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Revisiting the predictability of bond risk premia

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  • Daniel L. Thornton
  • Giorgio Valente

Abstract

This paper investigates the source of predictability of bond risk premia by means of long-term forward interest rates. We show that the predictive ability of forward rates could be due to the high serial correlation and cross-correlation of bond prices. We show that the predictive ability of forward rates could be due to the high serial correlation and cross-correlation of bond prices. After a simple reparametrization of models used to predict spot rates or excess returns, we find that forward rates exhibit much less predictive power than previously recorded. Furthermore, our economic value analysis indicates that there are no economic gains to mean-variance investors who use the predictions of these models in a stylized dynamic asset allocation strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Revisiting the predictability of bond risk premia," Working Papers 2009-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2009-009
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2009.009
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    Keywords

    Bonds; bond markets; Risk;
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