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Global bond risk premiums

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  • Rebecca Hellerstein

Abstract

This paper examines time-varying measures of term premiums across ten developed economies. It shows that a single factor accounts for most of the variation in expected excess returns over time, across the maturity spectrum, and across countries. I construct a global return forecasting factor that is a GDP-weighted average of each country?s local return forecasting factor and show that it has information not spanned by the traditional level, slope, curvature factors of the term structure, or by the local return forecasting factors. Including the global forecasting factor in the model produces estimates of spillover effects that are consistent with our conceptual understanding of these flows, both in direction and magnitude. These effects are illustrated for three episodes: the period following the Russian default in 1998, the bond conundrum period from mid-2004 to mid-2006, and the period since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Rebecca Hellerstein, 2011. "Global bond risk premiums," Staff Reports 499, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:499
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo Vergara & Elías Albagli, 2015. "Tasas de Interés de Largo Plazo en Economías Desarrolladas: Tendencias Recientes e Implicancias de Política Monetaria en Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 52, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Shang-Jin Wei, 2018. "Managing Financial Globalization: Insights from the Recent Literature," Working Papers id:12586, eSocialSciences.
    3. Riccardo Rebonato, 2015. "Return-Predicting Factors For Us Treasuries: On The Similarity Of "Tents" And "Bats"," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(04), pages 1-14.
    4. Han, Xuehui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2018. "International transmissions of monetary shocks: Between a trilemma and a dilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 205-219.
    5. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    6. Disyatat, Piti & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 115-136.
    7. Wei, Shang-Jin & Han, Xuehui, 2016. "International Transmissions of Monetary Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 11070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2020. "Harry Johnson’s “Case for Flexible Exchange Rates†– 50 Years Later," CEPR Discussion Papers 14488, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Maurice Obstfeld, 2020. "Harry Johnson's “Case for flexible exchange rates”—50 years later," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 86-113, September.
    10. Wei, Shang-Jin, 2018. "Managing Financial Globalization: A Guide for Developing Countries Based on the Recent Literature," ADBI Working Papers 804, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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    Keywords

    Bonds; Risk; Forecasting;
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