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Are Shadow Rate Models of the Treasury Yield Curve Structurally Stable?

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Abstract

We examine the structural stability of Gaussian shadow rate term structure models of Treasury yields over a period that includes the time during which the U.S. policy rate was at its effective lower bound. After a conceptual discussion of several potential sources of a structural break in the context of the shadow rate model, we document various pieces of evidence for structural instability based on predictive tests and Lagrange multiplier tests, as well as with separate estimations of the pre-ELB and post-ELB subsamples. In order to overcome the difficulties associated with the latent-factor nature of the model in testing for a structural break, we focus on objects that can be given intuitive interpretation, such as principal components, or that are constructed to be invariant to factor rotations.

Suggested Citation

  • Don H. Kim & Marcel A. Priebsch, 2020. "Are Shadow Rate Models of the Treasury Yield Curve Structurally Stable?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-061, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-61
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2020.061
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    Cited by:

    1. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow rate term structure models; Treasury yields; ELB; Structural break; Structural instability; Factor rotations; Principal components;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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