IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oxf/wpaper/paper-805.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Social Media, News Media and the Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Andre Veiga
  • Ansgar Walther

Abstract

We contrast the impact of traditional news media and social media coverage on stock market volatility and trading volume. We develop a theoretical model of asset pricing and information processing, which allows for both rational traders and a variety of commonly studied behavioral biases. The model yields several novel and testable predictions about the impact of news and social media on asset prices. We then test the model’s theoretical predictions using a unique dataset which measures coverage of individual stocks in social and news media using a broad spectrum of print and online sources. Stocks with high social media coverage in one month experience high idiosyncratic volatility of returns and trading volume in the following month. Conversely, stocks with high news media coverage experience low volatility and low trading volume in the following month. These effects are statistically and economically significant and robust to controlling for stock and time fixed effects, as well as time-varying stock characteristics. The empirical evidence on news media is consistent with a market in which some traders are overconfident when interpreting new information. The evidence on social media is consistent with Tetlock (2011)’s “stale news†hypothesis (investors treat repeated information on social networks as though it were new) and with a model where investors’ perceptions are subject to random sentiment shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Andre Veiga & Ansgar Walther, 2016. "Social Media, News Media and the Stock Market," Economics Series Working Papers Paper-805, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:paper-805
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:6eaf9f87-9bfc-4cab-b502-befa1bcc76e3
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    2. Hawkins, Scott A & Hoch, Stephen J, 1992. "Low-Involvement Learning: Memory without Evaluation," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 19(2), pages 212-225, September.
    3. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
    4. Péter Kondor, 2012. "The More We Know about the Fundamental, the Less We Agree on the Price," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 1175-1207.
    5. Tkac, Paula A., 1999. "A Trading Volume Benchmark: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 89-114, March.
    6. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    7. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2015. "Editor's Choice The Sum of All FEARS Investor Sentiment and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 1-32.
    8. Barberis, Nicholas & Thaler, Richard, 2003. "A survey of behavioral finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1053-1128, Elsevier.
    9. Sun, Licheng & Najand, Mohammad & Shen, Jiancheng, 2016. "Stock return predictability and investor sentiment: A high-frequency perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 147-164.
    10. He, Hua & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 919-972.
    11. Kyle, Albert S & Wang, F Albert, 1997. "Speculation Duopoly with Agreement to Disagree: Can Overconfidence Survive the Market Test?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2073-2090, December.
    12. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    13. Michaelides, Alexander & Milidonis, Andreas & Nishiotis, George P., 2019. "Private information in currency markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 643-665.
    14. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February.
    15. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    16. Kacperczyk, Marcin & Nosal, Jaromir & Stevens, Luminita, 2019. "Investor sophistication and capital income inequality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 18-31.
    17. Paul C. Tetlock, 2011. "All the News That's Fit to Reprint: Do Investors React to Stale Information?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(5), pages 1481-1512.
    18. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K, 1992. "Stock Price Dynamics and Firm Size: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1985-1997, December.
    19. Brian J. Bushee & John E. Core & Wayne Guay & Sophia J.W. Hamm, 2010. "The Role of the Business Press as an Information Intermediary," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 1-19, March.
    20. Peter M. DeMarzo & Dimitri Vayanos & Jeffrey Zwiebel, 2003. "Persuasion Bias, Social Influence, and Unidimensional Opinions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 909-968.
    21. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    22. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    23. Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 2000. "Trading Volume: Definitions, Data Analysis, and Implications of Portfolio Theory," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 257-300.
    24. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    25. Joshua D. Coval & Tyler Shumway, 2001. "Is Sound Just Noise?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1887-1910, October.
    26. Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "Investor attention, overconfidence and category learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 563-602, June.
    27. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
    28. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    29. Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2011. "Ideological Segregation Online and Offline," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1799-1839.
    30. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    31. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
    32. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    33. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1259-1294 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Patrick J. Dennis & Deon Strickland, 2002. "Who Blinks in Volatile Markets, Individuals or Institutions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1923-1949, October.
    35. Lily Fang & Joel Peress, 2009. "Media Coverage and the Cross‐section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2023-2052, October.
    36. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    37. Duffee, Gregory R., 1995. "Stock returns and volatility A firm-level analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 399-420, March.
    38. Michaelides, Alexander & Milidonis, Andreas & Nishiotis, George P. & Papakyriakou, Panayiotis, 2015. "The adverse effects of systematic leakage ahead of official sovereign debt rating announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 526-547.
    39. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1887-1934 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Matthew Rabin & Joel L. Schrag, 1999. "First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 37-82.
    41. Hailiang Chen & Prabuddha De & Yu (Jeffrey) Hu & Byoung-Hyoun Hwang, 2014. "Wisdom of Crowds: The Value of Stock Opinions Transmitted Through Social Media," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1367-1403.
    42. Gur Huberman & Tomer Regev, 2001. "Contagious Speculation and a Cure for Cancer: A Nonevent that Made Stock Prices Soar," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 387-396, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Yilan & Huang, Yi, 2022. "Does climate change news inform flood insurance take?," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322178, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Tanaka, Yoshitaka & Managi, Shunsuke, 2023. "Attention-Grabbing ESG," MPRA Paper 116786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gbenga Ibikunle & Vito Mollica & Qiao Sun, 2021. "Jumps in foreign exchange spot rates and the informational efficiency of currency forwards," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1201-1219, August.
    4. Xiaoman, Jin & Qing, Li & Jun, Wang & Jingmei, Zhao, 2023. "Voice or noise? Repetitive information and stock performance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Haque, Md Ziaul & Qian, Aimin & Hoque, Md Rakibul & Lucky, Suraiea Akter, 2022. "A unified framework for exploring the determinants of online social networks (OSNs) on institutional investors’ capital market investment decision," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Foglia, Matteo & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Angelini, Eliana, 2021. "Feverish sentiment and global equity markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1088-1108.
    7. Qingchong Chen & Xiong Xiong & Ya Gao, 2021. "Is information really efficient for the market? Evidence of confirmatory bias in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(5), pages 5965-5997, December.
    8. Tumasjan, Andranik & Braun, Reiner & Stolz, Barbara, 2021. "Twitter sentiment as a weak signal in venture capital financing," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 36(2).
    9. Xiaohong Shen & Gaoshan Wang & Yue Wang & Alfred Peris, 2021. "The Influence of Research Reports on Stock Returns: The Mediating Effect of Machine-Learning-Based Investor Sentiment," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-14, December.
    10. Thomas Boulton & Bill B. Francis & Thomas Shohfi & Daqi Xin, 2021. "Investor awareness or information asymmetry? Wikipedia and IPO underpricing," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 535-561, August.
    11. Scoles, Brooke & Nicodemo, Catia, 2022. "Doctors’ attitudes toward specific medical conditions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 182-199.
    12. Dulani Jayasuriya & Ben O’Neill, 2021. "Social Media’s Impact on the Global Mergers and Acquisitions Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-41, April.
    13. Jie Ren & Hang Dong & Balaji Padmanabhan & Jeffrey V. Nickerson, 2021. "How does social media sentiment impact mass media sentiment? A study of news in the financial markets," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 72(9), pages 1183-1197, September.
    14. Alex Frino & Caihong Xu & Z. Ivy Zhou, 2022. "Are option traders more informed than Twitter users? A PVAR analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1755-1771, September.
    15. Angelico, Cristina & Marcucci, Juri & Miccoli, Marcello & Quarta, Filippo, 2022. "Can we measure inflation expectations using Twitter?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 259-277.
    16. Alomari, Mohammad & Al Rababa’a, Abdel Razzaq & El-Nader, Ghaith & Alkhataybeh, Ahmad & Ur Rehman, Mobeen, 2021. "Examining the effects of news and media sentiments on volatility and correlation: Evidence from the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 280-297.
    17. Abdi, Farshid & Kormanyos, Emily & Pelizzon, Loriana & Getmansky, Mila & Simon, Zorka, 2021. "Market impact of government communication: The case of presidential tweets," SAFE Working Paper Series 314, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2021.
    18. Justina Deveikyte & Helyette Geman & Carlo Piccari & Alessandro Provetti, 2020. "A Sentiment Analysis Approach to the Prediction of Market Volatility," Papers 2012.05906, arXiv.org.
    19. Ndubuisi, Gideon & Urom, Christian, 2023. "Dependence and risk spillovers among clean cryptocurrencies prices and media environmental attention," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    20. Shuyu Zhang & Xuanyu Zhou & Huifeng Pan & Junyi Jia, 2019. "Cryptocurrency, confirmatory bias and news readability – evidence from the largest Chinese cryptocurrency exchange," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1445-1468, March.
    21. Yongan Xu & Jianqiong Wang & Zhonglu Chen & Chao Liang, 2023. "Sentiment indices and stock returns: Evidence from China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1063-1080, January.
    22. Tripathi, Abhinava & Pandey, Ashish, 2021. "Information dissemination across global markets during the spread of COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 103-115.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    2. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
    3. Hillert, Alexander & Jacobs, Heiko & Müller, Sebastian, 2018. "Journalist disagreement," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 57-76.
    4. Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "Investor attention, overconfidence and category learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 563-602, June.
    5. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    6. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hwang, Soosung & Cho, Youngha & Noh, Sanha, 2022. "The cost of overconfidence in public information," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Ahmad, Khurshid & Han, JingGuang & Hutson, Elaine & Kearney, Colm & Liu, Sha, 2016. "Media-expressed negative tone and firm-level stock returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 152-172.
    9. Prajwal Eachempati & Praveen Ranjan Srivastava, 2021. "Accounting for unadjusted news sentiment for asset pricing," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(3), pages 383-422, May.
    10. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    11. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Wu, Chen-Hui & Lin, Chan-Jane, 2017. "The impact of media coverage on investor trading behavior and stock returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 151-172.
    13. Lin, Mei-Chen & Wu, Chu-Hua & Chiang, Ming-Ti, 2014. "Investor attention and information diffusion from analyst coverage," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 235-246.
    14. Huang, Tzu-Lun, 2018. "The puzzling media effect in the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 129-146.
    15. Wen-I Chuang & Bong-Soo Lee & Kai-Li Wang, 2014. "US and Domestic Market Gains and Asian Investors’ Overconfident Trading Behavior," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 113-148, March.
    16. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    17. Georgios Bampinas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Christina Rouska, 2019. "Volatility persistence and asymmetry under the microscope: the role of information demand for gold and oil," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 180-197, February.
    18. Pouget, Sébastien & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2012. "A Mind is a Terrible Thing to Change: Confirmation Bias in Financial Markets," TSE Working Papers 12-306, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Aug 2016.
    19. Goldman, Eitan & Gupta, Nandini & Israelsen, Ryan, 2024. "Political polarization in financial news," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    20. Tom Marty & Bruce Vanstone & Tobias Hahn, 2020. "News media analytics in finance: a survey," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1385-1434, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social media; news media; behavioral finance; volatility; trading volume;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:paper-805. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anne Pouliquen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.