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What caused the decline in long-term yields?

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  • Michael D. Bauer
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch

Abstract

Long-term U.S. government bond yields have trended down for more than two decades, but identifying the source of this decline is difficult. A new methodology suggests that reductions in long-run expectations of inflation and inflation-adjusted interest rates have played a significant role in the secular decline in yields. In contrast, standard statistical finance methods appear to overemphasize the effects of lower risk premiums and reduced uncertainty about future inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2013:i:july8:n:2013-19
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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2013/july/cause-decline-long-term-us-government-bond-yields/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 454-467, April.
    2. Sylvain Leduc & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Justin Weidner, 2009. "Disagreement about the inflation outlook," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct5.
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 323-337, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew B. Martinez & Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2020. "Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Working Papers 2020-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    2. Ms. Franziska L Ohnsorge & Marcin Wolski & Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang, 2014. "Safe Havens, Feedback Loops, and Shock Propagation in Global Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 2014/081, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Andrew B. Martinez & Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2022. "Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 143-165, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

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    Keywords

    Government securities - United States;

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