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Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey

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  • Kaya, Huseyin

Abstract

In this study we investigate the yield curve forecasting performance of Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model (DNS), affine term structure VAR model (ATSM VAR) and principal component model (PC) in Turkey. We also investigate the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the yield curve. We have reached numbers of important results: 1—Macroeconomic variables are very useful in forecasting the yield curve. 2—The forecasting performances of the models depend on the period under review. 3—Considering the structural break which associates with change in monetary policy leads models to produce better forecasts than the random walk. 4—The role of exchange rate should not be ruled out in forecasting the yield curve in an emerging market like Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:1-7
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.03.013
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    Cited by:

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    3. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Maia, João Pedro Neves, 2023. "Who speaks louder, financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Oguzhan Cepni & Ibrahim Ethem Guney & Doruk Kucuksarac & M. Hasan Yilmaz, 2021. "Do local and global factors impact the emerging markets' sovereign yield curves? Evidence from a data‐rich environment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1214-1229, November.
    5. Albert K. Tsui & Junxiang Wu & Zhaoyong Zhang & Zhongxi Zheng, 2023. "Forecasting term structure of the Japanese bond yields in the presence of a liquidity trap," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1205-1227, August.
    6. Erhard RESCHENHOFER & Thomas STARK, 2019. "Forecasting the Yield Curve with Dynamic Factors," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 101-113, March.
    7. Luo, Deqing & Pang, Tao & Xu, Jiawen, 2021. "Forecasting U.S. Yield Curve Using the Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model with Random Level Shift Parameters," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 340-350.
    8. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2023. "Sovereign yield curves and the COVID-19 in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield curve; Forecasting; Macroeconomic variables; DNS; ATSM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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