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Forecasting Credit Spread Volatility: Evidence from the Japanese Eurobond Market

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  • Brock Johnson
  • Jonathan Batten

Abstract

Different approaches to forecasting the volatility associated with the credit spreads on Yen Eurobonds are investigated. The actual volatility, historical volatility and estimated conditional volatility on spreads derived from a regression-based model with a GARCH and ARMA specification are compared within an adaptation of Black’s (J. Finance, 31, 1976, 361–367) option-pricing model. Surprisingly, the regression forecast over a medium forecasting horizon suggests that historic volatility provides the better forecast. The implications of these results for volatility forecasting and credit spread modelling are also discussed. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Brock Johnson & Jonathan Batten, 2003. "Forecasting Credit Spread Volatility: Evidence from the Japanese Eurobond Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 10(4), pages 335-357, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:10:y:2003:i:4:p:335-357
    DOI: 10.1007/s10690-005-4242-y
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