IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/2013-033.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Evaluation of Event-Study Evidence on the Effectiveness of the FOMC’s LSAP Program: Are the Announcement Effects Identified?

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel L. Thornton

Abstract

The consensus in monetary policy circles that the Fed?s large-scale asset purchases, known as quantitative easing (QE), have significantly reduced long-term yields is due in part to event studies, which show that long-term yields decline on QE announcement days. However, little attention has been given to whether these announcement effects are identified. This paper contributes to the literature by investigating whether announcement effects associated with the QE announcements used in the literature are identified. The analysis shows that none of announcement effects satisfy the strict requirements for identification. At best, event-studies provide modest evidence that QE reduces long-term yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel L. Thornton, 2013. "An Evaluation of Event-Study Evidence on the Effectiveness of the FOMC’s LSAP Program: Are the Announcement Effects Identified?," Working Papers 2013-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2013/2013-033.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    2. Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 447-466, November.
    3. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    4. Eric T. Swanson, 2011. "Let's Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 151-207.
    5. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
    6. Daniel L. Thornton, 2011. "The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy: the term auction facility," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Nov), pages 439-454.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Berndt, Antje & Yeltekin, Şevin, 2015. "Monetary policy, bond returns and debt dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 119-136.
    2. Daan Steenkamp & Henk Janse van Vuuren & Rossouw van Jaarsveld & Roy Havemann, 2022. "The bond market impact of the South African Reserve Bank bond purchase programme," Working Papers 876, Economic Research Southern Africa.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simon Gilchrist & Vivian Z. Yue & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016. "The Response of Sovereign Bond Yields to U.S. Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 8, pages 257-283, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Rossi, Barbara, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: How to Do It And What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Carlo Rosa, 2012. "How "unconventional" are large-scale asset purchases? The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Staff Reports 560, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
    5. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    6. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "Evidence on the portfolio balance channel of quantitative easing," Working Papers 2012-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Thornton, Daniel L., 2017. "Effectiveness of QE: An assessment of event-study evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 56-74.
    8. Eric M. Engen & Thomas Laubach & David L. Reifschneider, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Guidolin, Massimo & Orlov, Alexei G. & Pedio, Manuela, 2017. "The impact of monetary policy on corporate bonds under regime shifts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 176-202.
    10. Bernhard, Severin & Ebner, Till, 2017. "Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-127.
    11. Simon Gilchrist & Vivian Yue & Egon Zakrajšek, 2019. "U.S. Monetary Policy and International Bond Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(S1), pages 127-161, December.
    12. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2016. "Quantitative Easing: An Underappreciated Success," Policy Briefs PB16-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    13. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2018. "Outside the Box: Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Great Recession and Beyond," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    14. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 48-65, September.
    15. Claus, Edda & Claus, Iris & Krippner, Leo, 2018. "Asset market responses to conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks in the United States," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 270-282.
    16. Ferrari, Massimo & Kearns, Jonathan & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2021. "Monetary policy’s rising FX impact in the era of ultra-low rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    17. Breitenlechner, Max & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    18. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Mr. Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2014. "Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets: Different This Time?," IMF Working Papers 2014/240, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Barbara Rossi, 2018. "Identifying and estimating the effects of unconventional monetary policy in the data: How to do It and what have we learned?," Economics Working Papers 1641, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2020.
    20. Eric T. Swanson, 2016. "Measuring the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 4, pages 105-130, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Oates (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.