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Estimating DSGE models with zero interest rate policy

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  • Kulish, Mariano
  • Morley, James
  • Robinson, Tim

Abstract

We propose estimating DSGE models in which the central bank fixes the policy rate for an extended period of time and apply our approach to estimate expected durations of the Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policy since 2009. We find a large increase in expected duration in 2011 with the move to calendar-based guidance and a decrease in 2013 with the ‘Taper tantrum’. These changes are identified by the influence of expected duration on output, inflation and interest rates at longer maturities. The structural model measures the severity of the zero lower bound constraint and the effects of unconventional policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kulish, Mariano & Morley, James & Robinson, Tim, 2017. "Estimating DSGE models with zero interest rate policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 35-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:88:y:2017:i:c:p:35-49
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.05.003
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Zero lower bound; Forward guidance; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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