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Exit dynamics of start-up firms: Structural estimation using indirect inference

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  • Golombek, Rolf
  • Raknerud, Arvid

Abstract

We estimate by means of indirect inference a structural economic model where firms’ exit and investment decisions are the solution to a discrete–continuous stochastic dynamic programming problem. Our method solves the main difficulty of simulation-based inference in structural discrete–continuous choice models, namely that the simulated trajectories are discontinuous functions of the structural parameters. Estimating the model on all start-up firms in the Norwegian manufacturing sector, we find that if the expected value of continuing production is persistently low relative to the expected value of exit, the firm has a high probability to exit.

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  • Golombek, Rolf & Raknerud, Arvid, 2018. "Exit dynamics of start-up firms: Structural estimation using indirect inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 204-225.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:205:y:2018:i:1:p:204-225
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.03.011
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    Cited by:

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    2. Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Demographics and the decline in firm entry: Lessons from a life-cycle model," Discussion Papers 15/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Zhang, Dengjun & Sogn-Grundvåg, Geir, 2022. "Credit constraints and the severity of COVID-19 impact: Empirical evidence from enterprise surveys," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 337-349.
    4. Miyakawa, Daisuke & Oikawa, Koki & Ueda, Kozo, 2021. "Firm Exit during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Thomas von Brasch & Arvid Raknerud & Diana-Cristina Iancu, 2018. "Productivity growth, firm turnover and new varieties," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-11, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    6. Thomas von Brasch & Arvid Raknerud, 2022. "The impact of new varieties on aggregate productivity growth," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(3), pages 646-676, July.
    7. MIYAKAWA Daisuke & OIKAWA Koki & UEDA Kozo, 2022. "Misallocation under the Shadow of Death," Discussion papers 22014, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indirect inference; Auxiliary model; Discrete-continuous choice; Markovian decision model; Investment; Cost of capital adjustment; Firm exit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory

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