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Michael Dominic Bauer

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Quel est l’efficacité de l’assouplissement quantitatif ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-05-01 17:19:00

Working papers

  1. Michael D. Bauer & Daniel Huber & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Ole Wilms, 2023. "Where Is the Carbon Premium? Global Performance of Green and Brown Stocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 10246, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," Working Paper Series 2023-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana & Elisa Ossola, 2023. "Green risk in Europe," Working Papers 526, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    3. Loyson, Philipe & Luijendijk, Rianne & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "The pricing of climate transition risk in Europe's equity market," CEPR Discussion Papers 18289, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Martijn A. Boermans & Maurice Bun & Yasmine van der Straten, 2024. "Funding the Fittest? Pricing of Climate Transition Risk in the Corporate Bond Market," Working Papers 797, DNB.
    5. Beyer, Victor & Bauckloh, Michael Tobias, 2024. "Non-standard errors in carbon premia," CFR Working Papers 24-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    6. Pham, Linh & Kamal, Javed Bin, 2024. "Blessings or curse: How do media climate change concerns affect commodity tail risk spillovers?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    7. Zhang, Dayong & Wu, Yalin & Ji, Qiang & Guo, Kun & Lucey, Brian, 2024. "Climate impacts on the loan quality of Chinese regional commercial banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Long, Huaigang & Chiah, Mardy & Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2024. "ESG investing in good and bad times: An international study," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Christoph Hambel & Holger Kraft & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2024. "Asset Diversification Versus Climate Action," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1323-1355, August.
    10. Zhang, Li & Liang, Chao & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Wang, Lu & Damette, Olivier, 2024. "Measuring the impact of climate risk on renewable energy stock volatility: A case study of G20 economies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 168-184.
    11. Boubaker, Sabri & Choudhury, Tonmoy & Hasan, Fakhrul & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2024. "Firm carbon risk exposure, stock returns, and dividend payment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 248-276.
    12. Talan B. İşcan & Benjamin Dennis, 2024. "A New Measure of Climate Transition Risk Based on Distance to a Global Emission Factor Frontier," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-017, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Zhikai Zhang & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Qunwei Wang, 2024. "The predictability of carbon futures volatility: New evidence from the spillovers of fossil energy futures returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 557-584, April.
    14. Philippe Loyson & Rianne Luijendijk & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2023. "The pricing of climate transition risk in Europe’s equity market," Working Papers 788, DNB.
    15. Shen, Yiran & Sun, Xiaolei & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2023. "Climate events matter in the global natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    16. Zanin, Luca, 2023. "A flexible estimation of sectoral portfolio exposure to climate transition risks in the European stock market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    17. Dirk Broeders & Marleen de Jonge & David Rijsbergen, 2024. "The European Carbon Bond Premium," Working Papers 798, DNB.

  2. Michael D. Bauer & Eric A. Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," CESifo Working Paper Series 10739, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, Lion & Rapp, Marc Steffen & Zahner, Johannes, 2024. "Central banks sowing the seeds for a green financial sector? NGFS membership and market reactions," IMFS Working Paper Series 198, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    2. Stefano Carattini & Giseong Kim & Givi Melkadze & Aude Pommeret, 2023. "Carbon Taxes and Tariffs, Financial Frictions, and International Spillovers," CESifo Working Paper Series 10851, CESifo.

  3. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin E. Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2022. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10182, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Eric Fischer & Rebecca McCaughrin & Saketh Prazad & Mark Vandergon, 2023. "Fed Transparency and Policy Expectation Errors: A Text Analysis Approach," Staff Reports 1081, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Vincenzo Cuciniello, 2024. "Market perceptions, monetary policy, and credibility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1449, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Hack, Lukas & Istrefi, Klodiana & Meier, Matthias, 2023. "Identification of systematic monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2851, European Central Bank.
    4. Yuliya Rychalovska & Sergey Slobodyan & Rafael Wouters, 2023. "Professional Survey Forecasts and Expectations in DSGE Models," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp766, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    5. Macaulay, Alistair & Song, Wenting, 2022. "Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media," MPRA Paper 113620, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Zhang, Dongyang & He, Yurun & Lu, Meiting, 2024. "Is energy firms' investment behavior more sensitive on corporate perception of monetary policy?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Zeng, Wendy & Johnson, William & Davis, James D., 2024. "United States and Global Macroeconomic Projections to 2033," Economic Information Bulletin 342469, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    8. Busetto, Filippo, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 1058, Bank of England.
    9. Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Zhang, Xin, 2022. "Central Bank Mandates and Monetary Policy Stances: through the Lens of Federal Reserve Speeches," Working Paper Series 417, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Sep 2024.

  4. Martin C. Hänsel & Michael D. Bauer & Moritz A. Drupp & Gernot Wagner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2022. "Climate Policy Curves: Linking Policy Choices to Climate Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 10113, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," Working Paper Series 2023-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  5. Bauer, Michael & Huber, Daniel & Rudebusch, Glenn & Wilms, Ole, 2022. "Where is the carbon premium? Global performance of green and brown stocks," Other publications TiSEM 6b117156-316d-440a-9fa5-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," Working Paper Series 2023-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana & Elisa Ossola, 2023. "Green risk in Europe," Working Papers 526, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    3. Loyson, Philipe & Luijendijk, Rianne & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "The pricing of climate transition risk in Europe's equity market," CEPR Discussion Papers 18289, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Martijn A. Boermans & Maurice Bun & Yasmine van der Straten, 2024. "Funding the Fittest? Pricing of Climate Transition Risk in the Corporate Bond Market," Working Papers 797, DNB.
    5. Beyer, Victor & Bauckloh, Michael Tobias, 2024. "Non-standard errors in carbon premia," CFR Working Papers 24-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    6. Pham, Linh & Kamal, Javed Bin, 2024. "Blessings or curse: How do media climate change concerns affect commodity tail risk spillovers?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    7. Zhang, Dayong & Wu, Yalin & Ji, Qiang & Guo, Kun & Lucey, Brian, 2024. "Climate impacts on the loan quality of Chinese regional commercial banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Long, Huaigang & Chiah, Mardy & Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2024. "ESG investing in good and bad times: An international study," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Christoph Hambel & Holger Kraft & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2024. "Asset Diversification Versus Climate Action," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1323-1355, August.
    10. Zhang, Li & Liang, Chao & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Wang, Lu & Damette, Olivier, 2024. "Measuring the impact of climate risk on renewable energy stock volatility: A case study of G20 economies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 168-184.
    11. Boubaker, Sabri & Choudhury, Tonmoy & Hasan, Fakhrul & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2024. "Firm carbon risk exposure, stock returns, and dividend payment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 248-276.
    12. Talan B. İşcan & Benjamin Dennis, 2024. "A New Measure of Climate Transition Risk Based on Distance to a Global Emission Factor Frontier," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-017, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Zhikai Zhang & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Qunwei Wang, 2024. "The predictability of carbon futures volatility: New evidence from the spillovers of fossil energy futures returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 557-584, April.
    14. Philippe Loyson & Rianne Luijendijk & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2023. "The pricing of climate transition risk in Europe’s equity market," Working Papers 788, DNB.
    15. Shen, Yiran & Sun, Xiaolei & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2023. "Climate events matter in the global natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    16. Zanin, Luca, 2023. "A flexible estimation of sectoral portfolio exposure to climate transition risks in the European stock market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    17. Dirk Broeders & Marleen de Jonge & David Rijsbergen, 2024. "The European Carbon Bond Premium," Working Papers 798, DNB.

  6. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2022. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," CESifo Working Paper Series 9642, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan J Adams & Philip Barrett, 2023. "Identifying News Shocks from Forecasts," Working Papers 001010, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
    2. Ferroni, Filippo & Fisher, Jonas D.M. & Melosi, Leonardo, 2024. "Unusual shocks in our usual models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Endong Wang, 2024. "Structural counterfactual analysis in macroeconomics: theory and inference," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org.
    4. Willem Thorbecke, 2024. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Economic Performance in Malaysia: A Sectoral Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-19, March.
    5. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2023. "An event-driven bank stress indicator: The case of US regional banks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    6. Christian K. Wolf & Alisdair McKay, 2022. "What Can Time-Series Regressions Tell Us About Policy Counterfactuals?," NBER Working Papers 30358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jarociński, Marek, 2024. "Estimating the Fed’s unconventional policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    8. Van Der Ploeg, Frederick & Willems, Tim, 2023. "Battle of the markups: conflict inflation and the aspirational channel of monetary policy transmission," CEPR Discussion Papers 18436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Inessa BENCHORA & Aurélien LEROY & Louis RAFFESTIN, 2023. "Is Monetary Policy Transmission Green?," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2023-08, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    10. Amina Enkhbold, 2024. "Monetary Policy Transmission Through Shadow and Traditional Banks," Staff Working Papers 24-8, Bank of Canada.
    11. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2023. "Can we use high-frequency yield data to better understand the effects of monetary policy and its communication? Yes and no!," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2023-03 Classification-E4, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    12. Andrea Ajello & Diego Silva & Travis Adams & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Gökhan Ider & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Frederik Kurcz & Ben Schumann, 2024. "Friend, Not Foe - Energy Prices and European Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2089, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Key, Tomas & Lenney, Jamie, 2024. "The impact of aggregate fluctuations across the UK income distribution," Bank of England working papers 1083, Bank of England.
    15. Ider, Gökhan & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Kurcz, Frederik & Schumann, Ben, 2023. "The Energy-Price Channel of (European) Monetary Policy," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277710, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Haroon Mumtaz & Jumana Saleheen & Roxane Spitznagel, 2023. "Keep it Simple: Central Bank Communication and Asset Prices," Working Papers 960, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    17. Santiago Camara & Sebastian Ramirez Venegas, 2022. "The Transmission of US Monetary Policy Shocks: The Role of Investment & Financial Heterogeneity," Papers 2209.11150, arXiv.org.
    18. Tom D. Holden, 2024. "Robust Real Rate Rules," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1551, September.
    19. Brent Bundick & Trenton Herriford & Andrew Lee Smith, 2022. "The Term Structure of Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Research Working Paper RWP 2022-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    20. Laumer, Sebastian & Violaris, Andreas-Entony, 2024. "Unconventional monetary policy and policy foresight," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    21. Qi Li & Xu Zhang, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality in Housing Markets: A Study of 140 US Metropolitan Areas," Staff Working Papers 23-62, Bank of Canada.
    22. Jonathan Adams & Min Fang & Zheng Liu & Yajie Wang, 2024. "The Rise of AI Pricing: Trends, Driving Forces, and Implications for Firm Performance," Working Paper Series 2024-33, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    23. William D. Larson & Andrew B. Martinez, 2024. "House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks," Working Papers 2024-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    24. Pablo Aguilar Perez, 2024. "Global Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: New Insights from the Remittance Channel," EconomiX Working Papers 2024-27, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    25. Laumer, Sebastian & Morais Santos, Italo, 2024. "The impact of monetary policy shocks — Do not rule out central bank information effects or economic news," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    26. Carlos Cañon & Eddie Gerba & Alberto Pambira & Evarist Stoja, 2023. "An Unconventional FX Tail Risk Story," CESifo Working Paper Series 10629, CESifo.
    27. Santiago Camara, 2023. "International Spillovers of ECB Interest Rates: Monetary Policy & Information Effects," Papers 2306.04562, arXiv.org.
    28. Tomas Key & Jamie Lenney, 2024. "The Impact of Aggregate Fluctuations Across the UK Income Distribution," Discussion Papers 2430, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    29. Chen, Kaiji & Higgins, Patrick & Zha, Tao, 2024. "Constructing quarterly Chinese time series usable for macroeconomic analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    30. Alex Hsu & Indrajit Mitra & Linghang Zeng, 2023. "The Profitability Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    31. Goodhead, Robert, 2024. "The economic impact of yield curve compression: Evidence from euro area forward guidance and unconventional monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    32. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit, 2024. "The Slope of the Phillips Curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-043, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    33. Sangyup Choi & Tim Willems & Seung Yong Yoo, 2023. "Revisiting the Monetary Transmission Mechanism through an Industry-Level Differential Approach," Working papers 2023rwp-215, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    34. Lukas Berend & Jan Pruser, 2024. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy via Common Cycles in the Euro Area," Papers 2410.05741, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    35. Holtemöller, Oliver & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Kwak, Boreum, 2024. "Is there an information channel of monetary policy?," IWH Discussion Papers 17/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2024.
    36. Arbatli-Saxegaard, Elif & Furceri, Davide & González, Pablo & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Peiris, Shanaka, 2024. "Spillovers from US Monetary Policy: Role of Policy Drivers and Cyclical Conditions," CEPR Discussion Papers 18768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    37. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Mazelis, Falk & Rast, Sebastian, 2023. "Bank and non-bank balance sheet responses to monetary policy shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    38. Travis Adams & Andrea Ajello & Diego Silva & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment," Papers 2305.16164, arXiv.org.
    39. Walz, Stefan, 2024. "How does the fed affect corporate credit costs? Default risk, creditor segmentation and the post-FOMC drift," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    40. Cañon, Carlos & Gerba, Eddie & Pambira, Alberto & Stoja, Evarist, 2023. "An unconventional FX tail risk story," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120052, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    41. Ariadne Checo & Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Mr. Damiano Sandri, 2024. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2024/093, International Monetary Fund.
    42. Mr. Pragyan Deb & Julia Estefania-Flores & Melih Firat & Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari, 2023. "Monetary Policy Transmission Heterogeneity: Cross-Country Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2023/204, International Monetary Fund.
    43. Inoue, Atsushi & Jordà , Òscar & Kuersteiner, Guido, 2024. "Inference for Local Projections," CEPR Discussion Papers 19379, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    44. Davide Brignone & Alessandro Franconi & Marco Mazzali, 2023. "Robust Impulse Responses using External Instruments: the Role of Information," Papers 2307.06145, arXiv.org.
    45. Eric T. Swanson, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1152-1184, September.
    46. Ehrmann, Michael & Gnan, Phillipp & Rieder, Kilian, 2023. "Central Bank Communication by ??? The Economics of Public Policy Leaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 18152, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    47. Riccardo Degasperi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2024. "US monetary policy spillovers to the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 891, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    48. Dimitris Christopoulos & Peter McAdam & Elias Tzavalis, 2023. "Threshold Endogeneity in Threshold VARs: An Application to Monetary State Dependence," Research Working Paper RWP 23-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    49. Taeyoung Doh & JiHyung Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2024. "Heterogeneity in Household Inflation Expectations: Policy Implications," Research Working Paper RWP 24-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    50. Lu, Dong & Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi, 2023. "China's monetary policy surprises and corporate real investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    51. Bruno Albuquerque & Martin Iseringhausen & Frederic Opitz, 2024. "The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2024/023, International Monetary Fund.
    52. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Fasianos, Apostolos, 2023. "Modelling monetary policy’s impact on labour markets under Covid-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    53. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2024. "US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes," Working Paper Series 2919, European Central Bank.
    54. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Min Wei, 2024. "Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2024-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    55. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.
    56. Bulat Gafarov & Madina Karamysheva & Andrey Polbin & Anton Skrobotov, 2024. "Wild inference for wild SVARs with application to heteroscedasticity-based IV," Papers 2407.03265, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.

  7. Michael D. Bauer & Mikhail Chernov, 2021. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," CESifo Working Paper Series 9150, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2022. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 87-155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Macaulay, Alistair & Song, Wenting, 2022. "Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media," MPRA Paper 113620, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Caballero, Ricardo & Simsek, Alp, 2022. "Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Frédéric Vrins & Linqi Wang, 2023. "Asymmetric short-rate model without lower bound," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 279-295, February.
    5. Busetto, Filippo, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 1058, Bank of England.
    6. Guljanov, Gaygysyz & Mutschler, Willi & Trede, Mark, 2022. "Pruned Skewed Kalman Filter and Smoother: With Application to the Yield Curve," Dynare Working Papers 78, CEPREMAP.
    7. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2024. "US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes," Working Paper Series 2919, European Central Bank.

  8. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2020-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Jinchi Dong & Richard S. J. Tol & Fangzhi Wang, 2024. "Towards a representative social cost of carbon," Papers 2404.04989, arXiv.org.
    2. Matteo Richiardi & J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos & Jaume Masoliver & Miquel Montero & Josep Perellò, 2017. "Discounting the distant future: What do historical bond prices imply about the long term discount rate?," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 156, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    3. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Mussche, Paul L., 2024. "International evidence on extending sovereign debt maturities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Amer Ahmed & Esther Bartl, 2024. "Loan Choice and Indebtedness of Bangladeshi Return Migrants," Working Paper Series 0824, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    5. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Pointner, Wolfgang & van den End, Jan Willem, 2022. "The effects of climate change on the natural rate of interest: a critical survey," Working Paper Series 2744, European Central Bank.

  9. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2020. "An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”," NBER Working Papers 27013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Foerster & Troy Davig, 2017. "Communicating Monetary Policy Rules," 2017 Meeting Papers 1133, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Keweloh, Sascha A. & Hetzenecker, Stephan & Seepe, Andre, 2023. "Monetary policy and information shocks in a block-recursive SVAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Inessa BENCHORA & Aurélien LEROY & Louis RAFFESTIN, 2023. "Is Monetary Policy Transmission Green?," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2023-08, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    4. Sinem Kandemir & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Not all ECB meetings are created equal," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202312, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Martin Baumgärtner & Jens Klose, 2021. "Why central banks announcing liquidity injections is more effective than forward guidance," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 236-256, August.
    7. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Kara, Ali Hakan & Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2020. "Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior," CFS Working Paper Series 642, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    8. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Benjamin Gardner & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2021. "Words Speak as Loudly as Actions: Central Bank Communication and the Response of Equity Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Jung, Alexander, 2023. "US monetary policy spillovers to European banks," Working Paper Series 2876, European Central Bank.
    11. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2020. "Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf & Sigurd A. M. Steffensen, 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," BIS Working Papers 996, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer, , 2021. "Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world," Occasional Paper Series 274, European Central Bank.
    14. Di Giovanni, Julian & Rogers, John, 2022. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy on Foreign Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 17682, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Braun, Robin & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Saha, Tuli, 2023. "Measuring Monetary Policy in the UK: the UK Monetary Policy Event-Study Database," CEPR Discussion Papers 18595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Corneli, Flavia & Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2023. "Macroeconomic news, the financial cycle and the commodity cycle: The Chinese footprint," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    17. Jarociński, Marek, 2020. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Working Paper Series 2482, European Central Bank.
    18. Alex Hsu & Indrajit Mitra & Yu Xu & Linghang Zeng, 2023. "The Fed Information Effect and Firm-Level Investment: Evidence and Theory," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-6a, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, revised Mar 2024.
    19. Mariana García-Schmidt, 2024. "Is the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Alive in Emerging Markets?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1017, Central Bank of Chile.
    20. Hie Joo Ahn & Leland E. Farmer, 2024. "Disagreement About the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-084, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Martin Baumgaertner, 2022. "Financial Markets and ECB Monetary Policy Communication – A Second QE Surprise," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202203, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    22. Alex Hsu & Indrajit Mitra & Linghang Zeng, 2023. "The Profitability Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    23. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    24. Salomé Fofana & Paula Patzelt & Ricardo Reis, 2024. "Household Disagreement about Expected Inflation," Discussion Papers 2418, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    25. Marc Burri & Daniel Kaufmann, 2024. "Multi-dimensional monetary policy shocks based on heteroscedasticity," IRENE Working Papers 24-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    26. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2020. "Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts: New Data and Evidence on the Efficiency of the Fed's Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-090, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Ariadne Checo & Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Mr. Damiano Sandri, 2024. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2024/093, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Zhao Han & Chengcheng Jia, 2023. "How Important Is the Information Effect of Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 23-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    29. Nakamura, Fumitaka & Sudo, Nao & Sugisaki, Yu, 2024. "Assessing monetary policy surprises in Japan by high frequency identification," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    30. Franconi, Alessandro & Rella, Giacomo, 2023. "Monetary Policy across the Wealth Distribution," SocArXiv hn3pc, Center for Open Science.
    31. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

  10. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2020. "The Fed's Response to Economic News Explains the "Fed Information Effect"," CESifo Working Paper Series 8151, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Leonardo Melosi & Hiroshi Morita & Anna Rogantini Picco & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," CESifo Working Paper Series 11312, CESifo.
    2. Hamza Bennani, 2023. "Overconfidence of the chair of the Federal Reserve and market expectations: Evidence based on media coverage," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3403-3419, July.
    3. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Martin Baumgärtner & Jens Klose, 2021. "Why central banks announcing liquidity injections is more effective than forward guidance," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 236-256, August.
    5. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Kara, Ali Hakan & Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2020. "Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior," CFS Working Paper Series 642, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    6. Benjamin Gardner & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2021. "Words Speak as Loudly as Actions: Central Bank Communication and the Response of Equity Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2020. "Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Sui-Jade Ho & Oezer Karagedikli, 2021. "Effects of Monetary Policy Communication in Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from Malaysia," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202126, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    9. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf & Sigurd A. M. Steffensen, 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," BIS Working Papers 996, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2023. "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1-19.
    11. Christopher D. Cotton, 2022. "Looking Beyond the Fed: Do Central Banks Cause Information Effects?," Working Papers 22-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    12. Julien Pinter & Evzen Kocenda, 2021. "Media Treatment of Monetary Policy Surprises and Their Impact on Firms' and Consumers' Expectations," Working Papers IES 2021/30, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2021.
    13. Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer, , 2021. "Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world," Occasional Paper Series 274, European Central Bank.
    14. Jarociński, Marek, 2020. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Working Paper Series 2482, European Central Bank.
    15. Martin Baumgaertner, 2022. "Financial Markets and ECB Monetary Policy Communication – A Second QE Surprise," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202203, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    16. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Ampudia, Miguel & Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2022. "Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 49-67.
    18. Maurer, Tim D. & Nitschka, Thomas, 2023. "Stock market evidence on the international transmission channels of US monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    19. Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Grotteria, Marco, 2022. "Real-time price discovery via verbal communication: Method and application to Fedspeak," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 993-1025.
    20. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2020. "Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts: New Data and Evidence on the Efficiency of the Fed's Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-090, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Hoek, Jasper & Kamin, Steve & Yoldas, Emre, 2022. "Are higher U.S. interest rates always bad news for emerging markets?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    22. Shieh, Harrison, 2024. "Can you hear me now? Identifying the effect of Chinese monetary policy announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    23. YAMAMOTO, Yohei & 山本, 庸平, 2018. "Identifying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Models via Changes in Shock Variances," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-72, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    24. Karnaukh, Nina & Vokata, Petra, 2022. "Growth forecasts and news about monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 55-70.
    25. Tobias Adrian & Gaston Gelos & Nora Lamersdorf & Emanuel Moench, 2024. "The asymmetric and persistent effects of Fed policy on global bond yields," BIS Working Papers 1195, Bank for International Settlements.
    26. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

  11. Michael D. Bauer & Aeimit Lakdawala & Philippe Mueller, 2019. "Market-based monetary policy uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 7621, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Jiqiang & Dai, Peng-Fei & Zhang, Xuewen, 2024. "Untangling the entanglement of US monetary policy uncertainty and European natural gas and carbon prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Akkaya, Yıldız & Bitter, Lea & Brand, Claus & Fonseca, Luís, 2024. "A statistical approach to identifying ECB monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2994, European Central Bank.
    3. Kroencke, Tim-Alexander & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2021. "The FOMC risk shift," SAFE Working Paper Series 302, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2018. "The growing impact of US monetary policy on emerging financial markets: Evidence from India," Working Papers 2018-9, Michigan State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Jung, Alexander, 2023. "US monetary policy spillovers to European banks," Working Paper Series 2876, European Central Bank.
    8. Alessandro Barbera & Dora Xia & Sonya Zhu, 2023. "The term structure of inflation forecasts disagreement and monetary policy transmission," BIS Working Papers 1114, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Nicolò Fraccaroli & Alessandro Giovannini & Jean-François Jamet & Eric Persson, 2023. "Central Banks in Parliaments: A Text Analysis of the Parliamentary Hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 543-600, June.
    10. Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer, , 2021. "Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world," Occasional Paper Series 274, European Central Bank.
    11. Gu, Chen & Chen, Denghui & Stan, Raluca & Shen, Aizhong, 2022. "It is not just What you say, but How you say it: Why tonality matters in central bank communication," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 216-231.
    12. Benchimol, Jonathan & Saadon, Yossi & Segev, Nimrod, 2023. "Stock market reactions to monetary policy surprises under uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Lu, Yunzhi & Li, Jie & Yang, Haisheng, 2023. "Time-varying impacts of monetary policy uncertainty on China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    14. Goodhead, Robert, 2024. "The economic impact of yield curve compression: Evidence from euro area forward guidance and unconventional monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    15. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    16. Wen, Fenghua & Shui, Aojie & Cheng, Yuxiang & Gong, Xu, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty and stock returns in G7 and BRICS countries: A quantile-on-quantile approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 457-482.
    17. Couture, Cody, 2021. "Financial market effects of FOMC projections," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    18. Griller, Stefan & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2024. "Financial markets and legal challenges to unconventional monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    19. Yasmeen Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Interest rate uncertainty and the shape of the yield curve of U.S. treasury bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 981-1003, December.
    20. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
    21. Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Grotteria, Marco, 2022. "Real-time price discovery via verbal communication: Method and application to Fedspeak," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 993-1025.
    22. Daniel J. Lewis, 2019. "Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects," Staff Reports 891, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    23. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Perceived monetary policy uncertainty," MPRA Paper 114964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Ahrens, Maximilian & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Mcmahon, Michael & Neely, Christopher J & Yang, Xiye, 2023. "Mind Your Language: Market Responses to Central Bank Speeches," CEPR Discussion Papers 18191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Amir Takaloo & Shahla Valizadeh, 2023. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Variables through Credit and Balance Sheet Channels: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.
    26. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    27. Rui Guo & Dun Jia & Xi Sun, 2023. "Information Acquisition, Uncertainty Reduction, and Pre-Announcement Premium in China," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 1077-1118.
    28. Wang, Fan & Pan, Changchun & Wang, Weiqiang, 2023. "Impact of US monetary policy uncertainty on RMB exchange rate volatility:The role of international capital flows," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    29. Grace Xing Hu & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang & Haoxiang Zhu, 2019. "Premium for Heightened Uncertainty: Explaining Pre-Announcement Market Returns," NBER Working Papers 25817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Sekandary, Ghezal & Bask, Mikael, 2023. "Monetary policy uncertainty, monetary policy surprises and stock returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    31. Griffa, Cristina & Oliver i Vert, Miquel & Tatlow, Benjamin & Zhong, Yaolang, 2023. "Replication Report: Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," I4R Discussion Paper Series 76, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    32. Matsumoto, Ryo & Morita, Hiroshi & Ono, Taiki, 2022. "Central Bank Information Effects in Japan : The Role of Uncertainty Channel," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-126, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    33. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Minas Panagiotidis & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Macroeconomic and Uncertainty Shocks’ Effects on Energy Prices: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, February.
    34. Baxa, Jaromir & Buliskeria, Nino & Elminejad, Ali & Havranek, Tomas & Havrankova, Zuzana & Kundu, Suranjana, 2023. "A comment on Bauer, Lakdawala, Mueller: Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty (2022)," I4R Discussion Paper Series 77, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    35. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

  12. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    2. Adam Kucera & Milan Szabo, 2019. "Estimating the neutral Czech government bond yield curve," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,, Czech National Bank.
    3. Taylor, Alan M. & Davis, Josh & Fuenzalida, Cristian, 2019. "The Natural Rate Puzzle: Global Macro Trends and the Market-Implied r," CEPR Discussion Papers 14201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Galo Nuno & Peter Paz, 2024. "Navigating by Falling Stars:Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Adam Kucera & Evzen Kocenda & Ales Marsal, 2022. "Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Working Papers IES 2022/04, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2022.
    7. Rabitsch-Schilcher, Katrin & Marsal, Ales & Kaszab, Lorant, 2023. "From Linear to Nonlinear: Rethinking Inflation Dynamics in the Calvo Pricing Mechanism," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 350, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    8. Jia Li & Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2022. "Weak Identification of Long Memory with Implications for Inference," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2334, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2024. "Inflation (de-)anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2964, European Central Bank.
    10. Hasan Engin Duran & Pawe³ Gajewski, 2023. "State-level Taylor rule and monetary policy stress," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 89-120, March.
    11. Petter Eilif de Lange & Morten Risstad & Kristian Semmen & Sjur Westgaard, 2023. "Term Premia in Norwegian Interest Rate Swaps," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, March.
    12. Cao, Shuo & Crump, Richard K. & ,, 2020. "Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 15122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2022. "A GARCH approach to model short‐term interest rates: Evidence from Spanish economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1621-1632, April.
    14. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Discussion Papers 32/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Zhang, Yugui & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2021. "Global bond risk premia under falling stars," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    16. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Anh Le & Christian Lundblad, 2022. "Tractable Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8411-8429, November.
    17. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf & Sigurd A. M. Steffensen, 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," BIS Working Papers 996, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2021. "A novel approach to the estimation of an actively managed component of foreign exchange reserves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 83-95.
    19. Davis, Josh & Fuenzalida, Cristian & Huetsch, Leon & Mills, Benjamin & Taylor, Alan M., 2024. "Global natural rates in the long run: Postwar macro trends and the market-implied r∗ in 10 advanced economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    20. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2021. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," Working Paper Series 2612, European Central Bank.
    21. Andrea Berardi & Michael Markovich & Alberto Plazzi & Andrea Tamoni, 2021. "Mind the (Convergence) Gap: Bond Predictability Strikes Back!," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7888-7911, December.
    22. Kaszab, Lorant & Marsal, Ales & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2020. "Trend inflation meets macro-finance: the puzzling behavior of price dispersion," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 304, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    23. Ales Marsal & Katrin Rabitsch & Lorant Kaszab, 2023. "Undesired Consequences of Calvo Pricing in a Non-linear World," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    24. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2018. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," Working Paper Series 2017-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    25. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2020. "Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2020, Bank of Finland.
    26. Valentin Burban & Bruno De Backer & Andreea Liliana Vladu, 2024. "Inflation (De-)Anchoring in the Euro Area," Working papers 965, Banque de France.
    27. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2017. "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Evidence on monetary transmission and the role of imperfect information: Interest rate versus inflation target shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    29. James McNeil, 2020. "Estimation of Impulse response functions with term structure local projections," Working Papers daleconwp2020-05, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    30. Posch, Olaf, 2018. "Resurrecting the New-Keynesian Model: (Un)conventional Policy and the Taylor rule," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181616, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    31. Adam Hale Shapiro & Daniel J Wilson, 2022. "Taking the Fed at its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives using Text Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(5), pages 2768-2805.
    32. Haitham A. Al-Zoubi, 2024. "An affine model for short rates when monetary policy is path dependent," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 151-201, July.
    33. Ferrando, Annalisa & McAdam, Peter & Petroulakis, Filippos & Vives, Xavier, 2021. "Product market structure and monetary policy: evidence from the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 2632, European Central Bank.
    34. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2021. "Modeling persistent interest rates with double-autoregressive processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    35. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    36. Dr. Thomas Nitschka & Shajivan Satkurunathan, 2021. "Habits die hard: implications for bond and stock markets internationally," Working Papers 2021-08, Swiss National Bank.
    37. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Niu, 2021. "A Semiparametric Model for Bond Pricing with Life Cycle Fundamental," Working Papers 2021-01-06, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    38. Schupp, Fabian & Geiger, Felix, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181529, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    39. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Kevin Rennert & Brian C. Prest & William A. Pizer & Richard G. Newell & David Anthoff & Cora Kingdon & Lisa Rennels & Roger Cooke & Adrian E. Raftery & Hana Sevcikova & Frank Errickson, 2021. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 223-305.
    41. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Liu, 2021. "Estimating Impact of Age Distribution on Bond Pricing: A Semiparametric Functional Data Analysis Approach," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202102, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2021.
    42. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1255-1270, September.
    43. Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Presidential Address: How Much “Rationality” Is There in Bond‐Market Risk Premiums?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1611-1654, August.
    44. James A. Duffy & Sophocles Mavroeidis & Sam Wycherley, 2022. "Cointegration with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Papers 2211.09604, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    45. Boeckx, Jef & Iania, Leonardo & Wauters, Joris, 2023. "Macroeconomic drivers of Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premia," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023003, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    46. Karahan, Cenk C. & Soykök, Emre, 2022. "Term premium dynamics in an emerging market: Risk, liquidity, and behavioral factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    47. Munch Grønlund, Asger & Jørgensen, Kasper & Schupp, Fabian, 2024. "Measuring market-based core inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 2908, European Central Bank.
    48. Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-086, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    49. Kučera, Adam, 2020. "Identification of triggers of U.S. yield curve movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    50. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    51. Lange, Ronald Henry, 2018. "The term structure of liquidity premia and the macroeconomy in Canada: A dynamic latent-factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-182.
    52. Abbritti, Mirko & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis & Moreno, Antonio, 2023. "Term premium in a fractionally cointegrated yield curve," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    53. Pflueger, Carolin & Rinaldi, Gianluca, 2022. "Why does the Fed move markets so much? A model of monetary policy and time-varying risk aversion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 71-89.
    54. Li, Junye & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2024. "Risks and risk premia in the US Treasury market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    55. Marco Giacoletti & Kristoffer T. Laursen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Learning From Disagreement in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 395-441, February.
    56. Chen, Jiazi & Niu, Linlin, 2023. "How do baby boomers affect interest rates? A functional analysis of the impact of age distribution on macroeconomic trends," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    57. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Why Have Long-term Treasury Yields Fallen Since the 1980s? Expected Short Rates and Term Premiums in (Quasi-) Real Time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    58. Manfred M. Fischer & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023. "General Bayesian time‐varying parameter vector autoregressions for modeling government bond yields," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 69-87, January.
    59. Andrea Ajello & Isabel Cairó & Vasco Curdia & Thomas A. Lubik & Albert Queraltó, 2020. "Monetary Policy Tradeoffs and the Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    60. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2023. "Decomposing Long Bond Returns: A Decentralized Theory," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 997-1026.
    61. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "Models, Markets, and Monetary Policy : a speech at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference \"Strategies for Monetary Policy,\" Stanford University, Stanford, California, May 3, 201," Speech 1058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    62. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    63. Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Shousha, Samer, 2023. "Determinants of global neutral interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    64. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    65. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.

  13. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5187, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Guo, Bin & Huang, Fuzhe & Li, Kai, 2020. "Time to build and bond risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    4. Halberstadt, Arne, 2023. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 25-39.
    5. Eguren Martin, Fernando & Meldrum, Andrew & Yan, Wen, 2021. "No-Arbitrage pricing of GDP-Linked bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2024. "Inflation (de-)anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2964, European Central Bank.
    7. Goodarzi, Milad & Meinerding, Christoph, 2023. "Asset allocation with recursive parameter updating and macroeconomic regime identifiers," Discussion Papers 06/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Zhang, Yugui & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2021. "Global bond risk premia under falling stars," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    9. Dongho Song, 2017. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(8), pages 2761-2817.
    10. Meldrum, Andrew & Raczko, Marek & Spencer, Peter, 2018. "The information in the joint term structures of bond yields," Bank of England working papers 772, Bank of England.
    11. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    12. Valentin Burban & Bruno De Backer & Andreea Liliana Vladu, 2024. "Inflation (De-)Anchoring in the Euro Area," Working papers 965, Banque de France.
    13. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2017. "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Edward N. Gamber (CBO), 2017. "Did Treasury Debt Markets Anticipate the Persistent Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates?: Working Paper 2017-07," Working Papers 53153, Congressional Budget Office.
    15. Constantino Hevia & Martín Sola & Ivan Petrella, 2022. "Bond risk premia, priced regime shifts, and macroeconomic fundamentals," Department of Economics Working Papers 2022_03, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    16. Backwell, Alex, 2021. "Unspanned stochastic volatility from an empirical and practical perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    17. Victor Olkhov, 2018. "How Macro Transactions Describe the Evolution and Fluctuation of Financial Variables," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-19, March.
    18. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    19. Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Nersisyan, Liana, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Bond Risk Premia: Evidence from a Panel of 15 Countries," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023002, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    20. Edward N Gamber & Julie K Smith, 2020. "Monetary policy and the yield curve," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 407-424.
    21. Martin M. Andreasen, 2021. "The New Keynesian Model and Bond Yields," CREATES Research Papers 2021-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    22. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.
    23. Siyu Bie & Francis X. Diebold & Jingyu He & Junye Li, 2024. "Machine Learning and the Yield Curve: Tree-Based Macroeconomic Regime Switching," Papers 2408.12863, arXiv.org.
    24. Markus Sihvonen, 2024. "Yield curve momentum," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(3), pages 805-830.
    25. Peter Feldhütter & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen & Philipp Illeditsch, 2018. "Risk Premia and Volatilities in a Nonlinear Term Structure Model [Quadratic term structure models: theory and evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 337-380.
    26. Halberstadt, Arne, 2021. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," Discussion Papers 27/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    27. Alex Aronovich & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2021. "High-Frequency Estimates of the Natural Real Rate and Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Min Wei, 2019. "Comments on "Determinants of Asia-pacific government bond yields"," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Asia-Pacific fixed income markets: evolving structure, participation and pricing, volume 102, pages 41-44, Bank for International Settlements.
    29. Feng Zhao & Guofu Zhou & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2021. "Unspanned Global Macro Risks in Bond Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7825-7843, December.
    30. Goliński, Adam & Spencer, Peter, 2017. "The advantages of using excess returns to model the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 163-181.
    31. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    32. Moura, Rubens, 2022. "MultiATSM: An R Package for Arbitrage-free Multicountry Affine Term Structure of Interest Rates Models with Unspanned Macroeconomic Risk," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2022001, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).

  14. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5241, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
    2. Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
    3. Kaminska, Iryna & Vayanos, Dimitri & Zinna, Gabriele, 2011. "Preferred-habitat investors and the US term structure of real rates," Bank of England working papers 435, Bank of England.
    4. Constantino Hevia & Martin Sola, 2018. "Bond Risk Premia and Restrictions on Risk Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-22, October.
    5. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2018. "(Un)expected Monetary Policy Shocks and Term Premia," 2018 Meeting Papers 102, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Meldrum, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt, 2015. "Long-run priors for term structure models," Bank of England working papers 575, Bank of England.
    8. Gabriele Zinna, 2016. "Price Pressures on UK Real Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1587-1630.
    9. Ireland, Peter N., 2015. "Monetary policy, bond risk premia, and the economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 124-140.
    10. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2013. "A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Staff Working Papers 13-10, Bank of Canada.
    11. Duffee, Gregory, 2013. "Forecasting Interest Rates," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 385-426, Elsevier.
    12. Daniela Osterrieder & Peter C. Schotman, 2012. "The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums," CREATES Research Papers 2012-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Sustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Bank of England working papers 914, Bank of England, revised 28 Apr 2021.
    14. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2014. "No Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 9848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Mirkov, Nikola & Sutter, Barbara, 2012. "Central Bank Reserves and the Yield Curve at the ZLB," Working Papers on Finance 1208, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    16. Meldrum, Andrew & Raczko, Marek & Spencer, Peter, 2018. "The information in the joint term structures of bond yields," Bank of England working papers 772, Bank of England.
    17. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    18. Anne Balter & Antoon Pelsser & Peter Schotman, 2013. "Extrapolating the term structure of interest rates with parameter uncertainty," Papers 1312.5073, arXiv.org.
    19. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    20. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2012. "Identification and estimation of Gaussian affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 315-331.
    21. Daniela Osterrieder, 2013. "Interest Rates with Long Memory: A Generalized Affine Term-Structure Model," CREATES Research Papers 2013-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    22. Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin & Zhang, Chen, 2022. "Affine arbitrage-free yield net models with application to the euro debt crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 201-220.
    23. Andrea Carriero & Lorenzo Ricci & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2022. "Expectations and term premia in EFSF bond yields," Working Papers 54, European Stability Mechanism.
    24. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Testable Implications of Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 16931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2019. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model," Working Papers 2019-32, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    26. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    27. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Unbiased estimate of dynamic term structure models," Working Paper Series 2011-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    28. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    29. Kick, Heinrich, 2017. "Pricing of bonds and equity when the zero lower bound is relevant," Working Paper Series 1992, European Central Bank.
    30. Adam Golinski & Peter Spencer, 2019. "Estimating the term structure with linear regressions: Getting to the roots of the problem," Discussion Papers 19/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
    31. Rogier Quaedvlieg & Peter Schotman, 2022. "Hedging Long-Term Liabilities [Pricing the Term Structure with Linear Regressions]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 505-538.
    32. Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "Price pressures in the UK index-linked market: an empirical investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 968, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    33. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.

  15. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2015. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," CESifo Working Paper Series 5541, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
    2. Kortela, Tomi & Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Identification through the yield curve," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2020, Bank of Finland.
    3. Kevin J. Lansing & Stephen F. LeRoy & Jun Ma, 2022. "Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability: Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?," Working Paper Series 2018-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    5. Chernov, Mikhail & Bauer, Michael, 2021. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," CEPR Discussion Papers 16274, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Kalogeropoulos, Konstantinos & Karouzakis, Nikolaos, 2024. "Sequential learning and economic benefits from dynamic term structure models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123659, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Sraer, David & Haddad, Valentin, 2019. "The Banking View of Bond Risk Premia," CEPR Discussion Papers 14207, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Guo, Bin & Huang, Fuzhe & Li, Kai, 2020. "Time to build and bond risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models," Working Paper Series 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Don H. Kim & Marcelo Ochoa, 2021. "International Yield Spillovers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-001, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    12. Maria Ludovica Drudi & Federico Calogero Nucera, 2022. "Economic fundamentals and stock market valuation: a CAPE-based approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1393, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Davide Pettenuzzo & Antonio Gargano & Allan Timmermann, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 75R, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Jul 2016.
    14. Mirco Rubin & Dario Ruzzi, 2020. "Equity Tail Risk in the Treasury Bond Market," Papers 2007.05933, arXiv.org.
    15. Daniel Borup & Jonas N. Eriksen & Mads M. Kjær & Martin Thyrsgaard, 2024. "Predicting Bond Return Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(2), pages 931-951, February.
    16. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2024. "Inflation (de-)anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2964, European Central Bank.
    17. Al-Zoubi, Haitham A., 2019. "Bond and option prices with permanent shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 272-290.
    18. Andreas Humpe & David G. McMillan, 2018. "Equity/bond yield correlation and the FED model: evidence of switching behaviour from the G7 markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(6), pages 413-428, October.
    19. Joelle Miffre & Hossein Rad & Rand Kwong Yew Low & Robert Faff, 2023. "The commodity risk premium and neural networks," Post-Print hal-04322519, HAL.
    20. Goodarzi, Milad & Meinerding, Christoph, 2023. "Asset allocation with recursive parameter updating and macroeconomic regime identifiers," Discussion Papers 06/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Zhang, Yugui & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2021. "Global bond risk premia under falling stars," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    22. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Taylor, AM Robert, 2021. "Simple Tests for Stock Return Predictability with Good Size and Power Properties," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 29814, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    23. Mariya Gubareva & Maria Rosa Borges, 2022. "Governed by the cycle: interest rate sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 991-1019, June.
    24. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    25. Aşty Al-Jaaf, 2022. "Dividend predictability and higher moment risk premia," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(2), pages 83-99, March.
    26. Andrea Berardi & Michael Markovich & Alberto Plazzi & Andrea Tamoni, 2021. "Mind the (Convergence) Gap: Bond Predictability Strikes Back!," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7888-7911, December.
    27. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    28. Zhang, Han & Guo, Bin & Liu, Lanbiao, 2022. "The time-varying bond risk premia in China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-76.
    29. Fernandes, Marcelo & Nunes, Clemens & Reis, Yuri, 2021. "What Drives the Nominal Yield Curve in Brazil?," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 40(2), April.
    30. Valentin Burban & Bruno De Backer & Andreea Liliana Vladu, 2024. "Inflation (De-)Anchoring in the Euro Area," Working papers 965, Banque de France.
    31. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2017. "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Edward N. Gamber (CBO), 2017. "Did Treasury Debt Markets Anticipate the Persistent Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates?: Working Paper 2017-07," Working Papers 53153, Congressional Budget Office.
    33. Huang, Dashan & Jiang, Fuwei & Li, Kunpeng & Tong, Guoshi & Zhou, Guofu, 2023. "Are bond returns predictable with real-time macro data?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    34. Xiaosai Liao & Xinjue Li & Qingliang Fan, 2024. "Robust Bond Risk Premia Predictability Test in the Quantiles," Papers 2410.03557, arXiv.org.
    35. Mirco Rubin & Dario Ruzzi, 2020. "Equity tail risk in the treasury bond market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1311, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    36. Haitham A. Al-Zoubi, 2024. "An affine model for short rates when monetary policy is path dependent," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 151-201, July.
    37. Liu, Yan & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Reconstructing the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1395-1425.
    38. Constantino Hevia & Martín Sola & Ivan Petrella, 2022. "Bond risk premia, priced regime shifts, and macroeconomic fundamentals," Department of Economics Working Papers 2022_03, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    39. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2021. "Modeling persistent interest rates with double-autoregressive processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    40. Santis, Roberto A. De, 2018. "Unobservable systematic risk, economic activity and stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 51-69.
    41. Wan, Runqing & Fulop, Andras & Li, Junye, 2022. "Real-time Bayesian learning and bond return predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 114-130.
    42. Baumeister, Christiane, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 16520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Su, Hao & Ying, Chengwei & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2022. "Disaster risk matters in the bond market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    44. Martin M. Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2016. "Bond Market Asymmetries across Recessions and Expansions: New Evidence on Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2016-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    45. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "Die Entwicklung der Langfristzinsen in den USA und das "Quantitative Easing" der FED," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 40, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).
    46. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    47. Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Nersisyan, Liana, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Bond Risk Premia: Evidence from a Panel of 15 Countries," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023002, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    48. Longzhen Fan & Xin Hou & Qian Sun, 2023. "A monetary policy–based explanation of swap spreads in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1645-1667, November.
    49. Rita Pimentel & Morten Risstad & Sjur Westgaard, 2022. "Predicting interest rate distributions using PCA & quantile regression," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 291-311, December.
    50. Roman Frydman & Joshua R. Stillwagon, 2016. "Stock-Market Expectations: Econometric Evidence that both REH and Behavioral Insights Matter," Working Papers Series 44, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    51. Edward N Gamber & Julie K Smith, 2020. "Monetary policy and the yield curve," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 407-424.
    52. Busetto, Filippo, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 1058, Bank of England.
    53. Andrea Berardi & Alberto Plazzi, 2019. "Dissecting the Yield Curve: The International Evidence," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-73, Swiss Finance Institute.
    54. Audrino, Francesco & Offner, Eric A., 2024. "The impact of macroeconomic news sentiment on interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    55. Kučera, Adam, 2020. "Identification of triggers of U.S. yield curve movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    56. Park, Yang-Ho, 2022. "Spread position as a leading economic indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    57. Marco Giacoletti & Kristoffer T. Laursen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Learning From Disagreement in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 395-441, February.
    58. Li, Junye & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2024. "Risks and risk premia in the US Treasury market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    59. Jing-Zhi Huang & Zhan Shi, 2023. "Machine-Learning-Based Return Predictors and the Spanning Controversy in Macro-Finance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1780-1804, March.
    60. Feng Zhao & Guofu Zhou & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2021. "Unspanned Global Macro Risks in Bond Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7825-7843, December.
    61. Fernandes, Marcelo & Vieira, Fausto, 2019. "A dynamic Nelson–Siegel model with forward-looking macroeconomic factors for the yield curve in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    62. Mariya Gubareva & Benjamin Keddad, 2022. "Emerging markets financial sector debt: A Markov‐switching study of interest rate sensitivity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3851-3863, October.
    63. Gubareva, Mariya & Borges, Maria Rosa, 2020. "Switching interest rate sensitivity regimes of U.S. Corporates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    64. Mariya Gubareva, 2018. "Historical Interest Rate Sensitivity of Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: Evidence of Regime Dependent Behavior," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 405-442, November.
    65. Christos Ioannidis & Kook Ka, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1479-1522, September.
    66. Cao, Zhen & Han, Liyan & Zhang, Qunzi, 2022. "Stock return predictability in China: Power of oil price trend," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    67. Joel R. Barber, 2021. "Empirical analysis of term structure shifts," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 360-371, April.

  16. Michael D. Bauer, 2014. "Inflation Expectations and the News," Working Paper Series 2014-9, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Nominal interest rates and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Modugno, 2014. "Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-34, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2019. "The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Short And In The Long Run," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1959-1977, July.
    4. Pierre L. Siklos, 2016. "Forecast Disagreement and the Inflation Outlook: New International Evidence," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    5. Liu, Zhuoshi & Vangelista, Elisabetta & Kaminska, Iryna & Relleen, Jon, 2015. "The informational content of market-based measures of inflation expectations derived from govenment bonds and inflation swaps in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 551, Bank of England.
    6. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Richhild Moessner & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2018. "Computing Long-Term Market Inflation Expectations for Countries without Inflation Expectation Markets," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(3), pages 23-48, September.
    7. Alex Ilek, 2020. "Are monetary surprises effective? The view of professional forecasters in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2020.09, Bank of Israel.
    8. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The credibility of the ECB's inflation target in times of Corona: New evidence from an online survey," Discussion Papers 2020/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    9. Matthieu Picault & Julien Pinter & Thomas Renault, 2022. "Media sentiment on monetary policy: Determinants and relevance for inflation expectations," Post-Print hal-03959147, HAL.
    10. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Inflation expectations, inflation target credibility and the COVID-19 pandemic: New evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 2021/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    11. Hanoma, Ahmed & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The information content of inflation swap rates for the long-term inflation expectations of professionals: Evidence from a MIDAS analysis," Discussion Papers 2018/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    12. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Sustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Bank of England working papers 914, Bank of England, revised 28 Apr 2021.
    13. Ciccarelli, Matteo & García, Juan Angel, 2021. "Expectation spillovers and the return of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    14. Hie Joo Ahn & Choongryul Yang, 2022. "Effects of Monetary Policy on Household Expectations: The Role of Homeownership," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Hachula, Michael & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The dynamic impact of macroeconomic news on long-term inflation expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 39-43.
    16. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    17. Francesco Corsello & Stefano Neri & Alex Tagliabracci, 2019. "Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 516, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Diana Gabrielyan & Lenno Uusküla, 2022. "Inflation Expectations And Consumption With Machine Learning," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 142, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    19. Pierre L. Siklos, 2018. "What has publishing inflation forecasts accomplished? Central banks and their competitors," CAMA Working Papers 2018-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Binder, Carola Conces, 2021. "Household expectations and the release of macroeconomic statistics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    21. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation Anchoring in the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145697, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    22. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    23. Wright, Jonathan & Gürkaynak, Refet, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," CEPR Discussion Papers 9388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Pavel Gertler & Roman Horvath, 2017. "Market Reading of Central Bankers Words. A High-Frequency Evidence," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    25. Julie Bennett & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 104(2), pages 131-148.
    26. Gertler, Pavel & Horvath, Roman, 2018. "Central bank communication and financial markets: New high-frequency evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 336-345.
    27. Winnie Coleman & Dieter Nautz, 2023. "Inflation Expectations, Inflation Target Credibility, and the COVID‐19 Pandemic: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1937-1953, October.
    28. McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    29. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2022. "Inflation Expectations, Inflation Target Credibility and the COVID-19 Pandemic: New Evidence from Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264094, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    30. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation anchoring in the euro area," Discussion Papers 04/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    31. Inês da Cunha Cabral & Pedro Pires Ribeiro & João Nicolau, 2022. "Changes in inflation compensation and oil prices: short-term and long-term dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 581-603, February.
    32. Tetiana Yukhymenko, 2021. "Role of the Media in the Inflation Expectation Formation Process," IHEID Working Papers 13-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    33. Barria, Rodrigo & Pinter, Gabor, 2023. "Mispricing in inflation markets," Bank of England working papers 1034, Bank of England.
    34. Zhang, Ji, 2016. "Macroeconomic news and the real interest rates at the zero lower bound," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 172-185.
    35. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2021. "The reaction of inflation forecasts to news about the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 256-264.
    36. Carola Binder & Rupal Kamdar, 2022. "Expected and Realized Inflation in Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 131-156, Summer.

  17. Glenn Rudebusch & Michael Bauer, 2013. "The Shadow Rate, Taylor Rules, and Monetary Policy Lift-off," 2013 Meeting Papers 691, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Rasa Stasiukynaite, 2017. "Understanding Monetary Policy Stance," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 14, Bank of Lithuania.

  18. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 2013-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
    2. Leu, Shawn C.-Y. & Robertson, Mari L., 2021. "Mortgage credit volumes and monetary policy after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 483-500.
    3. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
    4. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 20486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alfaro, Rodrigo & Piña, Marco, 2023. "Estimates of the US Shadow-Rate," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    6. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2016. "A Time Series Model of Interest Rates With the Effective Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Margaux MacDonald & Michał Ksawery Popiel, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1061-1115, November.
    8. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5241, CESifo.
    9. Dora Xia & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2018. "The negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 703, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Stefan Avdjiev & Leonardo Gambacorta & Linda S. Goldberg & Stefano Schiaffi, 2017. "The Shifting Drivers of Global Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 23565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jari Hännikäinen, 2017. "The shadow rate as a predictor of real activity and inflation: evidence from a data-rich environment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(8), pages 527-535, May.
    12. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    13. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models," Working Paper Series 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2018. "A Shadow Rate or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea L., 2016. "Below the zero lower bound: A shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area," Discussion Papers 32/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Leo Krippner, 2013. "Faster solutions for Black zero lower bound term structure models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-66, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections," PIER Working Paper Archive 20-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    18. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    19. Naoko Hara & Ryuzo Miyao & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2019. "The Effects of Asset Purchases and Normalization of US Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-16, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    20. Cenedese, Gino & Elard, Ilaf, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    21. Eguren Martin, Fernando & Meldrum, Andrew & Yan, Wen, 2021. "No-Arbitrage pricing of GDP-Linked bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    22. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2017. "The Yellen rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 59-71.
    23. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2014. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 20117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Salman Huseynov, 2021. "Long and short memory in dynamic term structure models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    25. Sami Alpanda & Sarah Zubairy, 2014. "Addressing Household Indebtedness: Monetary, Fiscal or Macroprudential Policy?," Staff Working Papers 14-58, Bank of Canada.
    26. Petter Eilif de Lange & Morten Risstad & Kristian Semmen & Sjur Westgaard, 2023. "Term Premia in Norwegian Interest Rate Swaps," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, March.
    27. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Forecasting Inflation with a Zero Lower Bound or Negative Interest Rates: Evidence from Point and Density Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 9687, CESifo.
    28. Aysun, Uluc & Jeon, Kiyoung & Kabukcuoglu, Zeynep, 2018. "Is the credit channel alive? Firm-level evidence on the sensitivity of borrowing spreads to monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 305-319.
    29. Stephen Hansen & Michael McMahon, 2016. "Shocking Language: Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Central Bank Communication," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Bonciani, Dario & Oh, Joonseok, 2023. "Monetary policy inertia and the paradox of flexibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    31. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2023. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy During The Great Recession," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 577-606, May.
    32. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Anh Le & Christian Lundblad, 2022. "Tractable Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8411-8429, November.
    33. Carlos Alba & Julio A. Carrillo & Raúl Ibarra, 2024. "Information Effects of US Monetary Policy Announcements on Emerging Economies: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2024-14, Banco de México.
    34. Michael D. Bauer & Christopher J. Neely, 2012. "International channels of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2012-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    35. Ethan Struby, 2018. "Macroeconomic Disagreement in Treasury Yields," Working Papers 2018-04, Carleton College, Department of Economics.
    36. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2016. "Estimating DSGE models with Zero Interest Rate Policy," Discussion Papers 2014-32B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    37. Yoichi Ueno, 2017. "Term Structure Models with Negative Interest Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 17-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    38. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2019. "Quantitative Easing and the Term Premium as a Monetary Policy Instrument," Working Papers halshs-02359503, HAL.
    39. Timo Dimitriadis & Andrew J. Patton & Patrick W. Schmidt, 2019. "Testing Forecast Rationality for Measures of Central Tendency," Papers 1910.12545, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    40. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    41. Bennani, Hamza & Fanta, Nicolas & Gertler, Pavel & Horvath, Roman, 2020. "Does central bank communication signal future monetary policy in a (post)-crisis era? The case of the ECB," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    42. Zhang, Han & Guo, Bin & Liu, Lanbiao, 2022. "The time-varying bond risk premia in China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-76.
    43. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Data: How to Do It and What Have We Learned?," Working Papers 1081, Barcelona School of Economics.
    44. Martin Møller Andreasen & Kasper Jørgensen & Andrew Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," CREATES Research Papers 2019-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    45. Carlos Alba & Gabriel Cuadra & Juan R. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra, 2024. "Capital flows to emerging economies and global risk aversion during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2804-2836, July.
    46. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    47. Jae‐Yun Jun & Victor Lebreton & Yves Rakotondratsimba, 2021. "Forecasting negative yield‐curve distributions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 367-386, April.
    48. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating DSGE models with forward guidance," Discussion Papers 2014-32A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    49. Eric R. Sims & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2019. "Evaluating Central Banks' Tool Kit: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 26040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. A. Monfort & F. Pegoraro & J.-P. Renne & G. Roussellet, 2015. "Staying at Zero with Affine Processes: An Application to Term Structure Modelling," Working papers 558, Banque de France.
    51. Fornero, Jorge & Kirchner, Markus & Molina, Carlos, 2024. "Estimating shadow policy rates in a small open economy and the role of foreign factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    52. Rui WANG, 2019. "Estimating the Monetary Policy Measures of Japan in Shadow/ZLB Term Structure Model," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(6), pages 126-139, November.
    53. Jose David GARCIA REVELO & Yannick LUCOTTE & Florian PRADINES-JOBET, 2019. "Macroprudential and Monetary Policies : The Need to Dance the Tango in Harmony," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2691, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    54. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    55. Hanisch, Max, 2019. "US monetary policy and the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 77-96.
    56. Martin M. Andreasen & Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Why Does Risk Matter More in Recessions than in Expansions?," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0275, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    57. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2016. "Joining the dots: The FOMC and the future path of policy rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11618, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    58. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Pass‐through of shocks into different U.S. prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 1300-1315, August.
    59. Francis, Neville R. & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2020. "How has empirical monetary policy analysis in the U.S. changed after the financial crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 309-321.
    60. Marco J. Lombardi & Feng Zhu, 2018. "A Shadow Policy Rate to Calibrate U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 305-346, December.
    61. Anttila, Juho, 2018. "Measuring the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2018, Bank of Finland.
    62. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating the expected duration of the zero lower bound in DSGE models with forward guidance," Discussion Papers 2014-32, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    63. Garcia Revelo, José David & Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2020. "Macroprudential and monetary policies: The need to dance the Tango in harmony," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    64. Ma, Chaoqun & Tian, Yonggang & Hsiao, Shisong & Deng, Liurui, 2022. "Monetary policy shocks and Bitcoin prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    65. Leo Krippner, 2013. "A tractable framework for zero-lower-bound Gaussian term structure models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    66. Lealand Morin & Ying Shang, 2021. "Federal Reserve policy after the zero lower bound: an indirect inference approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 2105-2124, April.
    67. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Grégory Levieuge & José Garcia-Revelo, 2024. "Revisiting 15 Years of Unusual Transatlantic Monetary Policies," Working Papers hal-04563708, HAL.
    68. Bianco, Timothy, 2021. "Monetary policy and credit flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    69. Dr. Christian Grisse, 2020. "Lower bound uncertainty and long-term interest rates," Working Papers 2020-14, Swiss National Bank.
    70. Andrea Carriero & Lorenzo Ricci & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2022. "Expectations and term premia in EFSF bond yields," Working Papers 54, European Stability Mechanism.
    71. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2018. "Nearly exact Bayesian estimation of non-linear no-arbitrage term structure models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1189, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    72. Baumeister, Christiane, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 16520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    73. Laura Coroneo & Sergio Pastorello, 2017. "European spreads at the interest rate lower bound," Discussion Papers 17/10, Department of Economics, University of York.
    74. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    75. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2018. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with a Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Working Papers e120, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    76. Lu, You-Xun, 2022. "The stabilizing effect of the zero lower bound: A perspective of interest rate target zones," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 61-67.
    77. Schupp, Fabian & Geiger, Felix, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181529, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    78. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs," Working Papers 21-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    79. Hördahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2019. "Modelling yields at the lower bound through regime shifts," Working Paper Series 2320, European Central Bank.
    80. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1255-1270, September.
    81. Rita Pimentel & Morten Risstad & Sjur Westgaard, 2022. "Predicting interest rate distributions using PCA & quantile regression," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 291-311, December.
    82. David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors : The Federal Reserve's Approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    83. Hahn, Jaehoon & Jang, Woon Wook & Kim, Seongjin, 2017. "Risk aversion, uncertainty, and monetary policy in zero lower bound environments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 118-122.
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    94. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Dynamic term structure models: The best way to enforce the zero lower bound," CREATES Research Papers 2014-47, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    95. Evans, Jocelyn D. & Robertson, Mari L., 2018. "The effects of the Fed’s monetary tightening campaign on nonbank mortgage lending," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 164-168.
    96. Kentaro Kikuchi, 2024. "A term structure interest rate model with the Brownian bridge lower bound," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 301-328, September.
    97. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Li, Ka-Fai, 2017. "Term-structure modelling at the zero lower bound: Implications for estimating the forward term premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 100-106.
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    99. Leo Krippner, 2014. "Measuring the stance of monetary policy in conventional and unconventional environments," CAMA Working Papers 2014-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    100. Leo Krippner, 2020. "A Note of Caution on Shadow Rate Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 951-962, June.
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    1. Michele Manna & Stefano Nobili, 2018. "Banks' holdings of and trading in government bonds," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1166, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Anna Cieslak & Andreas Schrimpf, 2018. "Non-Monetary News in Central Bank Communication," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2018, pages 293-315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Woon Gyu Choi & Taesu Kang & Geun-Young Kim & Byongju Lee, 2014. "Global Liquidity Transmission to Emerging Market Economies, and Their Policy Responses," Working Papers 2014-38, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    4. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
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    6. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes, 2016. "Global financial market impact of the announcement of the ECB's asset purchase programme," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 257-265.
    7. Neely, Christopher J., 2022. "How persistent are unconventional monetary policy effects?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Lo Duca, Marco & Nicoletti, Giulio & Vidal Martinez, Ariadna, 2014. "Global corporate bond issuance: what role for US quantitative easing?," Working Paper Series 1649, European Central Bank.
    9. Margaux MacDonald & Michał Ksawery Popiel, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1061-1115, November.
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    11. Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-156.
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  20. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Nominal interest rates and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Shixuan Wang & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Oil Price Uncertainty and Movements in the US Government Bond Risk Premia," Working Papers 201919, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 003, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2022. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 87-155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gabriele Zinna, 2016. "Price Pressures on UK Real Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1587-1630.
    5. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1136, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    7. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1101, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    8. Zhang, Ji, 2016. "Macroeconomic news and the real interest rates at the zero lower bound," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 172-185.
    9. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach(Forthcoming in "Asia-Pacific Financial Markets". )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-446, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    10. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CARF F-Series CARF-F-470, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    11. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(3), pages 297-337, September.
    12. Bingxin Ann Xing & Bruno Feunou & Morvan Nongni-Donfack & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2024. "U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 24-12, Bank of Canada.

  21. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Unbiased estimate of dynamic term structure models," Working Paper Series 2011-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Daniela Osterrieder & Peter C. Schotman, 2012. "The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums," CREATES Research Papers 2012-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Zbynek Stork, 2016. "Term Structure of Interest Rates: Macro-Finance Approach," EcoMod2016 9566, EcoMod.
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    5. Borgy, V. & Laubach, T. & Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Fiscal Sustainability, Default Risk and Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads Markets," Working papers 350, Banque de France.
    6. Tack Yun & Eunmi Ko & Jinsook Kim, 2013. "The Role of Bounded Rationality in Macro-Finance Affine Term-Structure Models," 2013 Meeting Papers 527, Society for Economic Dynamics.

  22. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," Working Paper Series 2023-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Lloyd, Simon, 2018. "Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: overnight indexed swaps and the term structure," Bank of England working papers 763, Bank of England.
    3. Stefania D’Amico & William English & David López‐Salido & Edward Nelson, 2012. "The Federal Reserve's Large‐scale Asset Purchase Programmes: Rationale and Effects," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 415-446, November.
    4. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Nominal interest rates and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Glick, Reuven & Leduc, Sylvain, 2012. "Central bank announcements of asset purchases and the impact on global financial and commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2078-2101.
    6. Mr. Tao Wu, 2014. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2014/189, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Butt, Nick & Churm, Rohan & McMahon, Michael & Morotz, Arpad & Schanz, Jochen, 2015. "QE and the Bank Lending Channel in the United Kingdom," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 244, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    8. Christoph Trebesch & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2014. "ECB Interventions in Distressed Sovereign Debt Markets: The Case of Greek Bonds," CESifo Working Paper Series 4731, CESifo.
    9. Enders, Zeno & Huennekes, Franziska & Müller, Gernot J., 2019. "Monetary policy announcements and expectations: Evidence from german firms," Munich Reprints in Economics 78242, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    10. Corradin, Stefano & Maddaloni, Angela, 2017. "The importance of being special: repo markets during the crisis," Working Paper Series 2065, European Central Bank.
    11. Rafael Cezar & Maéva Silvestrini, 2018. "Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the French International Investment Position," Working papers 701, Banque de France.
    12. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes, 2016. "Global financial market impact of the announcement of the ECB's asset purchase programme," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 257-265.
    13. Carlos Viana de Carvalho & EriC Hsu & Fernanda Necchio, 2016. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Monetary Policy," Textos para discussão 649, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    14. Ken Miyajima & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Yetman, 2014. "Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy to Asia: the role of long-term interest rates," BIS Working Papers 478, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Serdar Kabaca & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2022. "International Transmission of Quantitative Easing Policies: Evidence from Canada," Staff Working Papers 22-30, Bank of Canada.
    16. Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2021. "Beyond the Interest Rate Pass-through: Monetary Policy and Banks Interest Rates during the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers hal-04221606, HAL.
    17. Taisuke Nakata & Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2020. "Equilibrium Yield Curves and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," CARF F-Series CARF-F-482, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    18. Andrea Nocera & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2022. "Causal Effects of the Fed's Large-Scale Asset Purchases on Firms' Capital Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 9695, CESifo.
    19. Floro, Danvee & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2013. "Can forward guidance be ambiguous yet effective?," Kiel Policy Brief 65, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Tamgac, Unay, 2021. "Emerging market exchange rates during quantitative tapering: The effect of US and domestic news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    21. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2016. "Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 331-357.
    22. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    23. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2018. "The growing impact of US monetary policy on emerging financial markets: Evidence from India," Working Papers 2018-9, Michigan State University, Department of Economics.
    24. Stefania D’Amico & N Aaron Pancost, 2022. "Special Repo Rates and the Cross-Section of Bond Prices: The Role of the Special Collateral Risk Premium [Pr icing the term structure with linear regressions]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 117-162.
    25. Canetg, Fabio & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2022. "Overnight rate and signalling effects of central bank bills," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    26. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Steven B. Kamin & Canlin Li & Marius Rodriguez, 2023. "International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: Conventional Policy vs. Quantitative Easing," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 111-158, March.
    27. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Gillan, James M., 2022. "Does quantitative easing affect market liquidity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    28. Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2016. "The ECB’s asset purchase programme: A model-based evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 136-140.
    29. Breckenfelder, Johannes & De Fiore, Fiorella & Andrade, Philippe & Karadi, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2016. "The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment," Working Paper Series 1956, European Central Bank.
    30. Gerlach, Petra, 2013. "Euro area CDS spreads in the crisis: The role of open market operations and contagion," Papers WP449, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    31. Prabheesh, K. P. & Kumar, Sanjiv, 2022. "How Do the Financial Markets Respond to Emerging Economies’ Asset Purchase Program? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," ADBI Working Papers 1314, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    32. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    33. Dubecq, S. & Monfort, A. & Renne, J-P. & Roussellet, G., 2013. "Credit and Liquidity in Interbank Rates: a Quadratic Approach," Working papers 446, Banque de France.
    34. Jing Cynthia Wu & Ji Zhang, 2018. "Global Effective Lower Bound and Unconventional Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 24714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2018. "(Un)expected Monetary Policy Shocks and Term Premia," 2018 Meeting Papers 102, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    36. Naoko Hara & Ryuzo Miyao & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2019. "The Effects of Asset Purchases and Normalization of US Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-16, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    37. Canlin Li & Min Wei, 2013. "Term Structure Modeling with Supply Factors and the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchase Progarms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 3-39, March.
    38. Signe Krogstrup & Dr. Samuel Reynard & Barbara Sutter, 2012. "Liquidity Effects of Quantitative Easing on Long-Term Interest Rates," Working Papers 2012-02, Swiss National Bank.
    39. Shixuan Wang & Rangan Gupta & Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni, 2022. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on US REITs Moments: Evidence from VARs with Functional Shocks," Working Papers 202219, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    40. Koetter, Michael, 2020. "Lending effects of the ECB’s asset purchases," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 39-52.
    41. Altavilla, Carlo & Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2020. "Mending the broken link: Heterogeneous bank lending rates and monetary policy pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 81-98.
    42. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices, a speech at \"The Bank of Finland Conference on Monetary Policy and Future of EMU [Economic and M," Speech 1075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    43. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2022. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 87-155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Belke, Ansgar & Dubova, Irina & Volz, Ulrich, 2017. "Bond Yield Spillovers from Major Advanced Economies to Emerging Asia," GLO Discussion Paper Series 41, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    45. Michael E. Cahill & Stefania D'Amico & Canlin Li & John S. Sears, 2013. "Duration risk versus local supply channel in Treasury yields: evidence from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    46. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2018. "Outside the Box: Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Great Recession and Beyond," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    47. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Huseyin Ozdemir & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Fed’s Unconventional Monetary Policy and Risk Spillover in the US Financial Markets," Working Papers 15-47, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    48. Brent Bundick & A. Lee Smith, 2020. "The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 946-965, December.
    49. Zhou, Siwen, 2019. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme in a Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Modelling Framework," MPRA Paper 92530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    50. Banegas, Ayelen & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel & Siga, Lucas, 2022. "The effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on mutual fund investing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    51. Uluc Aysun, 2016. "The credit channel is alive at the zero lower bound but how does it operate? Firm level evidence on the asymmetric effects of U.S. monetary policy," Working Papers 2016-01, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    52. Gambetti, Luca & Musso, Alberto, 2017. "The macroeconomic impact of the ECB's expanded asset purchase programme (APP)," Working Paper Series 2075, European Central Bank.
    53. Huseyin Ozturk, 2020. "The shape of sovereign yield curve in an emerging economy: Do macroeconomic or external factors matter?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 83-112, February.
    54. Bernhard, Severin & Ebner, Till, 2017. "Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-127.
    55. Andrew Lee Smith, 2014. "House prices, heterogeneous banks and unconventional monetary policy options," Research Working Paper RWP 14-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    56. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2017. "The Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies' Sovereign and Corporate Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 23628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Blattner, Tobias Sebastian & Joyce, Michael A. S., 2016. "Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE," Working Paper Series 1957, European Central Bank.
    58. Albagli, Elias & Ceballos, Luis & Claro, Sebastian & Romero, Damian, 2019. "Channels of US monetary policy spillovers to international bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 447-473.
    59. Sinha, Arunima, 2015. "Government debt, learning and the term structure," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 268-289.
    60. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2014. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 20117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    61. Hudepohl, Tom & Malderez, Suzanne, 2024. "The use of the Eurosystem’s monetary policy instruments and its monetary policy implementation framework in 2022 and 2023," Occasional Paper Series 355, European Central Bank.
    62. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Fuest, Angela & Gebhardt, Heinz & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2014. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Nur vorübergehende Störung - Aufschwung bleibt intakt," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 65(3), pages 39-81.
    63. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle St‐Pierre & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 1029-1055, August.
    64. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2010. "Unconventional Monetary Policies: An Appraisal," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 53-89, September.
    65. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2013. "A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income," Working Papers 14-01, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    66. Margaux MacDonald, 2016. "International Capital Market Frictions And Spillovers From Quantitative Easing," Working Paper 1346, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    67. Schrimpf, Paul & Kearns, Jonathan & Ferrari, Massimo, 2017. "Monetary policy's rising FX impact in the era of ultra-low rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11918, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    68. Michael D. Bauer & Aeimit K. Lakdawala & Philippe Mueller, 2021. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2019-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    69. Stéphane Lhuissier & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Debt Structure," Post-Print hal-04459541, HAL.
    70. Michael D. Bauer, 2012. "Fed asset buying and private borrowing rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may21.
    71. Aysun, Uluc & Jeon, Kiyoung & Kabukcuoglu, Zeynep, 2018. "Is the credit channel alive? Firm-level evidence on the sensitivity of borrowing spreads to monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 305-319.
    72. William B English & J David López-Salido & Robert J Tetlow, 2015. "The Federal Reserve’s Framework for Monetary Policy: Recent Changes and New Questions," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 22-70, May.
    73. David O. Lucca & Jonathan H. Wright, 2024. "The Narrow Channel of Quantitative Easing: Evidence from YCC Down Under," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(2), pages 1055-1085, April.
    74. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : a speech the 2019 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets at the Un," Speech 1038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    75. Itay Goldstein & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2018. "Following the Money: Evidence for the Portfolio Balance Channel of Quantitative Easing," Staff Working Papers 18-33, Bank of Canada.
    76. Ippei Fujiwara & Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Kozo Ueda, 2015. "Policy regime change against chronic deflation? Policy option under a long-term liquidity trap," Globalization Institute Working Papers 233, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    77. Michele Cavallo & Marco Del Negro & W. Scott Frame & Jamie Grasing & Benjamin A. Malin & Carlo Rosa, 2018. "Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization," Working Papers 747, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    78. Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
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    81. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2016. "Rules versus Human Beings, and the Mandate of the ECB," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 68-87.
    82. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Jérôme Creel & Caroline Bozou, 2023. "The conditionality of monetary policy instruments," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    83. Thomas B. King, 2016. "Expectation and Duration at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Paper Series WP-2016-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    84. Song, Zhaogang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2018. "Quantitative easing auctions of Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 103-124.
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    86. Tarek Chebbi, 2021. "The response of precious metal futures markets to unconventional monetary surprises in the presence of uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1897-1916, April.
    87. Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta & Keagile Lesame, 2020. "Dynamic Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on International REITs," Working Papers 202020, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    88. Altavilla, Carlo & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Quaedvlieg, Rogier, 2024. "Macro and micro of external finance premium and monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 2934, European Central Bank.
    89. Abeer Reza & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2015. "Quantitative Easing as a Policy Tool Under the Effective Lower Bound," Discussion Papers 15-14, Bank of Canada.
    90. van der Zwan, Terri & Kole, Erik & van der Wel, Michel, 2024. "Heterogeneous macro and financial effects of ECB asset purchase programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
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    110. Elías Albagli & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Diego Saravia, 2016. "U.S. Monetary Spillovers to Latin America: The Role of Long-term Interest Rates," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 9, pages 285-307, Central Bank of Chile.
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    260. Rafael Cezar & Maéva Silvestrini, 2021. "Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the International Investment Position," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 241-263.
    261. Christopher Hanes, 2019. "Quantitative Easing in the 1930s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1169-1207, August.
    262. Kei Imakubo & Jouchi Nakajima, 2015. "Estimating inflation risk premia from nominal and real yield curves using a shadow-rate model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    263. John Kandrac & Bernd Schlusche, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Bank Risk Taking: Evidence from Lending," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-125, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    264. Kaoru Hosono & Shogo Isobe, 2014. "The Financial Market Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policies in the U.S., the U.K., the Eurozone, and Japan," Discussion papers ron259, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    265. Rossi, Barbara, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: How to Do It And What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    266. Juhro, Solikin M. & Anglingkusumo, Reza, 2021. "The Impact of Post-GFC Monetary Policy in the US on Capital Flows to the SEACEN Economies," MPRA Paper 115721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    267. Fatemeh Salimi, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," Working Papers halshs-03007904, HAL.
    268. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Thomas B. King & Anna Orlik & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2020. "Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    269. J. Benson Durham, 2013. "More on U.S. Treasury term premiums: spot and expected measures," Staff Reports 658, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    270. Steeley, James M., 2015. "The side effects of quantitative easing: Evidence from the UK bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 303-336.
    271. John Kandrac & Bernd Schlusche, 2021. "Quantitative Easing and Bank Risk Taking: Evidence from Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 635-676, June.
    272. Lüdering, Jochen & Tillmann, Peter, 2020. "Monetary policy on twitter and asset prices: Evidence from computational text analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    273. Andrew Filardo & Boris Hofmann, 2014. "Forward guidance at the zero lower bound," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    274. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    275. Fatemeh Salimi Namin, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2037, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    276. Silvia T. Trifonova, 2023. "New Trends In The European Central Bank Monetary Policy," Economy & Business Journal, International Scientific Publications, Bulgaria, vol. 17(1), pages 39-60.
    277. Eric M. Engen & Thomas Laubach & David L. Reifschneider, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    278. Chang, Jui-Chuan Della & Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2018. "The asymmetric effects of U.S. large-scale asset purchases on the volatility of the Canadian dollar futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 15-28.
    279. Marie‐Helene Gagnon & Celine Gimet, 2020. "Unconventional economic policies and sentiment: An international assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1544-1591, June.

Articles

  1. Michael D Bauer & Carolin E Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2024. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(4), pages 2227-2278.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Michael Bauer & Mikhail Chernov, 2024. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 173-217, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Michael D. Bauer & Ben S. Bernanke & Eric Milstein, 2023. "Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 77-100, Winter.

    Cited by:

    1. Beck, Roland & Berganza, Juan Carlos & Brüggemann, Axel & Cezar, Rafael & Eijking, Carlijn & Eller, Markus & Fuentes, Alberto & Alves, Joel Graça & Kreitz, Lilian & Marsilli, Clement & Moder, Isabella, 2023. "Recent advances in the literature on capital flow management," Occasional Paper Series 317, European Central Bank.
    2. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin E. Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2022. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10182, CESifo.
    3. Akkaya, Yıldız & Bitter, Lea & Brand, Claus & Fonseca, Luís, 2024. "A statistical approach to identifying ECB monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2994, European Central Bank.
    4. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Müller, Gernot & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 18427, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Willem THORBECKE, 2023. "Sectoral Evidence on Indonesian Economic Performance after the Pandemic," Discussion papers 23071, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred & Lund-Thomsen, Frederik, 2023. "Quantifying financial stability trade-offs for monetary policy: a quantile VAR approach," Working Paper Series 2833, European Central Bank.
    8. Guimaraes, Rodrigo & Pinter, Gabor & Wijnandts, Jean-Charles, 2023. "The liquidity state-dependence of monetary policy transmission," Bank of England working papers 1045, Bank of England.
    9. Karau, Sören, 2024. "Relative monetary policy and exchange rates," Discussion Papers 40/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Walz, Stefan, 2024. "How does the fed affect corporate credit costs? Default risk, creditor segmentation and the post-FOMC drift," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    11. Zoë Arnaut-Hull & Michael D. Bauer, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2024(07), pages 1-6, February.
    12. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.

  4. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "An Alternative Explanation for the "Fed Information Effect"," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(3), pages 664-700, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1255-1270, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2022. "Current Recession Risk According to the Yield Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(11), pages 1-05, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Mary C. Daly, 2022. "The Singularity of the Dual Mandate," Speech 94862, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  8. Michael D Bauer & Aeimit Lakdawala & Philippe Mueller, 2022. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1290-1308.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 399-448.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin E. Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2022. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10182, CESifo.
    2. Francisco Serranito & Nicolas Himounet & Julien Vauday, 2023. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Eric C. Engstrom & Steven A. Sharpe, 2019. "The Near-Term Forward Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator: A Less Distorted Mirror," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(4), pages 37-49, October.
    4. Lael Brainard, 2018. "Sustaining Full Employment and Inflation around Target : a speech at the Forecasters Club of New York, New York, New York, May 31, 2018," Speech 1005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    6. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Layal MansourIshrakieh & Leila Dagher & Sadika El Hariri, 2020. "A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country : The case of Lebanon," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 43-52.
    8. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    9. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "The Slope of the Term Structure and Recessions: The Pre-Fed Evidence, 1857-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 13013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Richard C K Burdekin & Pierre L Siklos, 2022. "Armageddon and the stock market: US, Canadian and Mexican market responses to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis," CAMA Working Papers 2022-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Iqbal, Najaf & Umar, Zaghum & Ruman, Asif M. & Jiang, Shaohua, 2024. "The term structure of yield curve and connectedness among ESG investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    12. Qionghua Chu, 2023. "Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 8: New Zealand Prospects while Yield Curve Inverts in Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Era," Papers 2311.06718, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    13. Stuart, Rebecca, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972-2018," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2020-03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    14. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Working Papers 20-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    15. Ana B. Galvão & Michael T. Owyang, 2020. "Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data," Working Papers 2020-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2022.
    16. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2024. "Predicting recessions using VIX–yield curve cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 409-422.
    17. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-17, December.
    18. Gregory de Walque & Thomas Lejeune & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2023. "Empirical DSGE model evaluation with interest rate expectations measures and preferences over safe assets," Working Paper Research 433, National Bank of Belgium.
    19. Jaehyuk Choi & Desheng Ge & Kyu Ho Kang & Sungbin Sohn, 2021. "Yield Spread Selection in Predicting Recession Probabilities: A Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2101.09394, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    20. Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk & David Kelley, 2018. "Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?," Working Paper Series WP-2018-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    21. Poza, Carlos & Monge, Manuel, 2020. "A real time leading economic indicator based on text mining for the Spanish economy. Fractional cointegration VAR and Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 163-175.
    22. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
    23. Erhard RESCHENHOFER & Thomas STARK, 2019. "Forecasting the Yield Curve with Dynamic Factors," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 101-113, March.
    24. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2024. "Low interest rates and the predictive content of the yield curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    25. Emanuel Kopp & Peter D. Williams, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium," IMF Working Papers 2018/140, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Ye, Zhen & Zhang, Fangzhu & Coffman, D’Maris & Xia, Senmao & Wang, Zhifeng & Zhu, Zhonghua, 2022. "China’s urban construction investment bond: Contextualising a financial tool for local government," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    27. Lin, Jilei & Eck, Daniel J., 2021. "Minimizing post-shock forecasting error through aggregation of outside information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1710-1727.
    28. Schlömer, Johnny Barrelli & Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus, 2024. "Near-term forward rate spread and commodity index relationship with real economic activity in Brazil," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    29. Todd Henry & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2020. "Forecasting Economic Activity Using the Yield Curve: Quasi-Real-Time Applications for New Zealand, Australia and the US," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2259, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    30. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2018. "Can Yield Curve Inversions Be Predicted?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2018(06), pages 1-6, July.
    31. Monge, Manuel & Claudio-Quiroga, Gloria & Poza, Carlos, 2024. "Chinese economic behavior in times of covid-19. A new leading economic indicator based on Google trends," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    32. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2021. "Systemic risk measures and distribution forecasting of macroeconomic shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 178-196.

  12. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Jos'e-Manuel Pe~na & Fernando Su'arez & Omar Larr'e & Domingo Ram'irez & Arturo Cifuentes, 2023. "A Modified CTGAN-Plus-Features Based Method for Optimal Asset Allocation," Papers 2302.02269, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    2. Harold M. Hastings & Tai Young-Taft & Thomas Wang, 2019. "When to Ease Off the Brakes--and Hopefully Prevent Recessions," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_929, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Francisco Serranito & Nicolas Himounet & Julien Vauday, 2023. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    4. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 119-148, September.
    5. Hauber, Philipp, 2019. "Zur Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den Vereinigten Staaten," Kiel Insight 2019.14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    7. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819, February.
    8. Macaulay, Alistair & Song, Wenting, 2022. "Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media," MPRA Paper 113620, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    10. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "A tale of two recession-derivative indicators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 925-947, August.
    11. Fernando Garcia Alvarado, 2022. "Detecting crisis vulnerability using yield spread interconnectedness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3864-3880, October.
    12. Pyung Kun Chu, 2021. "Forecasting Recessions with Financial Variables and Temporal Dependence," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-14, August.
    13. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Working Papers 20-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2019 - Weltkonjunktur bleibt vorerst ohne Schwung [World Economy Winter 2019 - Global growth remains sluggish for the time being]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Sabes, David & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2023. "Do yield curve inversions predict recessions in the euro area?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2019. "Economic Determinants of Oil Futures Volatility: A Term Structure Perspective," Research Paper Series 401, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    17. Jaehyuk Choi & Desheng Ge & Kyu Ho Kang & Sungbin Sohn, 2021. "Yield Spread Selection in Predicting Recession Probabilities: A Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2101.09394, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    18. Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Alice Carole Thomas & Jianxin Wang, 2024. "Hedging pressure and oil volatility: Insurance versus liquidity demands," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 252-280, February.
    19. Matthieu Bussière & Stéphane Lhuissier, 2024. "What does an inversion of the yield curve tell us? [Que signifie l’inversion d’une courbe des taux ?]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 250.
    20. Knut Lehre Seip & Dan Zhang, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Accuracy and Timing of a Parsimonious Forecasting Model," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-16, May.
    21. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.

  13. Michael D. Bauer, 2018. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 196-211, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 511-553.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Michael D. Bauer, 2017. "A New Conundrum in the Bond Market?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Ana Aguilar & María Diego-Fernández & Rocio Elizondo & Jessica Roldán-Peña, 2022. "Term premium dynamics and its determinants: the Mexican case," BIS Working Papers 993, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Kučera, Adam, 2020. "Identification of triggers of U.S. yield curve movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    4. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.

  16. Michael D. Bauer, 2017. "Bridging the Gap: Forecasting Interest Rates with Macro Trends," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Kladívko, Kamil & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Do market participants’ forecasts of financial variables outperform the random-walk benchmark?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    2. Kiss, Tamás & Kladivko, Kamil & Silfverberg, Oliwer & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Market Participants or the Random Walk – Who Forecasts Better? Evidence from Micro Level Survey Data," Working Papers 2023:2, Örebro University, School of Business.

  17. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Why Are Long-Term Interest Rates So Low?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Daehwan & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "Long-term foreign exchange risk premia and inflation risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Paul Hubert & Jérôme Creel & Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Are European bond markets overshooting?," Working Papers hal-03471799, HAL.

  18. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Optimal policy and market-based expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    2. Dash, Pradyumna & Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Devaguptapu, Adviti, 2020. "Assessing the (de-)anchoring of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez, 2016. "Differing views on long-term inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Woon Gyu Choi & Mr. David Cook, 2018. "Policy Conflicts and Inflation Targeting: The Role of Credit Markets," IMF Working Papers 2018/072, International Monetary Fund.

  20. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Nominal Interest Rates and the News," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 295-332, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and the News," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 1-40, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Michael D. Bauer & Erin McCarthy, 2015. "Can we rely on market-based inflation forecasts?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot, 2022. "La hausse de l’inflation peut-elle modifier l’ancrage des anticipations ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03794336, HAL.
    2. Swinkels, Laurens, 2018. "Simulating historical inflation-linked bond returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 374-389.
    3. Christophe Blot, 2022. "La hausse de l’inflation peut-elle modifier l’ancrage des anticipations ?," Post-Print hal-03794336, HAL.
    4. Dash, Pradyumna & Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Devaguptapu, Adviti, 2020. "Assessing the (de-)anchoring of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Yury Perevyshin, 2024. "Analysts' Inflation Expectations vs Univariate Models of Inflation Forecasting in the Russian Economy," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(2), pages 54-76, June.
    6. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    7. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    8. Ricardo Sousa & James Yetman, 2016. "Inflation expectations and monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 41-67, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2021. "The reaction of inflation forecasts to news about the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 256-264.

  23. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 323-337, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
    2. Sangyong Joo & Daehwan Kim & Jeffrey Nilsen, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates in Korea: A Decomposition Analysis," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 37, pages 327-366.
    3. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2015. "Testing the expectations hypothesis with survey forecasts: The impacts of consumer sentiment and the zero lower bound in an I(2) CVAR," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 85-101.
    4. Irma Alonso & Pedro Serrano & Antoni Vaello-Sebastià, 2021. "The impact of heterogeneous unconventional monetary policies on the expectations of market crashes," Working Papers 2127, Banco de España.
    5. Hakan Berument & Richard T. Froyen, 2015. "Monetary policy and interest rates under inflation targeting in Australia and New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 171-188, August.
    6. Dora Xia & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2018. "The negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 703, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2024. "A Multicountry Model of the Term Structures of Interest Rates with a GVAR," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2024003, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    8. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Rodrigo Vergara & Elías Albagli, 2015. "Tasas de Interés de Largo Plazo en Economías Desarrolladas: Tendencias Recientes e Implicancias de Política Monetaria en Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 52, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2018. "(Un)expected Monetary Policy Shocks and Term Premia," 2018 Meeting Papers 102, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Amisano, Gianni & Tristani, Oreste, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks, monetary policy and long-term interest rates," Working Paper Series 2279, European Central Bank.
    12. Adam Kucera & Evzen Kocenda & Ales Marsal, 2022. "Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Working Papers IES 2022/04, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2022.
    13. Halberstadt, Arne, 2023. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 25-39.
    14. Junko Koeda & Atushi Sekine, 2021. "Nelson-Siegel Decay Factor and Term Premia in Japan," Working Papers 2106, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    15. Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2016. "Nominal term structure and term premia: evidence from Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(29), pages 2721-2735, June.
    16. Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 338-341, January.
    17. Anne Lundgaard Hansen, 2018. "Volatility-Induced Stationarity and Error-Correction in Macro-Finance Term Structure Modeling," Discussion Papers 18-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    18. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    19. Kim, Daehwan & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "Long-term foreign exchange risk premia and inflation risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    20. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    21. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2017. "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Elizondo Rocío, 2023. "The Three Intelligible Factors of the Yield Curve in Mexico," Working Papers 2023-13, Banco de México.
    23. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.
    24. Robert J. Hodrick & Tuomas Tomunen, 2018. "Taking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample: More Data, Additional Currencies, and FX Implications," NBER Working Papers 25092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Ji Zhang & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2017. "A shadow rate New Keynesian model," 2017 Meeting Papers 11, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    26. Mirko Abbritti & Luis Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Term Structure Persistence," Faculty Working Papers 26/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    27. Binder Carola Conces, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and household inflation uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-20, June.
    28. Ichiue, Hibiki & Shimizu, Yuhei, 2015. "Determinants of long-term yields: A panel data analysis of major countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 44-55.
    29. Liu, Yan & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Reconstructing the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1395-1425.
    30. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "A re-evaluation of the term spread as a leading indicator," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 476-492.
    31. Duarte, Diogo & Saporito, Yuri F., 2019. "Endogenous asymmetric money illusion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    32. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    33. Berardi, Andrea, 2023. "Term premia and short rate expectations in the euro area," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    34. Schupp, Fabian & Geiger, Felix, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181529, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    35. Goliński, Adam, 2021. "Monetary policy at the zero lower bound: Information in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    36. Ana Aguilar & María Diego-Fernández & Rocio Elizondo & Jessica Roldán-Peña, 2022. "Term premium dynamics and its determinants: the Mexican case," BIS Working Papers 993, Bank for International Settlements.
    37. Andrea Berardi & Alberto Plazzi, 2019. "Dissecting the Yield Curve: The International Evidence," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-73, Swiss Finance Institute.
    38. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Curi, Alexandre, 2017. "Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility and inflation risk premium," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 46-61.
    39. Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-086, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    40. Luis Ceballos & Damián Romero, 2015. "Decomposing Long-Term Interest Rates: An International Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 767, Central Bank of Chile.
    41. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.
    42. Emiliano Luttini & Michael Pedersen, 2015. "Bank's Price Setting and Lending Maturity: Evidence from an Inflation- Targeting Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 762, Central Bank of Chile.
    43. Januj Juneja, 2018. "Empirical performance of Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models in the presence of autocorrelation misspecification bias," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 695-715, April.
    44. Giuseppe Grande & Adriana Grasso & Gabriele Zinna, 2019. "The effectiveness of the ECB’s asset purchases at the lower bound," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 541, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    45. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    46. Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Term Premium as a Leading Macroeconomic Indicator," Working Papers 201613, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    47. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2016. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Working Paper Series 324, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    48. Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao & Dimitris Korobilis, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets?," Working Papers 2015_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    49. Halberstadt, Arne, 2021. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," Discussion Papers 27/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    50. Juneja, Januj A., 2016. "Financial crises and estimation bias in international bond markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 593-607.
    51. Tommaso Tornese, 2023. "A Euro Area Term Structure Model with Time Varying Exposures," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23199, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    52. Eric McCoy, 2019. "A Calibration of the Term Premia to the Euro Area," European Economy - Discussion Papers 110, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    53. Vázquez, Jesús & Aguilar, Pablo, 2021. "Adaptive learning with term structure information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    54. Sungjun Cho & Liu Liu, 2023. "Correcting estimation bias in regime switching dynamic term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1093-1127, October.
    55. Tsz-Kin Chung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Ka-Fai Li, 2015. "Term-Structure Modelling at the Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Estimating the Term Premium," Working Papers 212015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    56. Goliński, Adam & Spencer, Peter, 2017. "The advantages of using excess returns to model the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 163-181.

  24. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Michael D. Bauer & Jens H. E. Christensen, 2014. "Financial market outlook for inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Sara Cecchetti & Filippo Natoli & Laura Sigalotti, 2015. "Tail comovement in option-implied inflation expectations as an indicator of anchoring," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1025, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Stefano Neri & Guido Bulligan & Sara Cecchetti & Francesco Corsello & Andrea Papetti & Marianna Riggi & Concetta Rondinelli & Alex Tagliabracci, 2022. "On the anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 712, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Filippo Natoli & Laura Sigalotti, 2018. "Tail Co-movement in Inflation Expectations as an Indicator of Anchoring," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 35-71, January.
    4. Michael D. Bauer & Erin McCarthy, 2015. "Can we rely on market-based inflation forecasts?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Yifan Cao & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2014. "Will inflation remain low?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Sara Cecchetti & Davide Fantino & Alessandro Notarpietro & Marianna Riggi & Alex Tagliabracci & Andrea Tiseno & Roberta Zizza, 2021. "Inflation expectations in the euro area: indicators, analyses and models used at Banca d’Italia," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 612, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

  26. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Michael D. Bauer, 2014. "Options-based expectations of future policy rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2013. "A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income," Working Papers 14-01, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    2. Roc Armenter, 2015. "On the use of market-based probabilities for policy decisions," Working Papers 15-44, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

  28. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.

    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Franziska L Ohnsorge & Marcin Wolski & Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang, 2014. "Safe Havens, Feedback Loops, and Shock Propagation in Global Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 2014/081, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Andrew B. Martinez & Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2020. "Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Working Papers 2020-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

  29. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Expectations for monetary policy liftoff," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov18.

    Cited by:

    1. Roc Armenter, 2015. "On the use of market-based probabilities for policy decisions," Working Papers 15-44, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Fernanda Nechio, 2014. "Fed tapering news and emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Sri Hari NAIDU. A & Phanindra GOYARI & Bandi KAMAIAH, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yields in emerging economies: Some panel inferences," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 101-118, Autumn.
    4. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Staff Working Papers 14-53, Bank of Canada.

  30. Michael D. Bauer, 2012. "Monetary policy and interest rate uncertainty," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec24.

    Cited by:

    1. Gabriela Nodari, 2013. "Financial Regulation Policy Uncertainty and Credit Spreads in the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0170, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    2. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2018. "The growing impact of US monetary policy on emerging financial markets: Evidence from India," Working Papers 2018-9, Michigan State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Rainone, Edoardo, 2020. "The network nature of over-the-counter interest rates," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    4. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 20-36.
    5. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "What drives cross-market correlations during the United States Q.E.?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2014. "Stale forward guidance," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-027, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    7. Kaminska, Iryna & Roberts-Sklar, Matt, 2018. "Volatility in equity markets and monetary policy rate uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 68-83.
    8. Yoshito Funashima, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and unconventional monetary policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(3), pages 278-292, June.
    9. Shaikh, Imlak & Vallabh, Priyanka, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty and gold price in India: Evidence from Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) review," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Perceived monetary policy uncertainty," MPRA Paper 114964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    12. Ryan Rholes & Luba Petersen, 2020. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Discussion Papers dp20-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    13. Bo Young Chang & Bruno Feunou, 2013. "Measuring Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Using Implied Volatility and Realized Volatility," Staff Working Papers 13-37, Bank of Canada.
    14. Rholes, Ryan & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 320-341.
    15. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

  31. Michael D. Bauer, 2012. "Fed asset buying and private borrowing rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may21.

    Cited by:

    1. Barroso, João Barata R.B. & da Silva, Luiz A. Pereira & Sales, Adriana Soares, 2016. "Quantitative easing and related capital flows into Brazil: Measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 102-122.
    2. Kazuo Ueda, 2013. "Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy under Abenomics," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 252-269, December.
    3. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2017. "The Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies' Sovereign and Corporate Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 23628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. J. Boeckx & N. Cordemans & M. Dossche, 2013. "Causes and implications of the low level of the risk-free interest rate," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 63-88, September.
    5. Carlos Carvalho & Eric Hsu & Fernanda Nechio, 2016. "Fed communication and the zero lower bound," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    7. Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Satoshi Ikeda, 2016. "Stock Market Responses Under Quantitative Easing: State Dependence and Transparency in Monetary Policy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 560-580, December.

  32. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 454-467, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
    2. Lloyd, Simon, 2018. "Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: overnight indexed swaps and the term structure," Bank of England working papers 763, Bank of England.
    3. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Nominal interest rates and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
    5. Ron Alquist & Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2014. "What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?," Staff Working Papers 14-42, Bank of Canada.
    6. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "How much of bank credit risk is sovereign risk? Evidence from the eurozone," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 990, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5241, CESifo.
    8. Dora Xia & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2018. "The negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 703, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2017. "Optimal Estimation of Multi-Country Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Using Linear Regressions," Staff Working Papers 17-33, Bank of Canada.
    10. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    12. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models," Working Paper Series 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2018. "A Shadow Rate or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea L., 2016. "Below the zero lower bound: A shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area," Discussion Papers 32/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Thomas F. Cosimano & Jun Ma & Ms. Celine Rochon, 2017. "What’s Different about Bank Holding Companies?," IMF Working Papers 2017/026, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?," Working Paper Series 2013-39, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Makram El-Shagi & Lin Zhang, 2017. "Trade Effects of Silver Price Fluctuations in 19th Century China: A Macro Approach," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2017/5, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    18. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2023. "Can we use high-frequency yield data to better understand the effects of monetary policy and its communication? Yes and no!," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2023-03 Classification-E4, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    19. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2018. "(Un)expected Monetary Policy Shocks and Term Premia," 2018 Meeting Papers 102, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Yong, Chen & Dingming, Liu, 2019. "How does government spending news affect interest rates? Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    22. Meldrum, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt, 2015. "Long-run priors for term structure models," Bank of England working papers 575, Bank of England.
    23. Adam Kucera & Evzen Kocenda & Ales Marsal, 2022. "Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Working Papers IES 2022/04, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2022.
    24. Halberstadt, Arne, 2023. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 25-39.
    25. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2023. "Sovereign yield curves and the COVID-19 in emerging markets," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2023010, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    26. Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2016. "Nominal term structure and term premia: evidence from Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(29), pages 2721-2735, June.
    27. Albagli, Elias & Ceballos, Luis & Claro, Sebastian & Romero, Damian, 2019. "Channels of US monetary policy spillovers to international bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 447-473.
    28. Januj Juneja, 2015. "An evaluation of alternative methods used in the estimation of Gaussian term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-24, January.
    29. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2014. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 20117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Hitesh Doshi & Kris Jacobs & Rui Liu, 2021. "Information in the Term Structure: A Forecasting Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5255-5277, August.
    31. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2013. "A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income," Working Papers 14-01, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    32. Al-Zoubi, Haitham A., 2019. "Bond and option prices with permanent shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 272-290.
    33. Jonathan Hambur & Richard Finlay, 2018. "Affine Endeavour: Estimating a Joint Model of the Nominal and Real Term Structures of Interest Rates in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    34. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "On bank credit risk: systemic or bank-specific? Evidence from the US and UK," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 951, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    35. Creal, Drew D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2015. "Estimation of affine term structure models with spanned or unspanned stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 60-81.
    36. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2013. "A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Staff Working Papers 13-10, Bank of Canada.
    37. El-Shagi, Makram, 2019. "Rationality tests in the presence of instabilities in finite samples," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 242-246.
    38. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Sustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Bank of England working papers 914, Bank of England, revised 28 Apr 2021.
    39. Sriananthakumar, Sivagowry, 2015. "Approximate Non-Similar critical values based tests vs Maximized Monte Carlo tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 387-394.
    40. Michael D. Bauer & Christopher J. Neely, 2012. "International channels of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2012-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    41. Lemke, Wolfgang & Werner, Thomas, 2017. "Dissecting long-term Bund yields in the run-up to the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme," Working Paper Series 2106, European Central Bank.
    42. Dmitriy Stolyarov & Linda L. Tesar, 2019. "Interest Rate Trends in a Global Context," Working Papers wp402, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    43. Engel, Charles & Kazakova, Ekaterina & Wang, Mengqi & Xiang, Nan, 2021. "A Reconsideration of the Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity for the U.S. Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 15872, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    44. Yoichi Ueno, 2017. "Term Structure Models with Negative Interest Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 17-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    45. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2014. "Bias-Correction in Vector Autoregressive Models: A Simulation Study," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, March.
    46. El-Shagi, Makram, 2017. "Dealing with small sample bias in post-crisis samples," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-8.
    47. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2024. "Can we Use High‐Frequency Data to Better Understand the Effects of Monetary Policy and its Communication? Yes and No!," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(328), pages 3-43, March.
    48. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Maral Shamloo, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Long-Term Yields in Small Open Economies," Staff Working Papers 17-26, Bank of Canada.
    49. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    50. Martin Møller Andreasen & Kasper Jørgensen & Andrew Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," CREATES Research Papers 2019-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    51. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2018. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," Working Paper Series 2017-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    52. Meldrum, Andrew & Raczko, Marek & Spencer, Peter, 2018. "The information in the joint term structures of bond yields," Bank of England working papers 772, Bank of England.
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  33. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "Signals from unconventional monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.21.

    Cited by:

    1. Banerjee, Rhythm, 2024. "Shifting Tides: the Effect of Institutional Divestments on the Global Market," MPRA Paper 121922, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Apr 2024.
    2. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    3. Leo Krippner & Sandra Eickmeier & Julia von Borstel, 2015. "The interest rate pass-through in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Lawrence Kryzanowski & Jie Zhang & Rui Zhong, 2021. "Currency hedging and quantitative easing: Evidence from global bond markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 555-597, June.
    5. Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, 2017. "The impact of quantitative easing on aggregate mutual fund flows in the UK," Working Papers 20171704, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    6. Sri Hari NAIDU. A & Phanindra GOYARI & Bandi KAMAIAH, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yields in emerging economies: Some panel inferences," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 101-118, Autumn.
    7. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2012. "Where would the federal funds rate be, if it could be negative?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.

  34. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "What moves the interest rate term structure?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.7.

    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Sohrab Rafiq, 2015. "How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates?," IMF Working Papers 2015/094, International Monetary Fund.

Chapters

  1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2022. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 87-155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.
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