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VaR and the cross-section of expected stock returns: an emerging market evidence

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  • Dar-Hsin Chen
  • Chun-Da Chen
  • Su-Chen Wu

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the explanatory power of the market beta, firm size, and the book-to-market ratio, as well as Value-at-Risk regarding the cross-sectional expected stock returns in a less developed stock market - Taiwan's stock market. The main purpose is to examine whether the Value-at-Risk factor has marginal explanatory power related to the Fama-French three-factor model. The empirical results show that Value-at-Risk can account for the average stock returns at both 1% and 5% significance levels based on cross-sectional regression analysis. Moreover, from the perspective of the time series regression, the Value-at-Risk factor can also demonstrate the variation of the stock market, especially for the larger companies in the Taiwan stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Dar-Hsin Chen & Chun-Da Chen & Su-Chen Wu, 2014. "VaR and the cross-section of expected stock returns: an emerging market evidence," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 441-459, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jbemgt:v:15:y:2014:i:3:p:441-459
    DOI: 10.3846/16111699.2012.744343
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Bi, Jia & Zhu, Yifeng, 2020. "Value at risk, cross-sectional returns and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-18.
    5. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    6. Fracasso, Laís Martins & Müller, Fernanda Maria & Ramos, Henrique Pinto & Righi, Marcelo Brutti, 2023. "Is there a risk premium? Evidence from thirteen measures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 182-199.
    7. Sun, Kaisi & Wang, Hui & Zhu, Yifeng, 2024. "What drives the tail risk effect in the Chinese stock market?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Adam ZAREMBA, 2015. "Low Risk Anomaly In The Cee Stock Markets," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 81-102, September.
    9. Gui, Pingshu & Zhu, Yifeng, 2021. "Value at risk and the cross-section of expected returns: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

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