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Return predictability with endogenous growth

Author

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  • Bandi, Federico M.
  • Bretscher, Lorenzo
  • Tamoni, Andrea

Abstract

The component of the volatility of total factor productivity (TFP) that is orthogonal to the dividend price ratio is shown to have long-run predictive ability for excess market returns. This finding implies that TFP volatility should also predict real cash flows and/or real interest rates: it is found to mainly predict real cash flows through inflation. A model with endogenous growth, Epstein-Zin preferences and price rigidities reconciles both TFP volatility-driven long-run predictability and its real implications. Within the model, we justify the similar (to that of TFP volatility) predictive ability of a low-frequency notion of market volatility as well as the cross-sectional pricing of TFP volatility risk in alternative asset classes.

Suggested Citation

  • Bandi, Federico M. & Bretscher, Lorenzo & Tamoni, Andrea, 2023. "Return predictability with endogenous growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:150:y:2023:i:3:s0304405x23001642
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.103724
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    TFP volatility; Uncertainty trends; Endogenous growth; Price rigidities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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