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Incorporating event risk into value-at-risk

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Abstract

Event risk is the risk that a portfolio's value can be affected by large jumps in market prices. Event risk is synonymous with \"fat tails\" or \"jump risk\". Event risk is one component of \"specific risk\", defined by bank supervisors as the component of market risk not driven by market-wide shocks. Standard Value-at-Risk (VaR) models used by banks to measure market risk do not do a good job of capturing event risk. In this paper, I discuss the issues involved in incorporating event risk into VaR. To illustrate these issues, I develop a VaR model that incorporates event risk, which I call the Jump-VaR model. The Jump-VaR model uses any standard VaR model to handle \"ordinary\" price fluctuations and grafts on a simple model of price jumps. The effect is to \"fatten\" the tails of the distribution of portfolio returns that is used to estimate VaR, thus increasing VaR. I note that regulatory capital could rise or fall when jumps are added, since the increase in VaR would be offset by a decline in the regulatory capital multiplier on specific risk from 4 to 3. In an empirical application, I use the Jump-VaR model to compute VaR for two equity portfolios. I note that, in practice, special attention must be paid to the issues of correlated jumps and double-counting of jumps. As expected, the estimates of VaR increase when jumps are added. In some cases, the increases are substantial. As expected, VaR increases by more for the portfolio with more specific risk.

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  • Michael S. Gibson, 2001. "Incorporating event risk into value-at-risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2001-17
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    Cited by:

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    2. Tracey Seslen & William C. Wheaton, 2010. "Contemporaneous Loan Stress and Termination Risk in the CMBS Pool: How “Ruthless” is Default?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 225-255, June.
    3. Szego, Giorgio, 2005. "Measures of risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 5-19, May.
    4. James M. O'Brien & Pawel J. Szerszen, 2014. "An Evaluation of Bank VaR Measures for Market Risk During and Before the Financial Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Basu, Sanjay, 2011. "Comparing simulation models for market risk stress testing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 329-339, August.
    6. Marco Bee, 2007. "The asymptotic loss distribution in a fat-tailed factor model of portfolio credit risk," Department of Economics Working Papers 0701, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.

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