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Financial Market Functioning and Monetary Policy: Japan's Experience

Author

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  • Naohiko Baba

    (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies and Financial Markets Department (currently, Financial Markets Department), Bank of Japan (E-mail: naohiko.baba@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

This paper reviews the financial market functioning under the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and the subsequent quantitative monetary easing policy (QMEP) conducted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). First, the estimation results of the Japanese government bond yield curve using the Black-Gorovoi-Linetsky (BGL) model show that (1) the shadow interest rate has been negative since the late 1990s, turned upward in 2003, and has been on an uptrend since then, and (2) the first-hitting time until the negative shadow interest rate hits zero again under the risk-neutral probability is estimated to be about three months as of the end of February 2006. Second, under the ZIRP and QMEP, the risk premiums for Japanese banks have almost disappeared in short-term money markets such as the market for negotiable certificates of deposit, while they have remained in the credit default swap market and the stock market. This result supports the view that market participants have positively perceived the BOJ's ample liquidity provisions in containing the near- term defaults of banks caused by the liquidity shortage.

Suggested Citation

  • Naohiko Baba, 2006. "Financial Market Functioning and Monetary Policy: Japan's Experience," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 39-71, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:24:y:december:i:s1:p:39-71
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Iiboshi, Hirokuni, 2015. "Prediction of Term Structure with Potentially Misspecified Macro-Finance Models near the Zero Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 85709, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank of Japan; Term structure of interest rates; Zero lower bound; Zero interest rates; Quantitative monetary easing policy; Bank risk premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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