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Identifying Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks: A Latent Threshold Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Takeshi Kimura

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Jouchi Nakajima

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new estimation framework for identifying monetary policy shocks in both conventional and unconventional policy regimes using a structural VAR model. Exploiting a latent threshold modeling strategy that induces time-varying shrinkage of the parameters, we explore a recursive identification switching with a time-varying overidentification for the interest rate zero lower bound. We empirically analyze Japan's monetary policy to illustrate the proposed approach for modeling regime-switching between conventional and unconventional monetary policy periods, and find that the proposed model is preferred over a nested standard time-varying parameter VAR model. The estimation results show that increasing bank reserves lowers long-term interest rates in the unconventional policy periods, and that the impulse responses of inflation and the output gap to a bank reserve shock appear to be positive but highly uncertain.

Suggested Citation

  • Takeshi Kimura & Jouchi Nakajima, 2013. "Identifying Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks: A Latent Threshold Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:13-e-7
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Identification; Latent threshold models; Monetary policy; Time-varying parameter VAR; Zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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