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A Smooth Shadow-Rate Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model for Yields at the Zero Lower Bound

Author

Listed:
  • Daan Opschoor

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Michel van der Wel

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

We propose a smooth shadow-rate version of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) model to analyze the term structure of interest rates during the recent zero lower bound (ZLB) period. By relaxing the no-arbitrage restriction, our shadow-rate model becomes highly tractable with a closed-form yield curve expression. The model easily permits the implementation of readily available DNS extensions such as time-varying loadings, integration of macroeconomic variables and time-varying volatility. Using U.S. Treasury data, we provide clear evidence of a smooth tran- sition of the yields entering and leaving the ZLB state. Moreover, we show that the smooth shadow-rate DNS model dominates the baseline DNS model in terms of fitting and forecasting the yield curve, while being competitive with a shadow-rate affine term structure model.

Suggested Citation

  • Daan Opschoor & Michel van der Wel, "undated". "A Smooth Shadow-Rate Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model for Yields at the Zero Lower Bound," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-011/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220011
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, February.
    2. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    3. Leo Krippner, 2011. "Modifying Gaussian term structure models when interest rates are near the zero lower bound," CAMA Working Papers 2011-36, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Black, Fischer, 1995. "Interest Rates as Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1371-1376, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield curve; zero lower bound; shadow-rate model; Nelson-Siegel curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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