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China'S Official Rates And Bond Yields

Author

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  • Fan, Longzhen

    (School of Management, Fudan University)

  • Johansson, Anders C.

    (China Economic Research Center)

Abstract

Recent research shows that bond yields are influenced by monetary policy decisions. To learn how this works in an interest rate market that differs significantly from that of the U.S. and Europe, we model Chinese bond yields using the one-year deposit rate as a state variable. We also add the difference between the one-year interest rate and the one-year deposit rate as a factor. The model is developed in an affine framework and closed-form solutions are obtained. It is tested empirically and the results show that the new model characterizes the changing shape of the yield curve well. Incorporating the benchmark rate into the model thus helps us to match Chinese bond yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "China'S Official Rates And Bond Yields," Working Paper Series 2009-3, Stockholm School of Economics, China Economic Research Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hacerc:2009-003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin, 2013. "China's Monetary Policy Communication: Money Markets not only Listen, They also Understand," Working Papers 022013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. repec:wyi:journl:002118 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Dempster, M.A.H. & Tang, Ke, 2011. "Estimating exponential affine models with correlated measurement errors: Applications to fixed income and commodities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 639-652, March.
    4. Fan, Longzhen & Tian, Shu & Zhang, Chu, 2012. "Why are excess returns on China’s Treasury bonds so predictable? The role of the monetary system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 239-248.
    5. Sun, Rongrong, 2020. "Monetary policy announcements and market interest rates’ response: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Liu, Zhuoshi & Spencer, Peter, 2013. "Modelling sovereign credit spreads with international macro-factors: The case of Brazil 1998–2009," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 241-256.
    7. Rongrong Sun, 2021. "Requiem for the interest rate controls in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 139-160, May.
    8. Löchel, H. & Packham, N. & Walisch, F., 2016. "Determinants of the onshore and offshore Chinese government yield curves," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 77-93.
    9. Feng, Xunan & Johansson, Anders C., 2018. "Firm Ownership, Political Participation, and Access to Finance through Public Bond Offerings in China," Stockholm School of Economics Asia Working Paper Series 2018-50, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm China Economic Research Institute.
    10. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "What Moves Bond Yields In China?," Working Paper Series 2009-9, Stockholm School of Economics, China Economic Research Center.
    11. Hong, Yongmiao & Lin, Hai & Wang, Shouyang, 2010. "Modeling the dynamics of Chinese spot interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1047-1061, May.
    12. Loechel, Horst & Packham, Natalie & Walisch, Fabian, 2013. "Determinants of the onshore and offshore Chinese Government yield curves," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 202, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; deposit rate; bond yields; jump process; affine model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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