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Valuing risky debt: A new model combining structural information with the reduced-form approach

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  • Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo
  • Pacelli, Graziella

Abstract

A new model of credit risk is proposed in which the intensity of default is described by an additional stochastic differential equation coupled with the process of the obligor’s asset value. Such an approach allows us to incorporate structural information as well as to capture the effect of external factors (e.g. macroeconomic factors) in a both parsimonious and economically consistent way. From the practical standpoint, the proposed model offers great flexibility and allows us to obtain credit spread curves of many different shapes, including double humped term structures. Furthermore, an approximate closed-form solution is derived, which is accurate, easy to implement, and allows for an efficient calibration to realized credit spreads. Numerical experiments are presented showing that the novel approach provides a very satisfactory fitting to market data and outperforms the model developed by Madan and Unal (2000).

Suggested Citation

  • Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo & Pacelli, Graziella, 2014. "Valuing risky debt: A new model combining structural information with the reduced-form approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 261-271.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:55:y:2014:i:c:p:261-271
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2014.02.002
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    4. Hyong-Chol O. & Jong-Chol Kim & Il-Gwang Jon, 2017. "Numerical analysis for a unified 2 factor model of structural and reduced form types for corporate bonds with fixed discrete coupon," Papers 1709.06517, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2018.
    5. Qiu, Ming & Jin, Zhuo & Li, Shuanming, 2023. "Optimal risk sharing and dividend strategies under default contagion: A semi-analytical approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-23.
    6. Hainaut, Donatien, 2019. "Credit risk modelling with fractional self-excited processes," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2019027, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    7. Liu, Jing, 2018. "LLN-type approximations for large portfolio losses," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 71-77.
    8. Cantia, Catalin & Tunaru, Radu, 2017. "A factor model for joint default probabilities. Pricing of CDS, index swaps and index tranches," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 21-35.
    9. Feng-Hui Yu & Jiejun Lu & Jia-Wen Gu & Wai-Ki Ching, 2019. "Modeling Credit Risk with Hidden Markov Default Intensity," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(3), pages 1213-1229, October.

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