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A non-parametric investigation of risk premia

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  • Peroni, Chiara

Abstract

This paper studies determinants of risk premia using a non-parametric term-structure model of the corporate spread. The model, which measures the extra return of defaultable corporate bonds on their government counterparts, involves the rate of inflation, a key macroeconomic variable that is found to explain the spread non-linearly. This study shows that non-linear methods are useful to investigate features of credit risk and that they give better results than their linear counterparts, enabling testing of affine term-structure specifications. The paper also shows how the non-linear model can be used to forecast the future course of the spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Peroni, Chiara, 2008. "A non-parametric investigation of risk premia," MPRA Paper 15010, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Apr 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
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    7. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    8. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    9. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Angelos Kanas & Angelos Kotios & Panagiotis D. Zervopoulos, 2019. "Semi-parametric real exchange rates dynamics," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 643-656, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk premium; corporate spread; default; additive models; non-parametric estimation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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