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A non-parametric investigation of risk premia

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  • Peroni, Chiara

Abstract

This paper studies determinants of risk premia using a non-parametric term-structure model of the corporate spread. The model, which measures the extra return of defaultable corporate bonds on their government counterparts, involves the rate of inflation, a key macroeconomic variable that is found to explain the spread non-linearly. This study shows that non-linear methods are useful to investigate features of credit risk and that they give better results than their linear counterparts, enabling testing of affine term-structure specifications. The paper also shows how the non-linear model can be used to forecast the future course of the spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Peroni, Chiara, 2008. "A non-parametric investigation of risk premia," MPRA Paper 15010, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Apr 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15010
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    2. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    3. Oliver Linton & E. Mammen & J. Nielsen, 1997. "The Existence and Asymptotic Properties of a Backfitting Projection Algorithm Under Weak Conditions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1160, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    5. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Jianqing Fan & Jiancheng Jiang, 2007. "Rejoinder on: Nonparametric inference with generalized likelihood ratio tests," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 16(3), pages 471-478, December.
    7. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    8. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. "An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
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    11. Jianqing Fan & Jiancheng Jiang, 2007. "Nonparametric inference with generalized likelihood ratio tests," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 16(3), pages 409-444, December.
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    13. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
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    16. Manuel Arapis & Jiti Gao, 2006. "Empirical Comparisons in Short-Term Interest Rate Models Using Nonparametric Methods," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 310-345.
    17. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2225-2241 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ahn, Dong-Hyun & Gao, Bin, 1999. "A Parametric Nonlinear Model of Term Structure Dynamics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 721-762.
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    Cited by:

    1. Angelos Kanas & Angelos Kotios & Panagiotis D. Zervopoulos, 2019. "Semi-parametric real exchange rates dynamics," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 643-656, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk premium; corporate spread; default; additive models; non-parametric estimation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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