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Treasuries variance decomposition and the impact of monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandros Kontonikas
  • Charles Nolan
  • Zivile Zekaite
  • Michael Lamla

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of monetary policy shifts on Treasuries over the last three decades. We decompose unexpected excess returns on 2‐, 5‐, and 10‐year Treasuries in three components related to revisions in expectations (news) about future excess returns, inflation, and real interest rates. We evaluate the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks on returns and their components. Our results indicate that expansionary monetary policy shocks are associated with declining inflation expectations and higher Treasuries' returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandros Kontonikas & Charles Nolan & Zivile Zekaite & Michael Lamla, 2019. "Treasuries variance decomposition and the impact of monetary policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 1506-1519, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:24:y:2019:i:4:p:1506-1519
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.1744
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