore, we optimise the parameter of the proposed LTR formula by minimising the defined loss function capturing both mentioned factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Diana Zigraiova & Petr Jakubik, 2017. "Updating the Long Term Rate in Time: A Possible Approach," Working Papers IES 2017/03, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Mar 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2017_03
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Casper Christophersen & Petr Jakubik, 2014. "Insurance and the Macroeconomic Environment," EIOPA Financial Stability Report - Thematic Articles 1, EIOPA, Risks and Financial Stability Department.
    2. Duffee, Gregory R, 1996. "Idiosyncratic Variation of Treasury Bill Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 527-551, June.
    3. Tomas Björk & Bent Jesper Christensen, 1999. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348, October.
    4. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2011. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel model?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 393-407, June.
    5. Fatih Macit, 2012. "Who Responds More to Monetary Policy? Conventional Banks or Participation Banks," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 47-56.
    6. Bakk-Simon, Klára & Borgioli, Stefano & Giron, Celestino & Hempell, Hannah Sabine & Maddaloni, Angela & Recine, Fabio & Rosati, Simonetta, 2012. "Shadow banking in the Euro area: an overview," Occasional Paper Series 133, European Central Bank.
    7. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. John Goddard & Phil Molyneux & John O. S. Wilson, 2004. "The profitability of european banks: a cross‐sectional and dynamic panel analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(3), pages 363-381, June.
    9. Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4," CEPR Discussion Papers 1051, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long term rate; Nelson-Siegel; Svensson; Term structure of interest rates; Extrapolation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics

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