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Sovereign credit and exchange rate risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific local currency bonds

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  • Chernov, Mikhail
  • Creal, Drew
  • Hördahl, Peter

Abstract

We study the dynamic properties of sovereign bonds in emerging markets and their associated risk premiums. We focus on the properties of credit spreads, exchange rates, and their interaction. Relying on the term structure of local currency bonds issued by Asia-Pacific sovereigns, we find that local variables are significant in the dynamics of currency and credit risk, and the components of bond risk premiums reflecting these risks. Local currency bonds dramatically improve the investment frontier.

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  • Chernov, Mikhail & Creal, Drew & Hördahl, Peter, 2023. "Sovereign credit and exchange rate risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific local currency bonds," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:140:y:2023:i:c:s0022199622001246
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103692
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging bond markets; Credit risk; Currency risk; Twin Ds; Affine model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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