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Do macroeconomic variables matter for pricing default risk?

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  • Yan, Alice Xie
  • Shi, Jian
  • Wu, Chunchi

Abstract

Using a popular three-factor term structure model that accounts for the correlation between default and interest rates to fit corporate bond yields, we uncover missing factors in the model. The principal component analysis indicates that the model residuals of bonds across different ratings and maturities are driven by some common factors. Further analysis shows that residuals exhibit significant negative correlation with the concurrent and lagged monthly returns of S&P 500. Our results suggest that the term structure model of corporate bonds should incorporate aggregate economic factors in order to better explain the term structure of corporate bond yields.

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  • Yan, Alice Xie & Shi, Jian & Wu, Chunchi, 2008. "Do macroeconomic variables matter for pricing default risk?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 279-291.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:17:y:2008:i:2:p:279-291
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    5. Figlewski, Stephen & Frydman, Halina & Liang, Weijian, 2012. "Modeling the effect of macroeconomic factors on corporate default and credit rating transitions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-105.
    6. Lee, Hei Wai & Xie, Yan Alice & Yau, Jot, 2011. "The impact of sovereign risk on bond duration: Evidence from Asian sovereign bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 441-451, June.
    7. Asif Lakhany & Andrej Pintar & Amber Zhang, 2021. "Calibrating the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson Model by Genetic Algorithm," Papers 2108.01760, arXiv.org.
    8. Christopoulos, Andreas D. & Barratt, Joshua G. & Ilut, Daniel C., 2024. "Synthetic cap rate indices (1991-Covid era)," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    9. Amendola, Alessandra & Restaino, Marialuisa & Sensini, Luca, 2015. "An analysis of the determinants of financial distress in Italy: A competing risks approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 33-41.
    10. Zhang, Xuan & Ouyang, Ruolan & Liu, Ding & Xu, Liao, 2020. "Determinants of corporate default risk in China: The role of financial constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 87-98.
    11. Zhang, Xuan & Zhao, Yang & Yao, Xiao, 2022. "Forecasting corporate default risk in China," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1054-1070.
    12. Sun, David & Tsai, Shih-Chuan, 2013. "Diversifying Risks in Bond Portfolios: A Cross-border Approach," MPRA Paper 44767, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jan 2014.
    13. Naifar, Nader, 2011. "What explains default risk premium during the financial crisis? Evidence from Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 412-430, September.
    14. Haipeng Xing & Ying Chen, 2018. "Dependence of Structural Breaks in Rating Transition Dynamics on Economic and Market Variations," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 11, pages 1-18, February.
    15. Daniel Jubinski & Amy F. Lipton, 2012. "Equity volatility, bond yields, and yield spreads," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 480-503, May.
    16. Thakerngkiat, Narongdech & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2023. "Does fear spur default risk?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 879-899.

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